Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Boston Bread]

The CPC fell back in too many BC ridings for me to think the Chinese vote didn't swing from the Conservatives. They gained in 2 Chinese heavy ridings in Ontario. But they fell back everywhere in BC. Even the Tory island of Richmond Centre saw a 14 point decrease for the CPC.

[Boston Bread]

I'd say Bernier is in a much better position than Trost and Chong.

[Boston Bread]

Re: Trost. Even with his name listed in our poll, he still received less than 1% (worse than Ambrose who wasn't even listed).

No one knows who he is...

He'll gain eventually if no other socon runs. Patrick Brown started at 3% because nobody knew him, but gained quickly because no other socon ran.

[Boston Bread]

If the Liberals were ruthless, they would shamelessly plagiarize some of Bernier's ideas like opening up more service sectors to foreign ownership and competition, and scaling back some supply management sectors.

The Liberals seem to be too cautious with respect to how they use their (massive) political capital to attempt anything like this, for better or worse.

[Boston Bread]

This is the first post-O'Leary poll I found: http://globalnews.ca/news/3417232/maxime-bernier-in-a-commanding-lead-in-first-blush-of-post-oleary-polls/

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This is from an internal, but Mainstreet suggested that they have similar results.

[Boston Bread]

How high would Bernier have to be in round 1 to be winning in the final round? he's a pretty controversial candidate so I suspect 2nd prefs would go away from him, while Scheer seems pretty anti-controversial beyond sounding like he just got out of high school.

I don't think Bernier has been controversial among the conservative base. He would definitely win with that result in the poll.

[Boston Bread]

I'm surprised that Trost won my riding. Chong came second as well. The CPC members here are odd ones I guess.

[Boston Bread]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

The Libs and NDP certainly aren't worried, since Scheer is the status quo for the CPC.

[Boston Bread]

Seems like Trost relied more on immigrants than rural voters, similar to Patrick Brown in Ontario. It explains Waterloo better than my earlier Mennonite hypothesis.

[Boston Bread]

Any reason why Leitch won Surrey?

[Boston Bread]

Weren't Hindus supporting Trump of his anti-Muslim policies in 2016 a thing? Might've been a similar dynamic up here in Canada.

The reason it's weird is that Leitch had none of Trump's white working class or rural support. It was just her home district and Surrey, afaik.

Although tbh I wouldn't be surprised if a right wing populist campaign in Canada does better among immigrants than WASPs.

[Boston Bread]

I think Bernier is probably less electable, but I wouldn't have wanted him to win because he'd be able to do far more damage if he was in power.