Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[King of Kensington]

Trudeau is probably the second happiest person in Canada tonight. 

[VPH]

Seems like Trost relied more on immigrants than rural voters, similar to Patrick Brown in Ontario. It explains Waterloo better than my earlier Mennonite hypothesis.

He cleaned up in ridings with a lot of Chinese people, specifically. Hilariously could not win his own riding.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/karen-lin/conservative-leadership-chinese-communities_b_16335086.html
Looks like Trost had targeted those communities during his campaign.

[MAINEiac4434]

Trudeau is probably the second happiest person in Canada tonight. 

I think his happiness will be short-lived if the NDP elects Singh in October.

[Hatman 🍁]

Weren't Hindus supporting Trump of his anti-Muslim policies in 2016 a thing? Might've been a similar dynamic up here in Canada.

The reason it's weird is that Leitch had none of Trump's white working class or rural support. It was just her home district and Surrey, afaik.

Although tbh I wouldn't be surprised if a right wing populist campaign in Canada does better among immigrants than WASPs.

That's how Rob Ford won.

[2952-0-0]

Trudeau is probably the second happiest person in Canada tonight. 

I think his happiness will be short-lived if the NDP elects Singh in October.

We're seeing in the US, UK, and France, that left-wing populism is taking hold among millennial voters. If the Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable, it will be to the NDP under a charismatic leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

Seems like Trost relied more on immigrants than rural voters, similar to Patrick Brown in Ontario. It explains Waterloo better than my earlier Mennonite hypothesis.

He cleaned up in ridings with a lot of Chinese people, specifically. Hilariously could not win his own riding.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/karen-lin/conservative-leadership-chinese-communities_b_16335086.html
Looks like Trost had targeted those communities during his campaign.

Interesting read. The results speak for themselves. I bet Leitch also did some campaigning in Surrey and Chong in urban centres. Speaking of which, Chong did well in the more bobo dowtown ridings in Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal (and even Hamilton), which I find very interesting, if not unsurprising.

[Poirot]

I guess this explains the Trost score in Brossard- Saint-Lambert. Multiethnic with a big chinese community. Before being eliminated Trost was first with 44% to Bernier 30%. Final round result: Bernier 57%   

[King of Kensington]

I guess this explains the Trost score in Brossard- Saint-Lambert. Multiethnic with a big chinese community. Before being eliminated Trost was first with 44% to Bernier 30%. Final round result: Bernier 57%   

I wonder how many votes were actually cast in that riding.

[King of Kensington]

We're seeing in the US, UK, and France, that left-wing populism is taking hold among millennial voters. If the Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable, it will be to the NDP under a charismatic leader.

Singh seems to be more of an Obama-type liberal than a left-wing firebrand though. 

[2952-0-0]

We're seeing in the US, UK, and France, that left-wing populism is taking hold among millennial voters. If the Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable, it will be to the NDP under a charismatic leader.

Singh seems to be more of an Obama-type liberal than a left-wing firebrand though. 

He certainly has a different tone than Mulcair, who tried too hard to Blair-ize the party.

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess this explains the Trost score in Brossard- Saint-Lambert. Multiethnic with a big chinese community. Before being eliminated Trost was first with 44% to Bernier 30%. Final round result: Bernier 57%   

I wonder how many votes were actually cast in that riding.

You can tell that in some ridings very few votes were cast. Like in Nunavut, it was obvious that only 16 people (or maybe 32) voted. The results were Bernier 50%; Scheer 18.75%; Chong 12.5%; Leitch, O'Toole and Raitt all at 6.25%.

[trebor204]

I guess this explains the Trost score in Brossard- Saint-Lambert. Multiethnic with a big chinese community. Before being eliminated Trost was first with 44% to Bernier 30%. Final round result: Bernier 57%   

I wonder how many votes were actually cast in that riding.

Some math might be able to figure it out:

Chris Alexander got 0.62% of  the vote, for each ballot cast for Chris there has to be a multiple of 162 votes.
1 / 162 = 0.617%
2 / 324 = 0.617%
3 / 486 = 0.617%

If you take 162 votes and multiply by % for each candidate, the results are very close to whole numbers.
The answer is some multiple of 162.

[pikachu]

Weren't Hindus supporting Trump of his anti-Muslim policies in 2016 a thing? Might've been a similar dynamic up here in Canada.

Not to hijack a thread which has had some interesting discussion, but Hindus supporting Trump was not a thing.

More on the point, is there a significant Indian Conservative population in Canada? From what I understand, he Tories do well with Chinese people, but my impression was also that Punjabis/Sikhs in BC were primarily NDP voters and that Toronto Indians were mainly Liberals.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

Grits are very pleased. Scheer has regularly been described as a "nicer Stephen Harper."

Well, they shouldn't be. Harper won three consecutive federal elections and would have won a fourth if he had smiled a bit more.

[MaxQue]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

Grits are very pleased. Scheer has regularly been described as a "nicer Stephen Harper."

Well, they shouldn't be. Harper won three consecutive federal elections and would have won a fourth if he had smiled a bit more.

Two of them being minorities, which are not considered as important (because you win, but you need support by other parties to do anything).

[EnglishPete]

☩ Faith J Goldy  🇨🇦‏Verified account @FaithGoldy  8h8 hours ago
More
 "I cannot let @JustinTrudeau do to my 5 children what his father did to my generation." -@andrewscheer #cpcldr

https://twitter.com/FaithGoldy/status/868625513606152193

I'm confused. what did Fidel Castro do to Andrew Scheer's generation?

[adma]

Harper did win 3 of 5 elections contested, which is a decent record. I think a nicer, more consensual Harperism could be the way forward for the CPC, at least for the immediate future.

Sounds like Rona Ambrose.

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau is probably the second happiest person in Canada tonight. 

People keep saying that, but it's not like Bernier's economic program is supported by an overwhelming majority of Canadians. The Liberals would have no problem reverting to early 2000's form and run "he's going to cut your healthcare" attack ads during the campaign.

[DL]

I don't think that the Liberals viewed ANY of the Tory leadership candidates as being particularly formidable but the Liberals were probably looking forward to running against Bernier who also used to be a Quebec separatist and who spoke English so badly that many voters would have had a hard time understanding let alone feeling connected to him.

Scheer on the other hand is just boring and boring is harder to negatively define

[DC Al Fine]

I don't think that the Liberals viewed ANY of the Tory leadership candidates as being particularly formidable but the Liberals were probably looking forward to running against Bernier who also used to be a Quebec separatist and who spoke English so badly that many voters would have had a hard time understanding let alone feeling connected to him.

Scheer on the other hand is just boring and boring is harder to negatively define

Agreed. Plus Bernier would have run into the same problem all "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" candidates face. That is, he would upset major parts of the Tory coalition (e.g. Chinese Canadians, white ethnics, Evangelicals) who aren't on board with the libertarian project, while failing to bring in enough swing voters to offset this. Given that "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" are far more likely to exist on the opinion page of the Globe and Mail than in key 905 swing ridings, Berneir would be at a disadvantage.

With Scheer, you basically start with the Harper 2015 coalition and can go up and down from there. A much safer choice IMO.

[Hatman 🍁]

Someone asked what riding O'Leary did the best in? It was Repentigny (5.3%). I would be surprised if that represented very many votes though.

[Krago]

I guess this explains the Trost score in Brossard- Saint-Lambert. Multiethnic with a big chinese community. Before being eliminated Trost was first with 44% to Bernier 30%. Final round result: Bernier 57%   

I wonder how many votes were actually cast in that riding.

Some math might be able to figure it out:

Chris Alexander got 0.62% of  the vote, for each ballot cast for Chris there has to be a multiple of 162 votes.
1 / 162 = 0.617%
2 / 324 = 0.617%
3 / 486 = 0.617%

If you take 162 votes and multiply by % for each candidate, the results are very close to whole numbers.
The answer is some multiple of 162.

I'm trying to do just that, for all ridings in Canada.

The good news is that my formula seems to work well for all ballots from 1 to 12.  The issue with Ballot 13 is that with just two candidates, giving the results to just two decimal places produces several options.

Using Banff-Airdrie as an example, I have calculated that the number of votes cast on each ballot were;

Ballot 1 - 1,115
Ballot 2 - 1,114
Ballot 3 - 1,114
Ballot 4 - 1,112
Ballot 5 - 1,107
Ballot 6 - 1,107
Ballot 7 - 1,107
Ballot 8 - 1,106
Ballot 9 - 1,104
Ballot 10 - 1,095
Ballot 11 - 1,073
Ballot 12 - 1,062

Since Erin O'Toole got 211 votes on the 12th ballot, that means the votes cast on the final ballot in that riding would have to be between 851 and 1,062.  So how many possibilities are there where Bernier would get 61.07% and Scheer 38.93%?  21.

Bernier 524, Scheer 334
Bernier 527, Scheer 336
Bernier 535, Scheer 341
Bernier 538, Scheer 343
Bernier 546, Scheer 348
Bernier 549, Scheer 350
Bernier 557, Scheer 355
Bernier 560, Scheer 357
Bernier 571, Scheer 364
Bernier 582, Scheer 371
Bernier 593, Scheer 378
Bernier 596, Scheer 380
Bernier 604, Scheer 385
Bernier 607, Scheer 387
Bernier 615, Scheer 392
Bernier 618, Scheer 394
Bernier 626, Scheer 399
Bernier 629, Scheer 401
Bernier 637, Scheer 406
Bernier 640, Scheer 408
Bernier 648, Scheer 413


Based on the average dropoff for the three previous ballots, the most likely results for Banff-Airdrie were Bernier 640, Scheer 408.  But it could easily be any of the final six options.  My horse for a third decimal point!


BTW, does anyone have an Excel file with all the results?  It would save me hours trying to download all that sh**t.

[Krago]

Someone asked what riding O'Leary did the best in? It was Repentigny (5.3%). I would be surprised if that represented very many votes though.

For ballots 1-11, the votes cast in Repentigny were a multiple of 19 (19,38,57).  For ballot 12, it was a multiple of 17 (17,34,51). On the last ballot, Bernier and Scheer were tied.

So my best guess is that O'Leary got one vote out of 19, and that there were 16 votes on the final ballot.  But only Dominion Voting, Dustin Van Vugt and Vladimir Putin know for sure.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final round map

[King of Kensington]

People keep saying that, but it's not like Bernier's economic program is supported by an overwhelming majority of Canadians. The Liberals would have no problem reverting to early 2000's form and run "he's going to cut your healthcare" attack ads during the campaign.

I don't disagree.  The Libs would have been happy with Bernier as well.  This was not a formidable group of candidates IMO.

And you're right the number of actual libertarians is very small, and isn't the same as those who describe themselves with the generic "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" label.