Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

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How well would a more pro-free market and Francophone leader do in Canada (especially Quebec)? My natural inclination in this race is to support Bernier but I wonder how much sense that makes from an electoral standpoint.

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I get the sense that I would really love Maxime Bernier if I were Canadian, but I don't know that he's the best candidate to stop O'Leary or face off against Trudeau in a general election. O'Leary sounds friggin' terrible.

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Having watched the Halifax debate on YouTube...I think, if I had a vote in this election, I would definitely cast my first-preference vote for Obhrai

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Having watched the Halifax debate on YouTube...I think, if I had a vote in this election, I would definitely cast my first-preference vote for Obhrai

His main issue is French. At the Quebec City debate, he read a declaration in "French" (it sounded more like some sounds vaguely sounding French and was incomprehensible).

Very unfortunate, that. He seems really personable and likable, with an interesting life story and stances that are acceptable to every wing of the party

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I'm starting to warm to the idea of O'Leary -- he seems like a much more serious and electable option than Trump, and indeed even the comparison between them looks rather superficial (mostly centered around both of them being "celebrity businessmen"). There are still much better choices in this race, and indeed my first-serious-preference would probably be for Bernier (first-actual-preference being for Flawless Beautiful Deepak ), but I wouldn't be particularly upset about an O'Leary victory (with his lack of French proficiency seeming like his biggest impediment). Leitch, Blaney, and Lemieux seem like the worst options in this race, with Leitch being the worst that has an actual shot at victory.

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Raitt is a moderate Conservative; that's fine, and moderate Conservatives are necessary to have in the coalition if we want to have a party that can govern Canada, and they need to feel welcome. Raitt wouldn't be at the top of my preferences, but she wouldn't be at the bottom, either, and I wouldn't be particularly disappointed if Raitt won. By contrast, from what I've seen in the debates, Chong seems like a CINO who holds down a very safe Conservative seat (which came within 3 points of reelecting a PC incumbent in 1993!), and while there may be a spot for him on the fringe of the party, he definitely shouldn't become leader. I'd still rank him ahead of the cuckoo birds like Leitch/Blaney/Lemieux, but still.

A few could be switched around, but I'm solidifying something like this as my list (in a race where I can't vote )

1)   Deepak Obhrai
2)   Rick Peterson
3)   Maxime Bernier
4)   Erin O’Toole
5)   Andrew Saxton
6)   Andrew Scheer
7)   Lisa Raitt
8 )   Chris Alexander
9)   Kevin O’Leary
10)   Michael Chong
11)   Steven Blaney
12)   Pierre Lemieux
13)   Brad Trost
14)   Kellie Leitch

EDIT: fixed formatting

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Got my ballot today. I know who my top 3-4 are and I know who my bottom picks are, but I have no idea what I'm doing with the middle of my ballot. Thoughts?

Are you putting the social conservative options (like Trost or Lemieux) first, or are you going with electability (so presumably Raitt or Chong)? I'd ask you to put Bernier high, but he really doesn't seem like your style of conservative...

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1st Ballot:
Deepak Obhrai 0.41%
Andrew Saxton 0.50%
Rick Peterson 0.65%
Kevin O'Leary 1.07%
Chris Alexander 1.12%
Steven Blaney 1.26%
Lisa Raitt 3.34%
Kellie Leitch 7.00%
Pierre Lemieux 7.38%
Michael Chong 7.55%
Brad Trost 8.35%
Erin O'Toole 10.65%
Andrew Scheer 21.82%
Maxime Bernier 28.89%

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Lots and lots of fun riding (and province) breakdowns on the Conservative Party of Canada webpage, but a particularly fascinating one I just encountered:
Beauce: Bernier 47.5, Scheer 46.6, Blaney 4.5, all others <1%.

Would be deeply amusing if Bernier wins over the objection of his own riding, especially since he seemed to be so popular there. Just by comparison:

Regina--Qu'Appelle: Scheer 82.0, Bernier 8.2, all others %.

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Sweet Beautiful Deepak only came in third in his own riding of Calgary--Forest Lawn (Saxton also only third in North Vancouver). Leitch won her own home base:

Simcoe--Grey: Leitch 33.5, Bernier 19.8, Scheer 11.3, O'Toole 11.2, Lemieux 6.5, Chong 5.7, all others <5%.

Some other home ridings:

Saskatoon--University (Trost): Scheer 31.0, Trost 25.1, Bernier 19.9, Lemieux 8.2, O'Toole 5.6, all others <5%.
Bellechasse... (Blaney): Scheer 49.4, Blaney 36.5, Bernier 11.2, all others <2%
Glengarry (Lemieux until 2015 defeat): Lemieux 38.7, Bernier 20.0, Scheer 19.5, O'Toole 10.5, all others <5%
Wellington--Halton Hills (Chong): Chong 58.0, Bernier 12.4, Scheer 6.7, Lemieux 6.3, O'Toole 5.2, all others <5%

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O'Toole seems to have inexplicably carried Yukon

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This is as exciting as Canadian politics will ever get.

What about the BC election just a few weeks ago, closest ever in the provincial popular vote? I'm American (Atlas poster American, but still American), and I think Canadian politics is hella exciting

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Not at all upset. I liked Bernier, and would've voted for him, but that was mainly for ideological reasons, and I was never quite sold on how electable Bernier might be. Scheer seems like a uniter, a competent and likable fellow, and broadly electable if things go south for the Liberals.

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

Grits are very pleased. Scheer has regularly been described as a "nicer Stephen Harper."

Harper did win 3 of 5 elections contested, which is a decent record. I think a nicer, more consensual Harperism could be the way forward for the CPC, at least for the immediate future.