Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[MaxQue]

Well, redistricting changed a few ridings.

Kenney now represents Calgary Midnapore, Ambrose represents Sturgeon River-Parkland, Rempel represents Calgary Nose Hill and Poilievre is representing Carleton (no more Nepean)

[MaxQue]

Mennonites, maybe?

Yeah, they're kind of an "ethnic group" (even have several recognizable last names like Epp and Thiessen).  Probably go around 60% Conservative, I would guess (but it's a stab in the dark because I don't know).  I know in the Prairies they've historically been very anti-CCF/NDP.

If we're talking about ethno-religious subgroups - I think Orthodox Jews is the obvious answer.

But apparently the ultra orthodox Jewish community in Outremont votes massively for Tom Mulcair!

They are a wierd bunch, though. They think it's a sacrilege than Israel was founded before God came back on Earth or something like that.

[MaxQue]

Moore isn't running. Rest is usual stuff from usual suspects - hoped for better from Ibbitson. Like say, interviewing a single Blue MP.

Since when they are allowed to talk to journalists?

[MaxQue]

Considering that the Liberal Party of Canada stands for the grand total of fyck all (other than that Canada = and that the Liberal Party should be in charge of it) exactly which one of its thirty thousand tendencies she was associated with is way less relevant than that she was associated with the party.

Note than she WAS associated with Liberals.

Considering she has opposed pretty much every policy of Trudeau since he won (from the right), I'm not sure they are interested in her.

[MaxQue]

Trost considering a run.

I don't know much about him other than that he's in the socon wing of the party. Any idea whether he's running for a future cabinet spot or to be the socon candidate?

Tory convention drops party's opposition to SSM, all leadership hopefuls vote for the plank.

*Sigh* Fait accompli I guess

Well, Conservative Party, despite all its faillings, know Canada isn't a theocracy and that religious values shouldn't be used for lawmakings, unlike those fossils at the CHP and extremists like Trost.

Trost said he couldn't support any candidate voting for it, but they all did, so he has to run himself, persuaded the whole majority of the party agrees with him. Pure hubris. He'll get a trashing and if by some miracle he wins, I fully expect him to be out after next election, as Conservatives will lose half their seats with someone like him as leader.

[MaxQue]

He is widely considered as a village idiot here.

The saga a decade ago where he lost confidential Cabinet documents while dating someone with links to organised crime did him no good, too.

Beauce reelects him in a landslide each time and rest of Quebec is "Oh no, but that's expected, it's backwards Beauce". To Quebec people, Beauce is like the Deep South.

[MaxQue]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.

[MaxQue]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.

Is he? He just got reelected in his Beauce riding with nearly 60% of the vote, and the latest poll of Conservative supporters had him at 10% nationally and I presume most of that came from Quebecers.

He may be 'laughing stock' among non Conservatives in Quebec, but he seems to be very well liked by Quebec conservatives.

You're wrong. He's not popular at all outside the Beauce. His economic proposals interest me but I have zero interest in putting anywhere near first preference.

Then how do you explain the poll that had him at 10% nationally?

People only knowing his repute as a free-marketer and people saying "oh, that's a French name, we'll win Quebec in a landslide with him".

[MaxQue]

The most amazing thing of all is that the Conservatives could have continued to make a big fuss over the PMO expense claims for the next few weeks and ended Trudeau's honeymoon. Instead, it barely made one news cycle before they chose to race-bait. Well, not really race-bait, but it seems awfully much like it.

"Anti-Canadian Values screening!" "She was born in Iran not Afghanistan!" If this sets the tone for the leadership race, then the CPC's survival as a national force is in doubt. After electoral reform is introduced (assuming it's a form of PR), and after their second thrashing in 2019, what holds it together?

The only reason why I wouldn't be breaking out the popcorn, is that one of these splinter parties is likely to be a European-style far-right party. And so far, Canada is one of very few western countries without such parties.

They? I'm pretty sure it's Leitch only, to the annoyance of Rona Ambrose and most leadership candidates.

[MaxQue]

No translators. If the Conservative leader isn't able to debate in French, he shouldn't be invited to French debates.

[MaxQue]

I was sorta joking about the translator thing, but it was done in 1993, maybe '97 for Manning. To me a bilingual leader is non-negotiable. That's partially why after this debate I decided to switch to Scheer.

Wasn't really an issue because Reform had almost no candidate east of the Ontario. Most of them only got Alliance candidates in 2000.

[MaxQue]

Having watched the Halifax debate on YouTube...I think, if I had a vote in this election, I would definitely cast my first-preference vote for Obhrai

His main issue is French. At the Quebec City debate, he read a declaration in "French" (it sounded more like some sounds vaguely sounding French and was incomprehensible).

[MaxQue]

Radio-Canada is reporting on Quebec farmers becoming party members to save supply management in reaction to Bernier's policy. Scheer and Blaney have attended dairy farmers meetings.

Seems to be in the regions of Quebec City, Chaudière-Applaches, Estrie, and Montérégie. Estimation from various camps is over 2.000 farmers will have joined.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1020973/la-mobilisation-des-agriculteurs-quebecois-coutera-t-elle-la-victoire-a-maxime-bernier

The party has 5,500 members in the province. And from the Montreal Gazette

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I'm cautious on the influence of people who are not interested in a party who join to vote against someone. Maybe they are very motivated. Something to watch for when analyzing the results by riding. They should vote for someone unexpected, say Trost, so their vote is noticeable and stand out. I had heard the farmers union in Chaudière-Appalaches was trying to campaign against Bernier but it would be more effective if they are spread out in regions with low membership.
  

Shows the length a monopoly cartel will go to to maintain it's privilege.  These dairy farmers are a  dead weight loss.

Well, they are right. Australia broke that system and now milk is 30 to 50 cents more expensive.

[MaxQue]

I don't think I will win the prediction game!

O'Leary 41
Bernier 32.5
Scheer 26.5

O'Leary 51
Bernier 49

The membership in Beauce went from 102 to 1519. With 16,412 members in Quebec that means Beauce riding counts for 9.25% of all members in the province.

Irrelevent, remember every riding counts for 100 points, no matter if they have 5 or 5000 members.

[MaxQue]

In funny result, Beauce is 48-47 Bernier-Scheer

[MaxQue]

Trost won Brossard--St-Lambert

[MaxQue]

Chong won Laurier--Ste-Marie (old Duceppe riding).

Outremont, too.

[MaxQue]

Chong-Bernier tie in Rosemont--La-Petite-Patrie.

[MaxQue]

My riding is very bland, Bernier, Blaney, Lemieux. I think they want someone French.
The riding next to mine is wierd, Scheer gets 73%. Farming areas. In Quebec, he does wonderfully in farming areas, Bernier in non-farming ones.

[MaxQue]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

Grits are very pleased. Scheer has regularly been described as a "nicer Stephen Harper."

Well, they shouldn't be. Harper won three consecutive federal elections and would have won a fourth if he had smiled a bit more.

Two of them being minorities, which are not considered as important (because you win, but you need support by other parties to do anything).

[MaxQue]

How is this estimate of votes per riding accurate. Should I trust this.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pDnsG7p45gqNHUvswmjJmMVtgIxmVSoxprLWd9kMV-w/edit#gid=0

If it sums to the good total of cast votes, you should. Number for my riding seems right, from the voting numbers.