Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[MAINEiac4434]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

[2952-0-0]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!

[MAINEiac4434]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!

It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

[2952-0-0]

Maxime Bernier is okay-ish on some social issues, is boilerplate conservative on some other issues, but his health care plan would basically end the publicly funded system as we know it. He also questioned climate science before "clarifying" that he's merely against political interference in science.

Kevin O'Leary might not be too bad for a Conservative. And to his credit he has explicitly repudiated Trump's well-known nastiness. Unfortunately over the years he's created plenty of attack-ad material (like how Boston is his true home, how it's great that seven people are wealthier than the bottom 50% of the world's population, promising to openly auction off senate seats, how there's nothing proud of serving in the military, etc). Plus, he refused to explicitly promise to seek an MP seat if he's elected leader.

Kellie Leitch is scary, but thankfully lacks all of the communication skills of Trump. What sort of tone-deaf prick would say something like this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrWI-5N34es

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!

It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

I miss the days when it was rare for anyone on this forum to actually support the Liberals. It's too bad that American progressives are only exposed to Trudeau's good side.

[DC Al Fine]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!

It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

I miss the days when it was rare for anyone on this forum to actually support the Liberals. It's too bad that American progressives are only exposed to Trudeau's good side.

Honestly, Trudeau seems like a pretty good fit for a lot of Atlas' centre left.

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!

It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

I miss the days when it was rare for anyone on this forum to actually support the Liberals. It's too bad that American progressives are only exposed to Trudeau's good side.

Honestly, Trudeau seems like a pretty good fit for a lot of Atlas' centre left.

Maybe it's just kids these days. It's been a long time since the Liberals were in power, but people my age remember how disappointing they were.

But anyways, sorry for hijacking the thread.

[MAINEiac4434]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!

It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

I miss the days when it was rare for anyone on this forum to actually support the Liberals. It's too bad that American progressives are only exposed to Trudeau's good side.

Honestly, Trudeau seems like a pretty good fit for a lot of Atlas' centre left.

Maybe it's just kids these days. It's been a long time since the Liberals were in power, but people my age remember how disappointing they were.

But anyways, sorry for hijacking the thread.

No it's fine. Honestly if Jack Layton was still around he'd 1) be prime minister and 2) would love that.

[toaster]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!

It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

She's fairly right wing on immigration.  Not so much on social issues.  She marches every year in Toronto Pride, supports same sex marriage, supports government funding for gender re-assignment surgery, has stated she does not want to re-open the abortion debate, supported adding "gender identity" and "gender expression" to the Human Rights Act and Criminal Code.

I don't agree with her stance on the "Values test", but she is far from being right wing on social issues.

[Vosem]

I'm starting to warm to the idea of O'Leary -- he seems like a much more serious and electable option than Trump, and indeed even the comparison between them looks rather superficial (mostly centered around both of them being "celebrity businessmen"). There are still much better choices in this race, and indeed my first-serious-preference would probably be for Bernier (first-actual-preference being for Flawless Beautiful Deepak ), but I wouldn't be particularly upset about an O'Leary victory (with his lack of French proficiency seeming like his biggest impediment). Leitch, Blaney, and Lemieux seem like the worst options in this race, with Leitch being the worst that has an actual shot at victory.

[RogueBeaver]

Anyone But O'Leary is forming.

[King of Kensington]

O'Leary is often compared to Trump for being a celebrity and outsider businessman who "tells it like it is" but he seems to be pretty much sounding like a fiscal conservative/social liberal.

Maybe the parallel is as much Mulroney as Trump.

[RogueBeaver]

Other candidates are trying to capitalize on Bernier's ideological vulnerabilities, especially supply management, here.

Globe on Bernier's econ plans.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How will O'Leary enter parliament? Move to Harper's empty seat?

[RogueBeaver]

How will O'Leary enter parliament? Move to Harper's empty seat?

Candidate's already been nominated for that seat & by-election will be held in April. Presumably he'd run somewhere in Ontario in the unlikely event he won. Since he's quite dismissive of entering the Commons anytime soon, someone else would serve as parliamentary leader till he did.

[2952-0-0]

Maybe O'Leary sees his internal polls and is actually too chicken to seek a seat in parliament.

[adma]

Presumably he'd run somewhere in Ontario in the unlikely event he won.

Peter Kent's getting old.  (Unless Thornhill's being reserved for somebody with stronger Jewish credentials)

[Poirot]

Other candidates are trying to capitalize on Bernier's ideological vulnerabilities, especially supply management, here.

At the end, it says a Deltell's endorsement could swing some votes. Maybe he will stay neutral. Hard to go for O'Leary when you say speaking French is important. Difficult to go for Bernier if he has dreams of being leader in the future since it could take some time they choose another leader from Quebec. Being a party man maybe he will go to Scheer and that could bring a few needed points. Not sure people will change their mind the close we are to the end.

I like the article gave membership numbers. 65 of 78 ridings have fewer than 100 members.
38 ridings (about half) have less than 30 members which means 27 have betwween 30 and 100 and 13 have over 100 members.

I've read in another article they have about 5000 members and Bernier would like to double that by the end of the campaign. Don't know if it's doable or too ambitious.

What I would like is a poll giving results by region with the main leadership contenders as leader of the party to see who could make gains in Ontario.         

[DC Al Fine]

Presumably he'd run somewhere in Ontario in the unlikely event he won.

Peter Kent's getting old.  (Unless Thornhill's being reserved for somebody with stronger Jewish credentials)

He doesn't really have big ties to any location. Why can't they just find an old guy in the Prairies to stand aside for him?

[RogueBeaver]

Even Ivison, who was relatively bullish on O'Leary recently, is now starting to hedge.

[RogueBeaver]

Bernier is garnering support from the Tamil and Sikh communities, helped by some of Brown's closest friends.

[136or142]

Lisa Raitt says half of the candidates should drop out and that maybe she's one of those who should.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/03/01/lisa-raitt-conservative-leadership-race-2017-debate_n_15079642.html

[Poirot]

Unless candidates need to make another payment, if you don't mind maybe getting not much votes, why not stay in the race. The reason is to stop other people from winning, maybe she would support O'Toole or Scheer.

Read this in the National Post:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I've read Bernier is sometimes refered to as the Albertan from Quebec. No wonder they like him, he sounds like a Reform candidate.

[2952-0-0]

But the longer you stay in the race, the more campaign debts are incurred and the less able you are to support the leader. And since it's a preferential ballot, there is no reason to run to stop an undesirable candidate.

[136or142]

Unless candidates need to make another payment, if you don't mind maybe getting not much votes, why not stay in the race. The reason is to stop other people from winning, maybe she would support O'Toole or Scheer.

Read this in the National Post:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I've read Bernier is sometimes refered to as the Albertan from Quebec. No wonder they like him, he sounds like a Reform candidate.

I think most of Lisa Raitt's support base (such as it is) would go to Michael Chong.

The reason for candidates to drop out is that their being so many candidates in the race has possibly prevented more serious ideas from being debated due to the lack of time in the debates themselves and the prevented the more serious candidates from breaking through through and this has made it that only the sensationalist candidates like Kevin O'Leary and Kellie Leitch have broken through at all.

This is most clearly observed with Andrew Scheer changing from trying to become something of a serious consensus candidate at the beginning of the race to engaging in the usual anti carbon tax nonsense and adopting other B.S populist memes.

It's the old concept of 'too many cooks spoil the broth.'

I think there is clearly a genuine problem with this leadership race but whether too many candidates being in the race is the reason for it,  I don't know.  That aside, there is no question many of the candidates running are fringe candidates at best.