Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[DL]

The thing about have a 14 person preferential ballot system like the Tories have is that it creates this crazy "randomness"...there will be a cluster of candidates in the middle each with 7 or 8% of the vote and who ends up leapfrogging ahead and collecting preferences could depend on who people choose to rank 6th instead of 7th and I wonder if a lot of CPC members might have one or two favourites and one or two people they definitely want to rank dead last and everyone else might just get numbered at random.

I'm not so sure that Raitt's voters would go to Chong. First of all I suspect that she would get far more support than him in the first place. Chong is very well-liked...by Liberals, Greens and New Democrats...his policies are totally out of step with his own party. He is the Canadians equivalent of Arlen Specter running for the GOP nomination in 2008 as a pro-choice socially Liberal Republican (he got 1% some early primaries and then dropped out). If Raitt dropped out I suspect her support would be dispersed among all the other candiadtes who are NOT Kevin O'Leary or Kellie Leitch 

[Vosem]

Raitt is a moderate Conservative; that's fine, and moderate Conservatives are necessary to have in the coalition if we want to have a party that can govern Canada, and they need to feel welcome. Raitt wouldn't be at the top of my preferences, but she wouldn't be at the bottom, either, and I wouldn't be particularly disappointed if Raitt won. By contrast, from what I've seen in the debates, Chong seems like a CINO who holds down a very safe Conservative seat (which came within 3 points of reelecting a PC incumbent in 1993!), and while there may be a spot for him on the fringe of the party, he definitely shouldn't become leader. I'd still rank him ahead of the cuckoo birds like Leitch/Blaney/Lemieux, but still.

A few could be switched around, but I'm solidifying something like this as my list (in a race where I can't vote )

1)   Deepak Obhrai
2)   Rick Peterson
3)   Maxime Bernier
4)   Erin O’Toole
5)   Andrew Saxton
6)   Andrew Scheer
7)   Lisa Raitt
8 )   Chris Alexander
9)   Kevin O’Leary
10)   Michael Chong
11)   Steven Blaney
12)   Pierre Lemieux
13)   Brad Trost
14)   Kellie Leitch

EDIT: fixed formatting

[136or142]

The thing about have a 14 person preferential ballot system like the Tories have is that it creates this crazy "randomness"...there will be a cluster of candidates in the middle each with 7 or 8% of the vote and who ends up leapfrogging ahead and collecting preferences could depend on who people choose to rank 6th instead of 7th and I wonder if a lot of CPC members might have one or two favourites and one or two people they definitely want to rank dead last and everyone else might just get numbered at random.

I'm not so sure that Raitt's voters would go to Chong. First of all I suspect that she would get far more support than him in the first place. Chong is very well-liked...by Liberals, Greens and New Democrats...his policies are totally out of step with his own party. He is the Canadians equivalent of Arlen Specter running for the GOP nomination in 2008 as a pro-choice socially Liberal Republican (he got 1% some early primaries and then dropped out). If Raitt dropped out I suspect her support would be dispersed among all the other candiadtes who are NOT Kevin O'Leary or Kellie Leitch 

Minor correction, Arlen Specter ran for President in 1996.

[136or142]

Raitt is a moderate Conservative; that's fine, and moderate Conservatives are necessary to have in the coalition if we want to have a party that can govern Canada, and they need to feel welcome. Raitt wouldn't be at the top of my preferences, but she wouldn't be at the bottom, either, and I wouldn't be particularly disappointed if Raitt won. By contrast, from what I've seen in the debates, Chong seems like a CINO who holds down a very safe Conservative seat (which came within 3 points of reelecting a PC incumbent in 1993!), and while there may be a spot for him on the fringe of the party, he definitely shouldn't become leader. I'd still rank him ahead of the cuckoo birds like Leitch/Blaney/Lemieux, but still.

A few could be switched around, but I'm solidifying something like this as my list (in a race where I can't vote )

1)   Deepak Obhrai
2)   Rick Peterson
3)   Maxime Bernier
4)   Erin O’Toole
5)   Andrew Saxton
6)   Andrew Scheer
7)   Lisa Raitt
8 )   Chris Alexander
9)   Kevin O’Leary
10)   Michael Chong
11)   Steven Blaney
12)   Pierre Lemieux
13)   Brad Trost
14)   Kellie Leitch

EDIT: fixed formatting

Michael Chong would dispute that he isn't a conservative.  He argues, and I think with some merit, that his views are traditionally conservative, but don't fit into modern conservatism, which he would argue isn't conservative at all, but is simply radical.

[adma]

One thing on behalf of Raitt-Chong: they represent neighbouring ridings encompassing the northern part of Halton Region.

[RogueBeaver]

Bernier tweeted a red pill meme but says it was a purely Matrix reference. Raitt and O'Toole raised eyebrows, Rempel defended.

Coyne on Bernier and Chong's tax plans.

[Njall]

Bernier tweeted a red pill meme but says it was a purely Matrix reference. Raitt and O'Toole raised eyebrows, Rempel defended.

Coyne on Bernier and Chong's tax plans.

Unfortunately (hopefully coincidently), that meme came out around the same time this minor s***storm from the Wildrose club at U of Calgary hit the media: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/wildrose-on-campus-fire-comms-director-1.4012824

[RogueBeaver]

O'Leary vows to go to war with Notley & chop health transfers because of the carbon tax. Might do this to other provinces whose econ policies he dislikes.

[VPH]

Met Deepak Obhrai today! There were about 10-15 people at the event, and he said unironically "Wow this is a big crowd for me!" I got the impression that he definitely knows his campaign is more than a longshot, but I was especially impressed at how personable, down to earth, and well versed he was. Brought up some interesting issues too, like standardizing professional licensing across provinces, only signing trade deals if they benefit Canada, and ending wedge issue politics in CPC that he claims only benefit the Liberals.

[MAINEiac4434]

Met Deepak Obhrai today! There were about 10-15 people at the event, and he said unironically "Wow this is a big crowd for me!" I got the impression that he definitely knows his campaign is more than a longshot, but I was especially impressed at how personable, down to earth, and well versed he was. Brought up some interesting issues too, like standardizing professional licensing across provinces, only signing trade deals if they benefit Canada, and ending wedge issue politics in CPC that he claims only benefit the Liberals.

Sounds like exactly the kind of leader the Tories need.

[DC Al Fine]

Deltell endorses O'Toole.

[136or142]

Deltell endorses O'Toole.

Is this due to the increasing realization that Andrew Scheer can't actually hold a conversation in French?

I think I've written here that if this were 'normal' times Erin O'Toole would win the leadership because he's the closest to ticking all the boxes.  However, despite that, he clearly doesn't seem to have caught on among Conservative Party members.

Boxes he ticks:
1.Can converse in both official languages.

2.Holds a seat in Parliament unlike Chris Alexander.

3.Is consistent unlike Alexander who can be either a Dr Jeckyl or a Mister Hyde.

4.Isn't a dogmatic ideologue unlike Maxime Bernier who would potentially alienate millions of Canadians with his hard line style (I personally agree with a lot of Bernier's economic views, but he is also too dogmatic for me.)

5.Doesn't really have a strong ideology or even all that many policy views, but, with what he does say, he comes across as a pleasant version of Stephen Harper.

6.Has cabinet experience, but wasn't either an M.P or a cabinet minister long enough that he could be tainted by his association with the Stephen Harper government in 2019.

Condolences to Andrew Scheer on the passing of his mother.

[Poirot]

Radio-Canada is reporting on Quebec farmers becoming party members to save supply management in reaction to Bernier's policy. Scheer and Blaney have attended dairy farmers meetings.

Seems to be in the regions of Quebec City, Chaudière-Applaches, Estrie, and Montérégie. Estimation from various camps is over 2.000 farmers will have joined.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1020973/la-mobilisation-des-agriculteurs-quebecois-coutera-t-elle-la-victoire-a-maxime-bernier

The party has 5,500 members in the province. And from the Montreal Gazette

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm cautious on the influence of people who are not interested in a party who join to vote against someone. Maybe they are very motivated. Something to watch for when analyzing the results by riding. They should vote for someone unexpected, say Trost, so their vote is noticeable and stand out. I had heard the farmers union in Chaudière-Appalaches was trying to campaign against Bernier but it would be more effective if they are spread out in regions with low membership.
   

[136or142]

Radio-Canada is reporting on Quebec farmers becoming party members to save supply management in reaction to Bernier's policy. Scheer and Blaney have attended dairy farmers meetings.

Seems to be in the regions of Quebec City, Chaudière-Applaches, Estrie, and Montérégie. Estimation from various camps is over 2.000 farmers will have joined.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1020973/la-mobilisation-des-agriculteurs-quebecois-coutera-t-elle-la-victoire-a-maxime-bernier

The party has 5,500 members in the province. And from the Montreal Gazette

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm cautious on the influence of people who are not interested in a party who join to vote against someone. Maybe they are very motivated. Something to watch for when analyzing the results by riding. They should vote for someone unexpected, say Trost, so their vote is noticeable and stand out. I had heard the farmers union in Chaudière-Appalaches was trying to campaign against Bernier but it would be more effective if they are spread out in regions with low membership.
  

Shows the length a monopoly cartel will go to to maintain it's privilege.  These dairy farmers are a  dead weight loss.

[RogueBeaver]

Why O'Leary's popular: trash talk, celebrity & bristling at Harper's 2015 leash.

Justin playing the same game his dad played with Mulroney in 1983.

[MaxQue]

Radio-Canada is reporting on Quebec farmers becoming party members to save supply management in reaction to Bernier's policy. Scheer and Blaney have attended dairy farmers meetings.

Seems to be in the regions of Quebec City, Chaudière-Applaches, Estrie, and Montérégie. Estimation from various camps is over 2.000 farmers will have joined.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1020973/la-mobilisation-des-agriculteurs-quebecois-coutera-t-elle-la-victoire-a-maxime-bernier

The party has 5,500 members in the province. And from the Montreal Gazette

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm cautious on the influence of people who are not interested in a party who join to vote against someone. Maybe they are very motivated. Something to watch for when analyzing the results by riding. They should vote for someone unexpected, say Trost, so their vote is noticeable and stand out. I had heard the farmers union in Chaudière-Appalaches was trying to campaign against Bernier but it would be more effective if they are spread out in regions with low membership.
  

Shows the length a monopoly cartel will go to to maintain it's privilege.  These dairy farmers are a  dead weight loss.

Well, they are right. Australia broke that system and now milk is 30 to 50 cents more expensive.

[136or142]

Radio-Canada is reporting on Quebec farmers becoming party members to save supply management in reaction to Bernier's policy. Scheer and Blaney have attended dairy farmers meetings.

Seems to be in the regions of Quebec City, Chaudière-Applaches, Estrie, and Montérégie. Estimation from various camps is over 2.000 farmers will have joined.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1020973/la-mobilisation-des-agriculteurs-quebecois-coutera-t-elle-la-victoire-a-maxime-bernier

The party has 5,500 members in the province. And from the Montreal Gazette

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm cautious on the influence of people who are not interested in a party who join to vote against someone. Maybe they are very motivated. Something to watch for when analyzing the results by riding. They should vote for someone unexpected, say Trost, so their vote is noticeable and stand out. I had heard the farmers union in Chaudière-Appalaches was trying to campaign against Bernier but it would be more effective if they are spread out in regions with low membership.
  

Shows the length a monopoly cartel will go to to maintain it's privilege.  These dairy farmers are a  dead weight loss.

Well, they are right. Australia broke that system and now milk is 30 to 50 cents more expensive.

Since deregulation in 2000, milk prices in Australia have risen considerably less than the increase in the CPI up to May of 2015.  


http://www.farminstitute.org.au/ag-forum/australian-consumers-facing-increasing-food-prices

[RogueBeaver]

Guess who's screaming about ESTABLISHMENT FRAUD IS RIGGING THE SYSTEM on Twitter?

[DC Al Fine]

Guess who's screaming about ESTABLISHMENT FRAUD IS RIGGING THE SYSTEM on Twitter?

Ugh. If O'Leary wins, my only hope to not spoil my ballot is the CHP running a candidate.

[RogueBeaver]

LMAO.

[MAINEiac4434]

LMAO.

Is this how elections are going to be run now? Everyone claiming voter fraud?

[RogueBeaver]

Fake mass memberships found & purged.

[DC Al Fine]

LMAO.

Fake mass memberships found & purged.

I guess we ought to eat some crow

[Poirot]

There have always been suspicious tactics in leadership races. Membership from dead people, homeless people, paying for people. Seems requiring payment isn't fulll proof with prepaid credit cards.   

Deltell endorses O'Toole.

Is this due to the increasing realization that Andrew Scheer can't actually hold a conversation in French?

I think I've written here that if this were 'normal' times Erin O'Toole would win the leadership because he's the closest to ticking all the boxes.  However, despite that, he clearly doesn't seem to have caught on among Conservative Party members.

From what I have read Scheer could be just above O'Toole at being more at ease in French. I don't think language was a factor.

Deltell cited O'Toole military past has a big advantage in his eyes. (maybe Deltell values this because his father was in the French military).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

O'Toole would also tick the box of being from the eastern part of Canada.

[2952-0-0]

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/kevin-oleary-campaign-organizer-accused-of-vote-buying/article34345188/

CPC leadership race becomes a dumpster fire.