Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017
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  Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017
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Poll
Question: Will some candidates drop out of the race in order to stop O'Leary from winning?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Maybe
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 18

Author Topic: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017  (Read 101580 times)
Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #850 on: May 28, 2017, 12:38:15 PM »

Is there a reason why Scheer did so well in Quebec?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #851 on: May 28, 2017, 12:46:05 PM »

Is there a reason why Scheer did so well in Quebec?

Bernier wanted to kill a bunch of subsidies for farmers and farmers are a large portion of the Tory base in Quebec.
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Barnes
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« Reply #852 on: May 28, 2017, 12:57:34 PM »
« Edited: May 28, 2017, 02:57:03 PM by Barnes »

Is there a reason why Scheer did so well in Quebec?

Bernier wanted to kill a bunch of subsidies for farmers and farmers are a large portion of the Tory base in Quebec.

This and an attack on equalization payments was the great dividing line between the two.

Bernier really needed to sweep Quebec in the first ballot to hold off against preference flows to the other candidates. Home field advantage can only go so far, and if you're seen as being opposed to the livelihood of rural Tory ridings, then not far enough.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #853 on: May 28, 2017, 02:08:33 PM »

So it looks like the Mennonite/Dutch Canadian religious right was behind Scheer for the most part while Trost had more Chinese Christian support?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #854 on: May 28, 2017, 02:42:18 PM »

So it looks like the Mennonite/Dutch Canadian religious right was behind Scheer for the most part while Trost had more Chinese Christian support?

Sort of. From what I can tell, heavily Dutch or Mennonite ridings backed Scheer, but Pierre Lemieux (and to a lesser extent Brad Trost) also overperformed in those areas. e.g. Lemieux got over 20% in Provencher.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #855 on: May 28, 2017, 03:06:24 PM »

So Scheer's the Dutch candidate? Wow, thank you Canada!
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mvd10
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« Reply #856 on: May 28, 2017, 03:15:11 PM »

So Scheer's the Dutch candidate? Wow, thank you Canada!

I loved Bernier, but the Dutch candidate winning is even better Wink. Same reason I back all those far-right Christian Dutchmen in the Midwest. They should return home tbh, would make Dutch politics so much better.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #857 on: May 28, 2017, 03:24:06 PM »

So Scheer's the Dutch candidate? Wow, thank you Canada!

I loved Bernier, but the Dutch candidate winning is even better Wink. Same reason I back all those far-right Christian Dutchmen in the Midwest. They should return home tbh, would make Dutch politics so much better.
Yeah! And the Afrikaners too.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #858 on: May 28, 2017, 03:29:13 PM »

I just wanna know the general consensus: is Scheer a good choice for the party (and by that i mean could he lead conservatives to victory in 2019)?
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Njall
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« Reply #859 on: May 28, 2017, 04:21:32 PM »

I just wanna know the general consensus: is Scheer a good choice for the party (and by that i mean could he lead conservatives to victory in 2019)?

I could see it being possible for him to lead them to victory, but I think that a hypothetical CPC victory in 2019 with Scheer at the helm would be more likely to happen due to Trudeau making missteps during the campaign than anything Scheer would bring to the table.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #860 on: May 28, 2017, 04:25:33 PM »

So Scheer's the Dutch candidate? Wow, thank you Canada!

Actually, Michael Chong was the "Dutch" candidate. That is, he is half Dutch, half Chinese.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #861 on: May 28, 2017, 06:05:00 PM »

I just wanna know the general consensus: is Scheer a good choice for the party (and by that i mean could he lead conservatives to victory in 2019)?
Only if the NDP severely cut into Liberal margins, splitting the left-of-center vote.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #862 on: May 28, 2017, 06:10:39 PM »
« Edited: May 28, 2017, 06:13:05 PM by King of Kensington »

So it looks like the Mennonite/Dutch Canadian religious right was behind Scheer for the most part while Trost had more Chinese Christian support?

Sort of. From what I can tell, heavily Dutch or Mennonite ridings backed Scheer, but Pierre Lemieux (and to a lesser extent Brad Trost) also overperformed in those areas. e.g. Lemieux got over 20% in Provencher.

Yes and Lemieux took 19% in the heavily Dutch Canadian "Bible belt" of Niagara West, a riding that in the end went to Scheer by a 2-1 margin.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #863 on: May 28, 2017, 06:27:12 PM »

I just wanna know the general consensus: is Scheer a good choice for the party (and by that i mean could he lead conservatives to victory in 2019)?

He's the conservative choice, no pun intended. As others have noted, the field was lacklustre and the Liberals weren't terrified of any candidates. That said, he's a safe pair of hands, who won't cause schisms  or lose  tons of votes/seats. Bernier was much more high risk/high reward.
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trebor204
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« Reply #864 on: May 28, 2017, 09:39:23 PM »


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I hope the link works

https://www.dropbox.com/s/28zaiha4b2iqmnx/Consv_Leadership_2017.xlsx?dl=0
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adma
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« Reply #865 on: May 28, 2017, 09:57:04 PM »

e.g. Lemieux got over 20% in Provencher.

Metis Conservatives?
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #866 on: May 28, 2017, 10:31:34 PM »

I just wanna know the general consensus: is Scheer a good choice for the party (and by that i mean could he lead conservatives to victory in 2019)?

Scheer will make a great Prime Minister.

He has what it takes.
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Poirot
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« Reply #867 on: May 28, 2017, 11:00:16 PM »

MP Bernard Généreux, president of Quebec caucus had said he would not endorse Bernier because of supply management policy and would stay neutral. Now he says his vote went to Raitt, she was his first preference.

Steven Blaney is satisfied for the survival of the agricultural model. He was not first in his riding and sees an intelligent strategic vote to block Bernier. Saw a polarization at the end. The group in support of supply management instruction was to vote for Scheer. Blaney's second preference vote went to Leitch.

Many are blaming the farmers or farmers union for Bernier's loss. MP Jacques Gourde, Bernier's campaign co-chairman estimates the supply management issue cost Bernier 30% of the member's vote in the province for a loss of 2500 points in Quebec and about 2000 in Ontario. That issue made the difference. It became a referendum on supply management he said.

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http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201705/27/01-5102012-direction-du-parti-conservateur-bernier-coule-par-la-gestion-de-loffre.php

Former mayor of Bernier's hometown blames Quebecers and strong farmer's union lobby.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201705/28/01-5102092-defaite-de-bernier-la-faute-aux-quebecois-et-a-lupa.php
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Smid
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« Reply #868 on: May 29, 2017, 01:46:15 AM »

I guess this explains the Trost score in Brossard- Saint-Lambert. Multiethnic with a big chinese community. Before being eliminated Trost was first with 44% to Bernier 30%. Final round result: Bernier 57%   

I wonder how many votes were actually cast in that riding.


Some math might be able to figure it out:

Chris Alexander got 0.62% of  the vote, for each ballot cast for Chris there has to be a multiple of 162 votes.
1 / 162 = 0.617%
2 / 324 = 0.617%
3 / 486 = 0.617%

If you take 162 votes and multiply by % for each candidate, the results are very close to whole numbers.
The answer is some multiple of 162.



I'm trying to do just that, for all ridings in Canada.

The good news is that my formula seems to work well for all ballots from 1 to 12.  The issue with Ballot 13 is that with just two candidates, giving the results to just two decimal places produces several options.

Using Banff-Airdrie as an example, I have calculated that the number of votes cast on each ballot were;

Ballot 1 - 1,115
Ballot 2 - 1,114
Ballot 3 - 1,114
Ballot 4 - 1,112
Ballot 5 - 1,107
Ballot 6 - 1,107
Ballot 7 - 1,107
Ballot 8 - 1,106
Ballot 9 - 1,104
Ballot 10 - 1,095
Ballot 11 - 1,073
Ballot 12 - 1,062

Since Erin O'Toole got 211 votes on the 12th ballot, that means the votes cast on the final ballot in that riding would have to be between 851 and 1,062.  So how many possibilities are there where Bernier would get 61.07% and Scheer 38.93%?  21.

Bernier 524, Scheer 334
Bernier 527, Scheer 336
Bernier 535, Scheer 341
Bernier 538, Scheer 343
Bernier 546, Scheer 348
Bernier 549, Scheer 350
Bernier 557, Scheer 355
Bernier 560, Scheer 357
Bernier 571, Scheer 364
Bernier 582, Scheer 371
Bernier 593, Scheer 378
Bernier 596, Scheer 380
Bernier 604, Scheer 385
Bernier 607, Scheer 387
Bernier 615, Scheer 392
Bernier 618, Scheer 394
Bernier 626, Scheer 399
Bernier 629, Scheer 401
Bernier 637, Scheer 406
Bernier 640, Scheer 408
Bernier 648, Scheer 413


Based on the average dropoff for the three previous ballots, the most likely results for Banff-Airdrie were Bernier 640, Scheer 408.  But it could easily be any of the final six options.  My horse for a third decimal point!


BTW, does anyone have an Excel file with all the results?  It would save me hours trying to download all that sh**t.

Good work on the maths there! As for an Excel version, the percentages have been uploaded to Kaggle in CSV format.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #869 on: May 29, 2017, 07:15:59 AM »


Mennonites.
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Krago
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« Reply #870 on: May 29, 2017, 10:59:37 AM »

Thanks to everyone for sending me the percentages by riding, candidate and ballot.

I've completed my spreadsheet that allows you to determine actual ballot totals for a specific riding based on the vote shares.  If anyone would like a copy, please PM me.

If anyone wants to try to calculate the raw numbers for every seat, God Bless You. 
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trebor204
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« Reply #871 on: May 29, 2017, 11:09:51 AM »

Here's is a copy of the results in Excel Format.


https://www.dropbox.com/s/28zaiha4b2iqmnx/Consv_Leadership_2017.xlsx?dl=0
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VPH
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« Reply #872 on: May 29, 2017, 11:33:12 AM »

Does anybody see much of a class divide in the first round results? Like Raitt did well in the economically depressed areas near her hometown, Chong did well in well-off urban ridings?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #873 on: May 29, 2017, 12:08:43 PM »

Does anybody see much of a class divide in the first round results? Like Raitt did well in the economically depressed areas near her hometown, Chong did well in well-off urban ridings?

A quick look at my map suggests Bernier did better in wealthier ridings than Scheer.
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Krago
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« Reply #874 on: May 29, 2017, 01:02:35 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2017, 03:30:12 PM by Krago »

Here are the raw vote totals from the first round of voting:

Maxime BERNIER
38,232
Andrew SCHEER
30,403
Erin O'TOOLE
16,898
Brad TROST
12,775
Michael CHONG
11,807
Pierre LEMIEUX
11,319
Kellie LEITCH
9,000
Lisa RAITT
4,739
Kevin O'LEARY
1,694
Chris ALEXANDER
1,442
Steven BLANEY
926
Rick PETERSON
877
Andrew SAXTON
675
Deepak OBHRAI
575
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