Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Poirot]

Mainstreet last weekly tracker poll had Scheer taking second place in front of Bernier on first preference. The pollster also said O'Leary gained on first preference but was losing seconds.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/04/26/cpc-poll-oleary-still-leading-scheer-up-bernier-falls-behind/

[mgop]

so most popular candidate droping out? smart move for party...

[MAINEiac4434]

so most popular candidate droping out? smart move for party...

Most popular =/= best candidate to lead the party back into government.

[DC Al Fine]

YUGE & guarantees Bernier is our next leader.

Are you sure about that? O'Leary underperformed and I imagine his supporters will have a crappy turnout rate now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do Conservatives just blindly follow the endorsements of candidates who drop out? I don't think we can assume Bernier will win. His style of libertarianism may be toxic with many in the party.

[136or142]

so most popular candidate droping out? smart move for party...

The closest parallel I'm aware of is in the 1995 NDP leadership race when Svend Robinson dropped out after leading on the first ballot.

Same reason as well, a lack of secondary support.

[Poirot]

The last Quebec MP able to endorse went to O'Toole.

Abacus poll asking if people would vote for Trudeau or various Conservative candidates.
http://abacusdata.ca/was-kevin-oleary-the-conservative-partys-best-hope-to-beat-trudeau-data-suggests-he-wasnt/

There is not a big difference between the seven leadership candidates. They are all in the 30s with 4% separating the first to the last. Chong scored best at 37%, followed by Scheer and O'Leary. Bernier scored the lowest.

There is also a measure on attracting voters who did not vote CPC in 2015 and losing 2015 CPC voters. O'Leary is (was) the person attracting the most non-CPC voter but he lost even more of the 2015 CPC voter. Bernier wins and loses the same number. Scheer does the best win a net gain, losing the least of the 2015 CPC voter. 

[DC Al Fine]

The last Quebec MP able to endorse went to O'Toole.

Abacus poll asking if people would vote for Trudeau or various Conservative candidates.
http://abacusdata.ca/was-kevin-oleary-the-conservative-partys-best-hope-to-beat-trudeau-data-suggests-he-wasnt/

There is not a big difference between the seven leadership candidates. They are all in the 30s with 4% separating the first to the last. Chong scored best at 37%, followed by Scheer and O'Leary. Bernier scored the lowest.

There is also a measure on attracting voters who did not vote CPC in 2015 and losing 2015 CPC voters. O'Leary is (was) the person attracting the most non-CPC voter but he lost even more of the 2015 CPC voter. Bernier wins and loses the same number. Scheer does the best win a net gain, losing the least of the 2015 CPC voter. 

I don't know why people keep thinking fiscally conservative but socially liberal is the way to go for conservative parties. The segment of people who would vote for the Tories but for the socons/populist element is pretty limited.

[BaldEagle1991]

Sadly Canada's next PM is likely Kellie Leitch. 

[adma]

Sadly Canada's next PM is likely Kellie Leitch. 

You'd have been better off saying that a couple of months ago.  From what I can tell, she's settling into single-digitty "just another one of the rest" status...

[MAINEiac4434]

Sadly Canada's next PM is likely Kellie Leitch. 

Lol no

[Hatman 🍁]

Sadly Canada's next PM is likely Kellie Leitch. 

LOL

Hot take alert! Hot take alert!

[DC Al Fine]

Got my ballot today. I know who my top 3-4 are and I know who my bottom picks are, but I have no idea what I'm doing with the middle of my ballot. Thoughts?

[Vosem]

Got my ballot today. I know who my top 3-4 are and I know who my bottom picks are, but I have no idea what I'm doing with the middle of my ballot. Thoughts?

Are you putting the social conservative options (like Trost or Lemieux) first, or are you going with electability (so presumably Raitt or Chong)? I'd ask you to put Bernier high, but he really doesn't seem like your style of conservative...

[DC Al Fine]

Got my ballot today. I know who my top 3-4 are and I know who my bottom picks are, but I have no idea what I'm doing with the middle of my ballot. Thoughts?

Are you putting the social conservative options (like Trost or Lemieux) first, or are you going with electability (so presumably Raitt or Chong)? I'd ask you to put Bernier high, but he really doesn't seem like your style of conservative...

Fringe socons, then Scheer is my electable socon. After that I don't know. I want some sort of mix between liking personality, policies, and their electability.

My ballot currently looks like

1) Lemieux
2) Trost
3) Scheer
4-10)

Ballot cutoff
O'Leary
Leitch
Blaney
Peterson

[MAINEiac4434]

I wonder how many votes O'Leary will still get.

[Poirot]

Members have started voting and I've been waiting for some electability poll.
The Friends of supply management has one. Probably a little biased. It was done by Angus Reid forum, 824 people in Quebec. Don't have the wording of the question. Margin error 3.4%
With Bernier leader, Lib 44%, NDP 21%, Bloc 17%, CPC 11%, Green 4% 

[MAINEiac4434]

Members have started voting and I've been waiting for some electability poll.
The Friends of supply management has one. Probably a little biased. It was done by Angus Reid forum, 824 people in Quebec. Don't have the wording of the question. Margin error 3.4%
With Bernier leader, Lib 44%, NDP 21%, Bloc 17%, CPC 11%, Green 4% 

Jesus.

[Hatman 🍁]

Got my ballot today. I know who my top 3-4 are and I know who my bottom picks are, but I have no idea what I'm doing with the middle of my ballot. Thoughts?

Are you putting the social conservative options (like Trost or Lemieux) first, or are you going with electability (so presumably Raitt or Chong)? I'd ask you to put Bernier high, but he really doesn't seem like your style of conservative...

Fringe socons, then Scheer is my electable socon. After that I don't know. I want some sort of mix between liking personality, policies, and their electability.

My ballot currently looks like

1) Lemieux
2) Trost
3) Scheer
4-10)

Ballot cutoff
O'Leary
Leitch
Blaney
Peterson

Lemieux? why put him above Trost? Personally, the man makes my skin crawl. I used to intern for an MP that was in the same committee as him, and he did not leave a good impression on me. Though, I can't imagine Trost being much better.

[Boston Bread]

This is the first post-O'Leary poll I found: http://globalnews.ca/news/3417232/maxime-bernier-in-a-commanding-lead-in-first-blush-of-post-oleary-polls/

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This is from an internal, but Mainstreet suggested that they have similar results.

[Maxwell]

How high would Bernier have to be in round 1 to be winning in the final round? he's a pretty controversial candidate so I suspect 2nd prefs would go away from him, while Scheer seems pretty anti-controversial beyond sounding like he just got out of high school.

[Boston Bread]

How high would Bernier have to be in round 1 to be winning in the final round? he's a pretty controversial candidate so I suspect 2nd prefs would go away from him, while Scheer seems pretty anti-controversial beyond sounding like he just got out of high school.

I don't think Bernier has been controversial among the conservative base. He would definitely win with that result in the poll.

[Poirot]

That article on the poll says Bernier is in the top preferences of the other candidates.

Fundraising numbers from the first quarter of 2017. Bernier and O'Leary with over $1 million. Then Leitch $ 536 K.

There is a graph with total fundraising. Bernier over $ 2 million. Leitch $1.3 million, Scheer and Chong about 725 K.
 
http://ipolitics.ca/2017/05/01/bernier-out-fundraised-oleary-raitt-raised-less-than-lemieux/

[Poirot]

Even though the leader is elected by points from riding results it is interesting to have the number of members by province.

Ontario: 114,508
Alberta: 59,448
B.C.: 34,686
Quebec: 16,412
Saskatchewan: 12,966
Manitoba: 9,243   
Nova Scotia: 4,692
New Brunswick: 3,674
P.E.I.: 1,188
N.L.: 1,194
Yukon: 645     
N.W.T.: 302
Nunavut: 52       

Total: 259,010

[DC Al Fine]

Just finished filling out my ballot. Not bothering with full details, but:

1) Lemieux
2) Trost
3) Scheer
4) O'Toole

Off ballot:
O'Leary
Blaney
Leitch
Peterson