Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[MAINEiac4434]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

[MAINEiac4434]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!

It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

[MAINEiac4434]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!

It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

I miss the days when it was rare for anyone on this forum to actually support the Liberals. It's too bad that American progressives are only exposed to Trudeau's good side.

Honestly, Trudeau seems like a pretty good fit for a lot of Atlas' centre left.

Maybe it's just kids these days. It's been a long time since the Liberals were in power, but people my age remember how disappointing they were.

But anyways, sorry for hijacking the thread.

No it's fine. Honestly if Jack Layton was still around he'd 1) be prime minister and 2) would love that.

[MAINEiac4434]

Met Deepak Obhrai today! There were about 10-15 people at the event, and he said unironically "Wow this is a big crowd for me!" I got the impression that he definitely knows his campaign is more than a longshot, but I was especially impressed at how personable, down to earth, and well versed he was. Brought up some interesting issues too, like standardizing professional licensing across provinces, only signing trade deals if they benefit Canada, and ending wedge issue politics in CPC that he claims only benefit the Liberals.

Sounds like exactly the kind of leader the Tories need.

[MAINEiac4434]

LMAO.

Is this how elections are going to be run now? Everyone claiming voter fraud?

[MAINEiac4434]

so most popular candidate droping out? smart move for party...

Most popular =/= best candidate to lead the party back into government.

[MAINEiac4434]

Sadly Canada's next PM is likely Kellie Leitch. 

Lol no

[MAINEiac4434]

I wonder how many votes O'Leary will still get.

[MAINEiac4434]

Members have started voting and I've been waiting for some electability poll.
The Friends of supply management has one. Probably a little biased. It was done by Angus Reid forum, 824 people in Quebec. Don't have the wording of the question. Margin error 3.4%
With Bernier leader, Lib 44%, NDP 21%, Bloc 17%, CPC 11%, Green 4% 

Jesus.

[MAINEiac4434]

Is the Conservative party going to keep its leader if the result of the next election is again a Liberal majority government ? I'm wondering if the next leader is there at least for the medium term or needs a good result in two years.

Probably depends on what kind of majority government we see. If the new leader makes some progress and shrinks the Liberal majority, I imagine they'll stick around.

Where would we shrink the Liberal majority? We might get some Atlantic seats back but Grits could gain a chunk here in QC, maybe lose a couple in BC. I'd put O/U at 190 right now.

Well there's a decent number of suburban seats (mostly in Toronto, but also dribs and drabs in the rest of the country), but you're right, I forgot about the Liberals likely landslide in Quebec. I think the point still stands though. The NDP and Bloc's electoral situation seems worse than ours given our lack of promiscuous progressive, and their sizeable number of seats won by <10%. If the results are something like:

Lib (+5)
Tory: (+15)
NDP/Bloc: (-20)

That would be enough of a success for the leader to stick around and build upon no?

IMHO, the Tories are a party of government and any election they fail to win must be viewed as a failure, and the party leader must shoulder responsibility for the defeat. Even though that'd be a decent result for the Tories, the Liberals gaining seats would also be seen as a missed opportunity.

As much as a Dion fanboy I am, I still wanted him gone after 2008.

[MAINEiac4434]

Just realized that if Bernier wins, all parties but the Greens will be led by Quebecers: Trudeau from Papineau, Mulcair from Outremont, Bernier from Beauce and the Bloc.

[MAINEiac4434]

Just realized that if Bernier wins, all parties but the Greens will be led by Quebecers: Trudeau from Papineau, Mulcair from Outremont, Bernier from Beauce and the Bloc.

Mulcair wont' be leader in the next election though.

Yeah, and Caron probably won't win the NDP leadership. But has that ever happened before, Quebecers leading every major party?

[MAINEiac4434]

On the 10th ballot, Scheer has taken the lead in Beauce

[MAINEiac4434]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

[MAINEiac4434]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

Grits are very pleased. Scheer has regularly been described as a "nicer Stephen Harper."

So. I guess the only way for a Tory government is if the NDP cuts into the Liberals in marginals.

[MAINEiac4434]

How should Grits and Dippers be feeling tonight?

The Libs and NDP certainly aren't worried, since Scheer is the status quo for the CPC.

Looks like the CPC isn't ready to evolve.

[MAINEiac4434]

Trudeau is probably the second happiest person in Canada tonight. 

I think his happiness will be short-lived if the NDP elects Singh in October.

[MAINEiac4434]

I just wanna know the general consensus: is Scheer a good choice for the party (and by that i mean could he lead conservatives to victory in 2019)?

Only if the NDP severely cut into Liberal margins, splitting the left-of-center vote.