Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[DC Al Fine]

This is as exciting as Canadian politics will ever get.

Here's a typical boring Canadian election where everyone votes the same as the previous election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993

I love that. Smallest swing for a major party was Liberal +9.32%

[Barnes]

Final Ballot
Scheer: 50.95%
Bernier: 49.05%

[Barnes]

A difference of 644.4 points in the end.

[DC Al Fine]

Any idea what O'Leary's best riding was?

[RogueBeaver]

Closest convention result since '76, coincidentally also 51/49 where West edged QC.

[MAINEiac4434]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

[Barnes]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

Grits are very pleased. Scheer has regularly been described as a "nicer Stephen Harper."

[MAINEiac4434]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

Grits are very pleased. Scheer has regularly been described as a "nicer Stephen Harper."

So. I guess the only way for a Tory government is if the NDP cuts into the Liberals in marginals.

[Boston Bread]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

The Libs and NDP certainly aren't worried, since Scheer is the status quo for the CPC.

[Hatman 🍁]

Map of the first round. Errors possible. Where there was a tie, I went down the ballot chain until the tie was broken.

[Boston Bread]

Seems like Trost relied more on immigrants than rural voters, similar to Patrick Brown in Ontario. It explains Waterloo better than my earlier Mennonite hypothesis.

[Hatman 🍁]

Seems like Trost relied more on immigrants than rural voters, similar to Patrick Brown in Ontario. It explains Waterloo better than my earlier Mennonite hypothesis.

He cleaned up in ridings with a lot of Chinese people, specifically. Hilariously could not win his own riding.

[MAINEiac4434]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

The Libs and NDP certainly aren't worried, since Scheer is the status quo for the CPC.

Looks like the CPC isn't ready to evolve.

[Maxwell]

Hilariously, O'Leary still beat Rick Peterson AND Deepak Obhrai, and almost beat Chris Alexander.

[Poirot]

That was a lot more exciting than I thought. I want my money back from pollster and forecast who made me believe Bernier had a big lead. Maybe some underestimation of social conservative vote and anti-Bernier rural Quebec vote.

Scheer won Beauce

Scheer 51.11%
Bernier 48.89%

[Boston Bread]

Any reason why Leitch won Surrey?

[Hatman 🍁]

Any reason why Leitch won Surrey?

Very bizarre. The areas she won have a high South Asian population, fwiw.

[Jeppe]

Weren't Hindus supporting Trump of his anti-Muslim policies in 2016 a thing? Might've been a similar dynamic up here in Canada.

[Vosem]

Not at all upset. I liked Bernier, and would've voted for him, but that was mainly for ideological reasons, and I was never quite sold on how electable Bernier might be. Scheer seems like a uniter, a competent and likable fellow, and broadly electable if things go south for the Liberals.

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

Grits are very pleased. Scheer has regularly been described as a "nicer Stephen Harper."

Harper did win 3 of 5 elections contested, which is a decent record. I think a nicer, more consensual Harperism could be the way forward for the CPC, at least for the immediate future.

[Boston Bread]

Weren't Hindus supporting Trump of his anti-Muslim policies in 2016 a thing? Might've been a similar dynamic up here in Canada.

The reason it's weird is that Leitch had none of Trump's white working class or rural support. It was just her home district and Surrey, afaik.

Although tbh I wouldn't be surprised if a right wing populist campaign in Canada does better among immigrants than WASPs.

[King of Kensington]

Hilariously could not win his own riding.

I don't know if it's hilarious or depressing that Trost represents a riding with that includes "University" in the name.

[Poirot]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

Grits are very pleased. Scheer has regularly been described as a "nicer Stephen Harper."

Yes Scheer is more status quo and not a personal threat but Liberals would have been pleased with Bernier if he was going to continue with his promises of privatizing and abolishing institutions, changes to health care funding, "former separatist". Bernier managed to mobilize people in his own region to block him. I imagine the Liberals could show mobilize voters against Bernier's big changes and the shrinking of the state.  

[Boston Bread]

I think Bernier is probably less electable, but I wouldn't have wanted him to win because he'd be able to do far more damage if he was in power.

[Barnes]

These are things Liberals are saying to journalists, of course.

They are certainly much more comfortable in the short run with Scheer because they've been down this road before. Bernier would have certainly necessitated a revamped strategy, but as others have pointed out, many of his proposals would have hung around him like an Albatros.

Conventional elections can have a habit of going astray, though, so it should be a fun ride. 

[Barnes]

The next question becomes, of course, what does the new Shadow Cabinet look like, and just how indebted does Scheer feel to Trost and O'Toole?