Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Hatman 🍁]

It's truly disgusting and disheartening to hear a doctor want to abolish our health care system. Sad!

[RogueBeaver]

O'Leary is getting in, perhaps as soon as next week.

[RogueBeaver]

Berthold, Paul-Hus, Boucher, Rayes endorse Scheer.

[RogueBeaver]

Anti-elitist Kellie Leitch is an insufferable asshole. She also breakfasted with O'Leary yesterday.

[136or142]

Anti-elitist Kellie Leitch is an insufferable asshole. She also breakfasted with O'Leary yesterday.

She's clearly getting increasingly desperate now that she knows her 'anti elite' shtick is going to be upended by Kevin O'Leary who is far more than she is of a genuine outsider.  This is similar to what happened to Ted Cruz when Donald Trump got in the race, except Cruz at least ended up in second place whereas I think Kellie Leitch's support will collapse to near zero, which is what she deserves to get.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is O'Leary "anti-elite" though? Is he going to want to drain the swamp in Ottawa? I can't see it. The comparisons with Trump end at being a wealthy, self absorbed blowhard reality TV star.

[RogueBeaver]

Leitch wants to unilaterally abolish the Indian Act.

Clarke endorses Bernier.

[136or142]

Is O'Leary "anti-elite" though? Is he going to want to drain the swamp in Ottawa? I can't see it. The comparisons with Trump end at being a wealthy, self absorbed blowhard reality TV star.

The similarity is that both of them lie to their idiot supporters that they are 'anti-elite' when, in reality, they both want to drain the government swamp so that they can then sell it and make millions for themselves.

[DC Al Fine]

Leitch wants to unilaterally abolish the Indian Act.

Yikes, she's getting to be more and more of a problem for the party. Even though we only need 40% for a government, the 'Trump math' is much harder here.  Can't imagine she'll get many second choice votes and our thankfully leadership system makes a candidacy like hers it harder to pull off.

[King of Kensington]

Is O'Leary "anti-elite" though? Is he going to want to drain the swamp in Ottawa? I can't see it. The comparisons with Trump end at being a wealthy, self absorbed blowhard reality TV star.

On what issue is O'Leary a "populist" or break from conservative orthodoxy?  Besides maybe his line about there being no pride in being a warrior.

Canada probably has the most "orthodox" conservatives (i.e. neoliberal economics + neo-con foreign policy) among the Western democracies these days.

[Derpist]

Canada probably has the most "orthodox" conservatives (i.e. neoliberal economics + neo-con foreign policy) among the Western democracies these days.

Yes, that is probably why they are losing.

[RogueBeaver]

O'Leary will run as an above-the-fray moderate.

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Leary will run as an above-the-fray moderate.

nothing moderate about him.

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting Bernier internal has a 3-way tie nationally with Leitch and Raitt, but he dominates here in Quebec. Leitch strategist says they have similar numbers. O'Leary not tested. Yuge grain of salt as with all internals, but those are the only proper polls we'll see.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting Bernier internal has a 3-way tie nationally with Leitch and Raitt, but he dominates here in Quebec. Leitch strategist says they have similar numbers. O'Leary not tested. Yuge grain of salt as with all internals, but those are the only proper polls we'll see.

*Disclaimer about how unreliable internals, leadership polls, and the Canadian electorate in general are*

Noticed Trost is polling well, outdoing Scheer. I guess this makes sense as candidates who stake clear positions and make the news are going to be noticed more. This would explain why Leitch, Raitt and Bernier are doing so well since they are being talked about fairly frequently, and why Scheer is polling so poorly.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, will be interesting to see the lastest fundraising numbers come out in a few weeks. Might give us some insight about who will drop out soon.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Scheer is going to wind up as the Jeb! of this race. 

[Hatman 🍁]

ooh, fun:

Chris Alexander - Rubio?
Bernier - Paul?
Trost - Huckabee
Lemieux - Santorum
Leitch &  O'Leary - TRUMP
Chong - Kasich
Deepak Obhrai - Ben Carson
Erin O'Toole - also Jeb!
Rick Peterson - Jim Gilmore
Lisa Raitt - Snarly Carly
Steven Blaney - Walker?

Seems to be no Ted Cruz candidate. Sad!

[brucejoel99]

ooh, fun:

Chris Alexander - Rubio?
Bernier - Paul?
Trost - Huckabee
Lemieux - Santorum
Leitch &  O'Leary - TRUMP
Chong - Kasich
Deepak Obhrai - Ben Carson
Erin O'Toole - also Jeb!
Rick Peterson - Jim Gilmore
Lisa Raitt - Snarly Carly
Steven Blaney - Walker?

Seems to be no Ted Cruz candidate. Sad!

How 'bout just O'Leary as Trump & Leitch as Cruz?

[RogueBeaver]

Because Leitch was a bleeding-heart moderate until about 5 minutes ago.

[136or142]

I was thinking about this the other day:

1.Rick Peterson - Mark Everson
2.Andrew Saxton - George Pataki
3.Bradley Trost - Mike Huckabee
4.Deepak Obhrai - Lindsey Graham
5.Andrew Scheer - Marco Rubio
6.Lisa Raitt - George Pataki
7.Michael Chong - John Kasich
8.Pierre Lemieux - Rick Santorum
9.Chris Alexander - Chris Christie (if not for their major setback, would have been a serious contender)
10.Erin O'Toole - Jeb Bush
11.Kellie Leitch - Ted Cruz
12.Kevin O'Leary - Donald Trump
13.Steven Blaney - ?
14.Maxime Bernier - Rand Paul

Those are the Republicans I think they most closely resemble, not that I necessarily expect similar results.

[136or142]

Certainly a bit soon, but after the Republican lookalike challenge, I challenge you to all predict the balloting.

Of course, I expect some of the 14 candidates to drop out, which is one reason why I wrote this is 'too soon.'

I did this province by province and these are my total results based on the 338 riding point system.  I have my province by province 'working papers' but I'll leave that out as it would make this post too cumbersome.

1st Ballot
1.Andrew Scheer 24.3%
2.Kevin O'Leary 19.2
3.Maxime Bernier 15.9
4.Michael Chong 8.8
5.Steven Blaney 5.8
6.Erin O'Toole 5.1
7.Lisa Raitt 5.0
8.Chris Alexander 4.0
9.Pierre Lemieux 3.4
10.Bradley Trost 2.9
11.Kellie Leitch 2.8
12.Deepak Obhrai 1.8
13.Andrew Saxton 0.8
14.Rick Peterson 0.3

This isn't a delegated convention and I guess this works by having the 2nd ballot choices for the lowest candidate redistributed, but if this were a delegated convention all but Scheer, O'Leary, Bernier, Chong and Lemieux drop out.  Lemieux remains as the representative of the social conservative wing.

Rick Peterson endorses Maxime Bernier.  Andrew Saxton and Lisa Raitt endorse Michael Chong.  Kellie Leitch releases her delegates not able to get along with anybody and her supporters split between Kevin O'Leary and Pierre Lemieux.  Brad Trost endorses Pierre Lemiex.  Chris Alexander endorses Andrew Scheer as the establishment choice but his delegates split between Scheer, O'Leary and Lemieux, Erin O'Toole endorses Andrew Scheer and Steven Blaney releases his delegates.  (I know there are no delegates)

2nd Ballot
1.Andrew Scheer 34.1%
2.Kevin O'Leary 23.3
3.Maxime Bernier 18.2
4.Michael Chong 16.6
5.Pierre Lemieux 7.9

Pierre Lemieux endorses Andrew Scheer and Michael Chong releases his delegates who split mostly between Scheer and Bernier.

3rd Ballot
1.Andrew Scheer 44.2%
2.Maxime Bernier 28.6
3.Kevin O'Leary 27.2

Kevin O'Leary quits politics.

4th ballot
1.Andrew Scheer 56.8%
2.Maxime Bernier 43.2

[The Other Castro]

O'Leary will enter tomorrow.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/kevin-oleary-conservative-leadership-race-1.3939876

[RogueBeaver]

As usual, debate is a total sh**tshow. Only event I'll watch is results announcement.

[King of Kensington]

I was thinking about this the other day:

1.Rick Peterson - Mark Everson
2.Andrew Saxton - George Pataki
3.Bradley Trost - Mike Huckabee
4.Deepak Obhrai - Lindsey Graham
5.Andrew Scheer - Marco Rubio
6.Lisa Raitt - George Pataki
7.Michael Chong - John Kasich
8.Pierre Lemieux - Rick Santorum
9.Chris Alexander - Chris Christie (if not for their major setback, would have been a serious contender)
10.Erin O'Toole - Jeb Bush
11.Kellie Leitch - Ted Cruz
12.Kevin O'Leary - Donald Trump
13.Steven Blaney - ?
14.Maxime Bernier - Rand Paul

Those are the Republicans I think they most closely resemble, not that I necessarily expect similar results.

Kellie Leitch - Ben Carson