Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Krago]

To remember the names of the 14 Conservative leadership candidates, just use this mnemonic:

STOP ROBBOCALLS

(Damn you, Steven Blaney!)

[Krago]

I guess this explains the Trost score in Brossard- Saint-Lambert. Multiethnic with a big chinese community. Before being eliminated Trost was first with 44% to Bernier 30%. Final round result: Bernier 57%   

I wonder how many votes were actually cast in that riding.

Some math might be able to figure it out:

Chris Alexander got 0.62% of  the vote, for each ballot cast for Chris there has to be a multiple of 162 votes.
1 / 162 = 0.617%
2 / 324 = 0.617%
3 / 486 = 0.617%

If you take 162 votes and multiply by % for each candidate, the results are very close to whole numbers.
The answer is some multiple of 162.

I'm trying to do just that, for all ridings in Canada.

The good news is that my formula seems to work well for all ballots from 1 to 12.  The issue with Ballot 13 is that with just two candidates, giving the results to just two decimal places produces several options.

Using Banff-Airdrie as an example, I have calculated that the number of votes cast on each ballot were;

Ballot 1 - 1,115
Ballot 2 - 1,114
Ballot 3 - 1,114
Ballot 4 - 1,112
Ballot 5 - 1,107
Ballot 6 - 1,107
Ballot 7 - 1,107
Ballot 8 - 1,106
Ballot 9 - 1,104
Ballot 10 - 1,095
Ballot 11 - 1,073
Ballot 12 - 1,062

Since Erin O'Toole got 211 votes on the 12th ballot, that means the votes cast on the final ballot in that riding would have to be between 851 and 1,062.  So how many possibilities are there where Bernier would get 61.07% and Scheer 38.93%?  21.

Bernier 524, Scheer 334
Bernier 527, Scheer 336
Bernier 535, Scheer 341
Bernier 538, Scheer 343
Bernier 546, Scheer 348
Bernier 549, Scheer 350
Bernier 557, Scheer 355
Bernier 560, Scheer 357
Bernier 571, Scheer 364
Bernier 582, Scheer 371
Bernier 593, Scheer 378
Bernier 596, Scheer 380
Bernier 604, Scheer 385
Bernier 607, Scheer 387
Bernier 615, Scheer 392
Bernier 618, Scheer 394
Bernier 626, Scheer 399
Bernier 629, Scheer 401
Bernier 637, Scheer 406
Bernier 640, Scheer 408
Bernier 648, Scheer 413


Based on the average dropoff for the three previous ballots, the most likely results for Banff-Airdrie were Bernier 640, Scheer 408.  But it could easily be any of the final six options.  My horse for a third decimal point!


BTW, does anyone have an Excel file with all the results?  It would save me hours trying to download all that sh**t.

[Krago]

Someone asked what riding O'Leary did the best in? It was Repentigny (5.3%). I would be surprised if that represented very many votes though.

For ballots 1-11, the votes cast in Repentigny were a multiple of 19 (19,38,57).  For ballot 12, it was a multiple of 17 (17,34,51). On the last ballot, Bernier and Scheer were tied.

So my best guess is that O'Leary got one vote out of 19, and that there were 16 votes on the final ballot.  But only Dominion Voting, Dustin Van Vugt and Vladimir Putin know for sure.

[Krago]

Thanks to everyone for sending me the percentages by riding, candidate and ballot.

I've completed my spreadsheet that allows you to determine actual ballot totals for a specific riding based on the vote shares.  If anyone would like a copy, please PM me.

If anyone wants to try to calculate the raw numbers for every seat, God Bless You. 

[Krago]

Here are the raw vote totals from the first round of voting:

Maxime BERNIER	38,232
Andrew SCHEER	30,403
Erin O'TOOLE	16,898
Brad TROST	12,775
Michael CHONG	11,807
Pierre LEMIEUX	11,319
Kellie LEITCH	9,000
Lisa RAITT	4,739
Kevin O'LEARY	1,694
Chris ALEXANDER	1,442
Steven BLANEY	926
Rick PETERSON	877
Andrew SAXTON	675
Deepak OBHRAI	575

[Krago]

Votes cast for leader as a percentage of Conservative votes in the 2015 election, the top five are:

Ottawa Centre - 9.9%
University–Rosedale - 8.3%
Toronto–Danforth - 7.6%
Toronto Centre - 7.5%
Halifax - 7.3%


37 of the bottom 38 ridings are in Quebec (plus Nunavut).