Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[MaxQue]

I was sorta joking about the translator thing, but it was done in 1993, maybe '97 for Manning. To me a bilingual leader is non-negotiable. That's partially why after this debate I decided to switch to Scheer.

Wasn't really an issue because Reform had almost no candidate east of the Ontario. Most of them only got Alliance candidates in 2000.

[RogueBeaver]

More O'Leary: he won't make a final decision till February.

[136or142]

More O'Leary: he won't make a final decision till February.

I wrote previously he'd wait until the last possible moment in order to increase the speculation and to avoid as many of the debates as possible.

I would be genuinely surprised if he didn't get into the race.

[RogueBeaver]

OOC I wonder what Pocklington's name ID was in December 1982.

[adma]

Wasn't really an issue because Reform had almost no candidate east of the Ontario. Most of them only got Alliance candidates in 2000.

Actually, Reform had already established a Maritime foundation in 1993, managing high teen percentages in its NB/NS strong spots...

[DC Al Fine]

Wasn't really an issue because Reform had almost no candidate east of the Ontario. Most of them only got Alliance candidates in 2000.

Actually, Reform had already established a Maritime foundation in 1993, managing high teen percentages in its NB/NS strong spots...

Central Canadians think Canada ends in Gaspe.

[136or142]

Wasn't really an issue because Reform had almost no candidate east of the Ontario. Most of them only got Alliance candidates in 2000.

Actually, Reform had already established a Maritime foundation in 1993, managing high teen percentages in its NB/NS strong spots...

Central Canadians think Canada ends in Gaspe.

Don't be silly, Canada ends (and begins) in Toronto.

[Poirot]

In the December CROP poll on Quebec voting intentions, there was a hypothetical Bernier leader question. CROP lists party names with leaders in the question. There was almost no difference with Bernier as party leader.

Regular result:
Lib 55% NDP 16% Bloc 13% PCC 11% Green 5%

With Bernier leader:
Lib 53% NDP 16% Bloc 13% PCC 13% Green 5%

An increase of 2% is very minimal impact. 

[136or142]

In the December CROP poll on Quebec voting intentions, there was a hypothetical Bernier leader question. CROP lists party names with leaders in the question. There was almost no difference with Bernier as party leader.

Regular result:
Lib 55% NDP 16% Bloc 13% PCC 11% Green 5%

With Bernier leader:
Lib 53% NDP 16% Bloc 13% PCC 13% Green 5%

An increase of 2% is very minimal impact. 

I asked Bernier today on twitter what he thought about the concept of loan guarantees for companies, and within a few hours he responded to me. I quite like him.

[RogueBeaver]

Libertarianism has never been an influential part of conservative politics here, whether it be Mulroneyism or Unionism. Leaving aside Bernier being PNG outside the Beauce.

[Poirot]

Prominent Montreal businessman Daniel Fournier may or may not have considered running 3 weeks ago but there has been no mention since then.

There was an article during the week. Didn't predict if he would run or not. He has been consulting people across the country. 
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201612/13/01-5051116-succession-de-stephen-harper-daniel-fournier-en-consultations-intensives.php

[Poirot]

After consultations, Daniel Fournier has decided  he will not run.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201612/22/01-5054087-100-000-pour-postuler-a-la-succession-de-harper.php

I'm curious to see if the Quebec MPs will start to endorse candidates after the next debate in Quebec City. 

[Poirot]

Dan Lindsay is withdrawing from the leadership race.

[136or142]

To the people in Quebec here, and to the Quebec observers in general, which candidate do you think will win the majority of the point support in Quebec (so, not which candidate do you think will get the most votes, not that the candidate with the most votes and the candidate with the most points will necessarily be different.)

I ask because well known political science professor Nelson Wiseman wrote an article in the Globe and Mail predicting Maxime Bernier as the likely next leader of the Conservative Party on the basis that Wiseman thinks Bernier will dominate Quebec.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/quebecs-power-to-shape-federal-politics/article33447037/

I don't like to be 'ageist' and I like to judge everybody as an individual, but maybe there is something sometimes to the idea that, at least for some people as they get older, they get stuck in the past.

Nelson Wiseman's entire column strikes me as fighting old battles between Quebec and English Canada (or English Speaking Canada.)  As one of the replies there points out, Canada is now much more like other countries with ideological divisions based on urban/rural divides and the like, including, increasingly in Quebec itself.

I suggest it's time for Wiseman to retire.

[RogueBeaver]

Bernier without a doubt. Only Scheer of the serious candidates could really compete, especially since most of them are unilingual and therefore eliminated by default. (As I've said before, unilingualism is a red line for me)

[136or142]

Bernier without a doubt. Only Scheer of the serious candidates could really compete, especially since most of them are unilingual and therefore eliminated by default. (As I've said before, unilingualism is a red line for me)

What about Blaney as his support for the charter of values and identity politics seems to be more in line with Conservatives in Quebec?

[Poirot]

Nelson Wiseman's entire column strikes me as fighting old battles between Quebec and English Canada (or English Speaking Canada.)  As one of the replies there points out, Canada is now much more like other countries with ideological divisions based on urban/rural divides and the like, including, increasingly in Quebec itself.

I read the comments section and someone is refuting the author's statement calling Raitt the establishment candidate claiming it is Scheer. From the Wikipedia CPC leadership page Scheer has 20 Mps supporting him, O'Toole 14 and Raitt only 3.

For a university professor he is not very nuanced (or he is confident of his ability to predict the future). I didn't take the column has a battle between Quebec and English speaking Canada... well in a way yes since the conclusion is Quebec still has outsized influence, like he was complaining Quebec decides everything! I probably don't understand his point because he also talks about the last NDP convention and the next leadership race and Quebec represents about 10% of the votes.

I think it's true there are more divisions within Quebec. There is no more a two party system like decades ago but 3-4 parties at the federal and provincial level. Quebec City and south of it has developped a more conservative, anti-union, anti-state, anti-nationalist culture for example. 

[Poirot]

It's not only Nelson Wiseman who is prediciting a Maxime Bernier win.

In his 2017 predictions Don Martin thinks the same.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-s-political-predictions-for-2017-1.3205387
Michael Den Tandt also chose Mad Max Bernier in his 2017 predictions.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/michael-den-tandt-mad-max-bernier-will-be-the-next-conservative-leader-and-other-predictions-for-2017

They seem to know they are not good in their predictions. I have a hard time picturing Bernier winning. Like Stéphane Dion becoming leader was a shock and surprise, Bernier would be the same. He is not respected or liked by a big part of the population in Quebec. Opinion can change, and becoming leader is an acomplishment and increase your stature. But if you propose policies like privatizing Canada Post, endind supply management farming, you know you will have people against you from the start. His very limited role of government is probably easy to attack by the other parties.     

[DL]

Much of the Conservative base is composed of anti-French bigots who hate bilingualism and are convinced that Quebec gets too much of everything. What happens if the CPC picked Bernier as leader who has a heavy Quebec accent...

[136or142]

Nelson Wiseman's entire column strikes me as fighting old battles between Quebec and English Canada (or English Speaking Canada.)  As one of the replies there points out, Canada is now much more like other countries with ideological divisions based on urban/rural divides and the like, including, increasingly in Quebec itself.

I read the comments section and someone is refuting the author's statement calling Raitt the establishment candidate claiming it is Scheer. From the Wikipedia CPC leadership page Scheer has 20 Mps supporting him, O'Toole 14 and Raitt only 3.

That was me.

[LLR]

Much of the Conservative base is composed of anti-French bigots who hate bilingualism and are convinced that Quebec gets too much of everything. What happens if the CPC picked Bernier as leader who has a heavy Quebec accent...

I'm sure they'd fall in line, seeing that none of the other parties are very good at catering to "bigots" (although some might switch to the NDP, depending on who they choose as leader)

[136or142]

Much of the Conservative base is composed of anti-French bigots who hate bilingualism and are convinced that Quebec gets too much of everything. What happens if the CPC picked Bernier as leader who has a heavy Quebec accent...

I don't know about people who would actually join the Conservative Party, but polls every four years show that even half of Conservative Party supporters would vote for the Democratic candidate for President over the Republican candidate.

I think the view expressed here in the original post is too dismissive of Conservatives.

[DC Al Fine]

Much of the Conservative base is composed of anti-French bigots who hate bilingualism and are convinced that Quebec gets too much of everything. What happens if the CPC picked Bernier as leader who has a heavy Quebec accent...

I don't know about people who would actually join the Conservative Party, but polls every four years show that even half of Conservative Party supporters would vote for the Democratic candidate for President over the Republican candidate.

I think the view expressed here in the original post is too dismissive of Conservatives.

Well, where else would those people go? It's not like someone who's disgusted with Maxime Bernier's language is going to vote for... Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party.

[adma]

Besides, Bernier's atypical-of-Quebecness could be his own best advantage (i.e. the Beauce as Quebec's Alberta, so to speak.)

And of course, he has a kind of "rugged look" more typical of some idealized image of Western conservative politicians (or Mike Harris)

[RogueBeaver]

As I thought she would - but on FOX!