Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[DL]

But wouldn't MacKay be constantly asked why he quit this year? I can see him calculating that the Conservatives would likely lose in 2015, and barring any serious reason to the contrary, lose again in 2019, clearing the way for a campaign for the next election. He did say he hopes to come back when people want a more PC-style government. And, he's young enough to afford to wait a decade or more.

If he somehow gets it this time, I can already see the Liberal attacks calling him a coward who runs from fights.

Ernie Eves resigned his seat at Queens Park in 2001 and then still came back a year later to get the PC leadership in 2002 and let's not forget Stephen Harper's own story - he was first elected to parliament in 1993 and then before he even finished his first term he resigned his seat in a huff and did not run in 1997 and spent the next couple of years plotting his comeback and ran against Stockwell Day

[DL]

I wonder what the most Conservative ethnic group in Canada is.  My guess is Dutch Canadians (but good luck measuring the "Dutch vote"). 

I'm not so sure about that...Peter Stoffer is a Dutch-Canadian! Of course a lot depends on what wave of immigration we are talking about. There are likely some very conservative Dutch reformed church types who came right after WW2 and then more recent immigrants who are more post-modern...and of  course Dutch-Canadians probably assimilate very quickly and end up voting very much like native born Canadians. Its like how Ukrainians who immigrated pre WW1 were often communists, those who came post WW2 were often very rightwing...I seem to remember reading somewhere that the most NDP voting immigrant group were Irish-Canadians!

[DL]

Mennonites, maybe?

There are different types of Mennonites. A friend of mine is a Mennonite who is from a very liberal sect that are all pacifists and more like Quakers and they are all social gospel types 

[DL]

Mennonites, maybe?

Yeah, they're kind of an "ethnic group" (even have several recognizable last names like Epp and Thiessen).  Probably go around 60% Conservative, I would guess (but it's a stab in the dark because I don't know).  I know in the Prairies they've historically been very anti-CCF/NDP.

If we're talking about ethno-religious subgroups - I think Orthodox Jews is the obvious answer.

But apparently the ultra orthodox Jewish community in Outremont votes massively for Tom Mulcair!

[DL]

I'm told anecdotally that Peggy Nash did very well with Poles in Parkdale-High Park...but who knows?

[DL]

These sorts of polls of the general public on party leadership contests are pretty worthless and are just a measure of name recognition. Remember Forum's poll of Ontarians after McGuinty quit that said that Gerard Kennedy was far and away the leading candidate for the Ontario Liberal leadership? (he ended up a distant third). Or what about their poll way back when that showed that Christine Elliott was far and away the leader in the race to be Ontario PC leader...she was crushed by Patrick Brown - who the initial polls said was at about 1% among the general public.

[DL]

Well, obviously campaigns matter. Though name recognition means more in federal leadership races. There's a reason why Brian Topp didn't become NDP leader.

That's not the reason Topp didn't win the federal NDP leadership race. By the end of the campaign I would say that among card-carrying NDP members (ie: the only people who get to vote), Topp was as well known as anyone else. Also, while Mulcair was well known in Quebec - which in 2012 had lots of MPs and very few actual NDP members - in the rest of Canada I'm not sure how well-known Mulcair was. People knew who Topp was - they just didn't think he was "ready for primetime" to be leader of the opposition not having any frontline political experience at all.

When Jack Layton first decided to run for the federal NDP leadership in 2002 - he was almost a total unknown to NDP members compared to stalwarts like Blaikie and Nystrom. and going back to 1989 - who do you think had higher name recognition? Former BC Premier Dave Barrett or two-year Yukon backbench MP Audrey McLaughlin? As noted previously - who the hell had ever heard of Patrick Brown six months before he won the Ontario PC leadership on the first ballot??? And dare i remind people of Joe Clark winning the PC leadership in 1976 (Joe who?)

If McKay runs, I'm sure he will make a credible showing, but i don't see him as a winner. He might have a regional powerbase in Atlantic Canada - but that is only 9% of the vote. A lot of people probably project qualities onto him because he was the last leader of the PC party before it merged with Reform and he never even got to lead the PCs though a single election. But the fact is, he never distinguished himself in any cabinet portfolio he held and was widely viewed as a bit of "dumb jock". I have not heard him speak French, but I doubt if its any good.

[DL]

There are some key differences between. Trudeau was made leader in a "Hail Mary" gesture (that worked) by a party on its last legs - and he didn't really have any serious competition for the job. Trudeau also had no record (for better or worse). McKay would be running to lead a party that is not facing extinction and where there are other movers and shakers that will want the job. MacKay also isnt a "fresh face" he was first elected 1997 and was in cabinet for 10 years (where he never distinguished himself at all) and is seen as very much a representative of one wing of the party...and the weaker one at that.

IMHO, if McKay ran, he would be like Gerard Kennedy running for the OLP leadership in 2013 - start out with high name recognition and not much else - and quickly eclipsed by other more exciting candidates who don't have as much baggage.

I'm still not convinced Kenney will run at all...he would have to deal with too many awkward questions about his personal life and I'm not sure the CPC sees the road back to power as being led by an 'intensely private bachelor" who claims to be a 49 year old virgin and who is an active member of Opus Dei. His image as being able to attract immigrants to the CPC also took a bad hit when the Tories lost literally every single seat they had in immigrant rich areas in this election.

I do think the CPC leadership contest promises to be extremely dirty and divisive and i shall enjoy eating popcorn watching from the sidelines!

[DL]

The issue isnt the media "prying" its the overall narrative.

CPC members would have to deal with Kenney's overall "weirdness" - I mean seriously, you expect Canadians to elect as PM someone in their 50s who claims to be a virgin and who is a member of weird rightwing Catholic sect whose members wear underwear containing thorns to cut into your thigh as a constant reminder of Christ's suffering on the cross???

[DL]

Canadians have to become aware of that in the first place.

If Kenney ran for the CPC leadership you can be sure that the media will write about his weird public statements about being a virgin and his ties to Opus Dei. The Liberals will also make sure no one is ignorant of those facts either. I hope the CPC does pick Kenney as their next leader as I think he would be totally unelectable in a general election.

[DL]

No vote for at least 18 months.

Maybe holding out hope that Brad Wall will enter once the Saskatchewan election is done with?

Forget it - Wall speaks no French - GONG!!!

[DL]

I would see Brad Wall as the canadian version of Scott Walker

[DL]

There is also a regional dimension in canada that you don't see so much in the US. Brad Wall is very much a Reform party style "western chauvinist" who has created a profile for himself bashing eastern Canada and Ottawa - In the US - apart from neo-confederates who are into states rights  - you don't see that west vs. east dynamic

[DL]

Being leader of a major political party in Canada requires totally FLUENCY in English AND French - taking a few Berlitz courses and knowing how to order dinner in a restaurant will not cut it for Wall.

[DL]

There have been stories about Wall taking French lessons for years, this is nothing new...no one ever seems to have actually heard him utter a single word in French so Perhaps the lessons aren't going very well.

[DL]

It's quite amusing, a whole puff piece in Caroline Mulroney that doesn't say a single solitary word about what her views are on anything. Let's just remind ourselves that the next CPC leader will be elected by rank and file CPC members...and who are they? Largely evangelical Christians, redneck gun nuts and a lot of grumpy old men who with no post secondary education. The idea that they would want a leader who is jet setting glamour girl married to the son of the editor of an ultra liberal magazine who likely has very small l liberal views on social issues...is absurd. Everything about her screams elite, elite, elite...and on top of that while Pierre Trudeau is fondly remembered as having been a great PM (people forget how hated he was most of the tie he was in office), Mulroney is a different story. He is widely viewed as one of Canada's worst PMs and as having been a crook to boot. In fact the whole raisin d etre of the Reform Party was that so many conservatives grew to personally hate Brian Mulroney.

My main reaction to that column by Christina blizzard is "isn't it a bit early for April fools day jokes"?

[DL]

In a year end interview with the Regina Leader Post, brad wall goes even further in denying any federal ambitions. He says has NOT been taking any French lessons and remains unilingual. So GONG

[DL]

My friends in Saskatchewan say that Wall will serve two years of his third terms and then quit to make millions of dollars serving on corporate boards. He will be to the Tories was Frank McKenna was to the Liberals.

[DL]

The only "ism" Christy Clark believes in is NARCISSISM!

[DL]

Canada has had just a few experiences with business tycoons in politics. Ironically, right now its most prevalent in Quebec where both PKP and Legault are big business tycoons - and both doing quite badly politically.

The only real political success story of a multimillionaire coming out of no where in Canada would be Danny Williams (aka "Danny Millions") in Newfoundland.

[DL]

I've also thought Deltell could be a strong contender. Why do you doubt it?

I could see two major reasons why Deltell would NOT be a strong contender. Number 1, he has virtually no experience in national politics. he has spent his entire life reporting and being a part of Quebec provincial politics. He also has no ties or connection in the rest of Canada. Number 2, the only possible way i could see him as a contender would be if Maxime Bernier suddenly dropped dead, in which case Deltell could run as a sort of Quebec favourite son/kingmaker - but as long as Bernier is running there is really no room for Deltell in the race

[DL]

Its not at all clear to me what exactly this "split" between the forces behind Peter Mckay and the old Harper crowd would be over. As has been pointed out - back when the Reform Party was created in the late 80s there were clearly major issues that divided Reformers from mainstream PCs under Mulroney such as the Meech Lake/Charlottetown accords, the GST, bilingualism, immigration, abortion rights etc... none of those issues exist anymore. Seriously apart from the fact that McKay's roots are in the old PC party - I can't think of a single solitary substantive issue where he and Jason Kenney would disagree. McKay had a number of senior cabinet portfolios and he always seemed 100% in lockstep with what Harper wanted and we never even heard any rumours that he disagreed with anything.

There are clearly some old Reform party dinosaurs from Alberta who just don't like the idea of being anyone from Atlantic Canada who was ever in the PC party...but beyond that this seems like the "narcissism of small difference"

[DL]

Ivson even mentioned Stephen Harper returning to leadership!! The anonymous insiders say he's the only candidate who would run away with the leadership and keep the party united.

I'm not so sure about that - a lot of Conservatives thought Harper was a big liability by the end of the campaign and privately seethed at his cold nasty personality and his hyper-partisan negative tactics.

[DL]

Keep in mind that the liberals would only have to lose about 1% nationwide in 2019 and their majority is gone

[DL]

Chong is about as red as a Tory gets these days.

Which is why he has exactly ZERO chance of winning