Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Krago]

Votes cast for leader as a percentage of Conservative votes in the 2015 election, the top five are:

Ottawa Centre - 9.9%
University–Rosedale - 8.3%
Toronto–Danforth - 7.6%
Toronto Centre - 7.5%
Halifax - 7.3%


37 of the bottom 38 ridings are in Quebec (plus Nunavut).

[Hatman 🍁]

Votes cast for leader as a percentage of Conservative votes in the 2015 election, the top five are:

Ottawa Centre - 9.9%
University–Rosedale - 8.3%
Toronto–Danforth - 7.6%
Toronto Centre - 7.5%
Halifax - 7.3%

Chong won all five of those ridings. Lots of cross over support for him.

[Njall]

Grenier has some high-level raw vote numbers.

Essentially, the article says that out of the 141,362 votes cast in the leadership, the 13th and final round went as follows:

Scheer: 62,593 (44.3%)
Bernier: 55,544 (39.3%)
Inactive ballots: 23,225 (16.4%)

[Poirot]

How is this estimate of votes per riding accurate. Should I trust this.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pDnsG7p45gqNHUvswmjJmMVtgIxmVSoxprLWd9kMV-w/edit#gid=0

[MaxQue]

How is this estimate of votes per riding accurate. Should I trust this.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pDnsG7p45gqNHUvswmjJmMVtgIxmVSoxprLWd9kMV-w/edit#gid=0

If it sums to the good total of cast votes, you should. Number for my riding seems right, from the voting numbers.

[Poirot]

From a CPAC webpage. Scheer's 10 worst riding results (in points) were in Quebec and 7 of his 10 best results were in Quebec.
http://www.cpac.ca/en/conservative-leadership-results/

Scheer won the most points in 175 ridings, while Bernier won 158.

Five ridings were an exact 50-50 tie: Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke, B.C., Newmarket–Aurora, Ont., Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou, Que., Montarville, Que., and Repentigny, Que.


SUPPORT FOR SCHEER

Scheer’s top 10 ridings in the final round:

Regina–Qu’Appelle, SK   89.54
Richmond–Arthabaska, QC   89.06
Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques, QC   87.65
Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC   85.90
Lac-Saint-Jean, QC   82.17
Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup, QC   82.13
Chilliwack–Hope, BC   81.64
Shefford, QC   81.25
Egmont, PEI   81.00
Mégantic–L’Érable, QC   80.37
 

Scheer’s bottom 10 results:

Manicouagan, QC   12.12
Beauport–Limoilou, QC   13.40
Bourassa, QC   14.29
Thérèse-De Blainville, QC   15.09
Alfred-Pellan, QC   15.79
Gatineau, QC   16.26
Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC   16.46
Honoré-Mercier, QC   17.65
Longueuil–Saint-Hubert, QC   20.00
Terrebonne, QC   20.00

[King of Kensington]

Looking at ridings where Baptist + Pentecostal + "other Christian" is at least 20%.  Starting with Ontario:

Kitchener-Conestoga (26.6%)

Trost/Lemieux  23.02%
Scheer (final ballot)  63.49%

Elgin-Middlesex-London (24.5%)

Trost/Lemieux  22.18%
Scheer (final ballot)  63.62%

Chatham-Kent-Leamington (24.4%)

Trost/Lemieux  22.76%
Scheer (final ballot)  55.99%

Niagara West (24%)

Trost/Lemieux  30.54%
Scheer (final ballot)  66.5%

Haldimand-Norfolk (22.7%)

Trost/Lemieux  26.29%
Scheer (final ballot)  59.95%

[cp]

Well, this makes things more interesting ...

Bernier camp casts doubt on Conservative leadership vote

[trebor204]

The Conservative Party has more detail (up to 5 decimal points, instead of 2) results on their website.

http://www.conservative.ca/leadership/en
 
From there I was to calculate the actual vote total for the 1st round of balloting. My vote totals matches the 141,362 votes announced during the leadership convention, the vote total also matches the raw vote total from Krago's earlier post.

First Round Ballot Totals:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/8qf8kur09ityhfu/LeadershipResults_2017.xlsx?dl=0

[King of Kensington]

Great work Krago!

So the most votes were in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner and the fewest in Nunvaut.

Chong's appeal to crossover small-l liberals is pretty obvious too given the high number of votes cast in ridings like Ottawa Centre, University-Rosedale, Parkdale-High Park etc.

[Hatman 🍁]

1082 votes in Ottawa Centre? Wowza. Makes sense I guess, a lot of partisans who work for MPs, etc.

[cp]

The plot thickens ...

[Lincoln Republican]

http://conservative.ca/leadership/en/results

Here is an excellent link from the Conservative Party of Canada for the leadership voting.

You can check the national vote, each province, each constituency, each ballot.

[Hatman 🍁]

http://conservative.ca/leadership/en/results

Here is an excellent link from the Conservative Party of Canada for the leadership voting.

You can check the national vote, each province, each constituency, each ballot.

Gee, thanks. This exact link was posted the day of their election.

[Lincoln Republican]

http://conservative.ca/leadership/en/results

Here is an excellent link from the Conservative Party of Canada for the leadership voting.

You can check the national vote, each province, each constituency, each ballot.

Gee, thanks. This exact link was posted the day of their election.

Well S O R R Y!