Smid
Junior Chimp
Posts: 6,151
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« on: May 29, 2017, 01:46:15 AM » |
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I guess this explains the Trost score in Brossard- Saint-Lambert. Multiethnic with a big chinese community. Before being eliminated Trost was first with 44% to Bernier 30%. Final round result: Bernier 57%
I wonder how many votes were actually cast in that riding.
Some math might be able to figure it out:
Chris Alexander got 0.62% of the vote, for each ballot cast for Chris there has to be a multiple of 162 votes. 1 / 162 = 0.617% 2 / 324 = 0.617% 3 / 486 = 0.617%
If you take 162 votes and multiply by % for each candidate, the results are very close to whole numbers. The answer is some multiple of 162.
I'm trying to do just that, for all ridings in Canada.
The good news is that my formula seems to work well for all ballots from 1 to 12. The issue with Ballot 13 is that with just two candidates, giving the results to just two decimal places produces several options.
Using Banff-Airdrie as an example, I have calculated that the number of votes cast on each ballot were;
Ballot 1 - 1,115 Ballot 2 - 1,114 Ballot 3 - 1,114 Ballot 4 - 1,112 Ballot 5 - 1,107 Ballot 6 - 1,107 Ballot 7 - 1,107 Ballot 8 - 1,106 Ballot 9 - 1,104 Ballot 10 - 1,095 Ballot 11 - 1,073 Ballot 12 - 1,062
Since Erin O'Toole got 211 votes on the 12th ballot, that means the votes cast on the final ballot in that riding would have to be between 851 and 1,062. So how many possibilities are there where Bernier would get 61.07% and Scheer 38.93%? 21.
Bernier 524, Scheer 334 Bernier 527, Scheer 336 Bernier 535, Scheer 341 Bernier 538, Scheer 343 Bernier 546, Scheer 348 Bernier 549, Scheer 350 Bernier 557, Scheer 355 Bernier 560, Scheer 357 Bernier 571, Scheer 364 Bernier 582, Scheer 371 Bernier 593, Scheer 378 Bernier 596, Scheer 380 Bernier 604, Scheer 385 Bernier 607, Scheer 387 Bernier 615, Scheer 392 Bernier 618, Scheer 394 Bernier 626, Scheer 399 Bernier 629, Scheer 401 Bernier 637, Scheer 406 Bernier 640, Scheer 408 Bernier 648, Scheer 413
Based on the average dropoff for the three previous ballots, the most likely results for Banff-Airdrie were Bernier 640, Scheer 408. But it could easily be any of the final six options. My horse for a third decimal point!
BTW, does anyone have an Excel file with all the results? It would save me hours trying to download all that sh**t.
Good work on the maths there! As for an Excel version, the percentages have been uploaded to Kaggle in CSV format.
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