Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Barnes]

Yeah, van Loan is certainly not a moderate choice.

[Barnes]

Kevin O'Leary has withdrawn from the leadership contest and will support Bernier.

[Barnes]

YUGE & guarantees Bernier is our next leader.

Yep. O'Leary's endorsement is simply because Bernier is the front runner and a Quebecker.

[Barnes]

The poll for this thread is really very amusing in retrospect.

This has been quite an interesting and entertaining race for many reasons, and I've enjoyed following the commentary in this thread, although I didn't contribute much myself--something I must rectify shortly.

[Barnes]

Bernier in first with 28.89% to Scheer's 21.82%.

[Barnes]

As was pretty clear, going to be a race between Bernier and Scheer.

[Barnes]

Quite a bit weaker position for Bernier on the first ballot than some had predicted. He probably needed over a third on the first to run away with the result.

Obviously, he's in the lead of course.

[Barnes]

Leitch's campaign was expecting to finish second or third. Lol.

[Barnes]

By the way, Bernier had set a personal goal of 30%. This is close, but I believe they felt the second position would be much more diluted.

[Barnes]

Onto the seventh ballot and Bernier has a 7.5 point lead over Scheer. Still no majority.

[Barnes]

Seventh Ballot:
Bernier: 30.51%
Scheer: 22.97%

[Barnes]

Tenth Ballot:
Bernier: 34.23%
Scheer: 28.28%
O'Toole: 14.62%
Trost: 13.71%
Chong: 9.14%

[Barnes]

Eleventh Ballot:
Bernier: 36.57%
Scheer: 30.28%
O'Toole: 18.85%
Trost: 14.30%

[Barnes]

Twelfth Ballot
Bernier: 40.38%
Scheer: 38.36%
O'Toole: 21.26%

[Barnes]

Five minutes to the final ballot. I always thought this would end up an exciting race!

[Barnes]

Judging from their facial expressions & pundits on Twitter, Scheer's won.

I agree just based on the likely flow from O'Toole. I'd touch wood if I was a Conservative though.

[Barnes]

Final Ballot
Scheer: 50.95%
Bernier: 49.05%

[Barnes]

A difference of 644.4 points in the end.

[Barnes]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

Grits are very pleased. Scheer has regularly been described as a "nicer Stephen Harper."

[Barnes]

These are things Liberals are saying to journalists, of course.

They are certainly much more comfortable in the short run with Scheer because they've been down this road before. Bernier would have certainly necessitated a revamped strategy, but as others have pointed out, many of his proposals would have hung around him like an Albatros.

Conventional elections can have a habit of going astray, though, so it should be a fun ride. 

[Barnes]

The next question becomes, of course, what does the new Shadow Cabinet look like, and just how indebted does Scheer feel to Trost and O'Toole?

[Barnes]

Is there a reason why Scheer did so well in Quebec?

Bernier wanted to kill a bunch of subsidies for farmers and farmers are a large portion of the Tory base in Quebec.

This and an attack on equalization payments was the great dividing line between the two.

Bernier really needed to sweep Quebec in the first ballot to hold off against preference flows to the other candidates. Home field advantage can only go so far, and if you're seen as being opposed to the livelihood of rural Tory ridings, then not far enough.