Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Poirot]

Maxime Bernier is open to the legalization of marijuana consumption.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2016/01/17/maxime-bernier-poursuit-sa-reflexion

[Poirot]

In an interview with Le Soleil, Maxime Bernier will probably run.
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201603/10/01-4959605-direction-du-parti-conservateur-maxime-bernier-pret-a-se-lancer.php

He could make an announcement in 2-3 weeks. Gérard Deltell would probably be a leader with more appeal to win in an election in Quebec (but I was disppointed to hear him speak like an oil industry lobbyist).

The Conservative party will use the points system by riding to select their leader so votes in small ridings are important.

The spending limit per candidate is $5 million.

[Poirot]

Deltell has said he is not running for leader.

There was an Abacus poll on the best choice for Conservative leader among eight potential candidates. Mackay and O'Leary are the top two. 

http://abacusdata.ca/cpc-leadership-mackay-leads-oleary-has-some-appeal-but-a-polarizing-impact/

Mackay is the only potential candidate to have a positive effect of people being more inclined to vote Conservative.

[Poirot]

Maxime Bernier has the support of Jacques Gourde, MP for Lévis-Lotbinière.

Reading the Ivison article:

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Does the party establishment really thinks a MacKay win would provoke a split? It must be early Reformers or Harper inner circle types who treat almost everyone as enemy.

[Poirot]

One issue MacKay disagreed with some in the party was moving to one person one vote to select a leader instead of the points system for each riding but that is not something to predict a split over. I'm curious if there were private policy disagreements.

It might be good in the general public for a candidate to express disagreement with Harper policies to show change but probably not in courting party members. 

[Poirot]

Frpm inside the party MacKay deciding not to run might be a disadvantage but an advantage outside the party in creating some distance with the Harper loss. If he had ran and lost his seat, opponents could have said "He can't even hold his seat" and have to run against MPs who were re-elected.

Forum has a poll on who would make the best leader.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/001d342a-73b4-4291-97a7-98fdb819eab5Federal%20Conservative%20Leadership%20News%20Release%20(2016%2004%2006)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Among all voters None of the suggested names option has double the vote for MacKay who slightly leads O'Leary. Among Conservative voters O'Leary is just ahead. Among Conservative party members O'Leary has a lead and Someone else option is second (that group is only 112 respondents though).

I'm surprised Kenney is in single digit in all three categories. 

[Poirot]

Not sure if he is really considering but Bernard Lord is mentioned in a La Presse story and on Radio-Canada.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201605/28/01-4986057-congres-du-parti-conservateur-le-nom-de-bernard-lord-sur-toutes-les-levres.php

It could be party members mainly from Quebec looking for a perfectly bilingual leader who has the potential to make the party more competitive in Quebec/ New Brunswick. I think he said he was not running for leader after the last election.

[Poirot]

Last year, Bernier as Minister of state for Agriculture was trying to reassure farmer they would protect supply management. He didn't even believe was he was saying.

 Steven Blaney (Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis) is thinking of leadership bid.

[Poirot]

The annual Léger poll on people's opinion of a list of politicians in Quebec came out recently and Bernier has high negative opinions.
20% have a good opinion of him, 44% bad opinion, 20% no opinion, 17% don't know him.

So his appeal would probably be limited to traditional target seats for Conservatives, south of Quebec City and Quebec city suburbs.

Deltell is more liked according to the poll. 31% have a good opinion of him, 21% bad, 21% no opinion, 27% don't know him.

[Poirot]

Steven Blaney left his opposition critic role so it seems he is ready to run for leadership.

I've read Lisa Raitt's husband has been diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease. Don't know if that makes you want to spend more time with your loved one than spending all your time in politics, running for party leadership or being party leader.

[Poirot]

Bernier wants to simplify the tax system. He wants to raise the personal exemption to $15,000. Instead of five brackets he is proposing two. 15% on income between $15,000 and $100,000 and 25% above that. He would cut a lot of tax credits and exemptions.

He also wants a free market for maple syrup producers.

[Poirot]

There is a Forum poll that put Clement in second place behind Bernier so he could have had a chance.

Seeing there are no big names running maybe someone not in caucus will see an opportunity. (or oppositions parties are ineffective to stop one party state.)

[Poirot]

A Mainstreet poll done just before the first leadership debate. Candidates who have declared late are not doing well in the poll compared to those who have campaigned for some time. Answers are from Conservative supporters not members but still better than general population.

Leitch 19%
Scheer 14%
Chong 12%
O'Toole and Bernier 11%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/canadas-donald-trump-leads-conservative-leadership-race/

Top three favourable opinion:
Scheer 34%
Leitch 31%
Chong and O'Toole 26%


Top three unfavourable opinion:
Bernier 29%
Leitch 22%
Trost 17%

[Poirot]

The wikipedia page about the 2004 leadership election has vote totals, points by province and percentages of points by ridings. I hope all data is correct. 
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election,_2004

Stronach finished first in points in NL, PEI, NS, NB, Quebec and Nunavut. Probably small membership provinces so she received 23% of total vote but got 34% of points.   

[Poirot]

In the December CROP poll on Quebec voting intentions, there was a hypothetical Bernier leader question. CROP lists party names with leaders in the question. There was almost no difference with Bernier as party leader.

Regular result:
Lib 55% NDP 16% Bloc 13% PCC 11% Green 5%

With Bernier leader:
Lib 53% NDP 16% Bloc 13% PCC 13% Green 5%

An increase of 2% is very minimal impact. 

[Poirot]

Prominent Montreal businessman Daniel Fournier may or may not have considered running 3 weeks ago but there has been no mention since then.

There was an article during the week. Didn't predict if he would run or not. He has been consulting people across the country. 
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201612/13/01-5051116-succession-de-stephen-harper-daniel-fournier-en-consultations-intensives.php

[Poirot]

After consultations, Daniel Fournier has decided  he will not run.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201612/22/01-5054087-100-000-pour-postuler-a-la-succession-de-harper.php

I'm curious to see if the Quebec MPs will start to endorse candidates after the next debate in Quebec City. 

[Poirot]

Dan Lindsay is withdrawing from the leadership race.

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Nelson Wiseman's entire column strikes me as fighting old battles between Quebec and English Canada (or English Speaking Canada.)  As one of the replies there points out, Canada is now much more like other countries with ideological divisions based on urban/rural divides and the like, including, increasingly in Quebec itself.

I read the comments section and someone is refuting the author's statement calling Raitt the establishment candidate claiming it is Scheer. From the Wikipedia CPC leadership page Scheer has 20 Mps supporting him, O'Toole 14 and Raitt only 3.

For a university professor he is not very nuanced (or he is confident of his ability to predict the future). I didn't take the column has a battle between Quebec and English speaking Canada... well in a way yes since the conclusion is Quebec still has outsized influence, like he was complaining Quebec decides everything! I probably don't understand his point because he also talks about the last NDP convention and the next leadership race and Quebec represents about 10% of the votes.

I think it's true there are more divisions within Quebec. There is no more a two party system like decades ago but 3-4 parties at the federal and provincial level. Quebec City and south of it has developped a more conservative, anti-union, anti-state, anti-nationalist culture for example. 

[Poirot]

It's not only Nelson Wiseman who is prediciting a Maxime Bernier win.

In his 2017 predictions Don Martin thinks the same.

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http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-s-political-predictions-for-2017-1.3205387
Michael Den Tandt also chose Mad Max Bernier in his 2017 predictions.

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http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/michael-den-tandt-mad-max-bernier-will-be-the-next-conservative-leader-and-other-predictions-for-2017

They seem to know they are not good in their predictions. I have a hard time picturing Bernier winning. Like Stéphane Dion becoming leader was a shock and surprise, Bernier would be the same. He is not respected or liked by a big part of the population in Quebec. Opinion can change, and becoming leader is an acomplishment and increase your stature. But if you propose policies like privatizing Canada Post, endind supply management farming, you know you will have people against you from the start. His very limited role of government is probably easy to attack by the other parties.     

[Poirot]

I challenge you to all predict the balloting.

Just to play because I have not much confidence and before we have some public polls with O'Leary included.

1st ballot

O'Leary 23
Bernier 17
Leitch 12
Raitt 10
Scheer 8.5
O'toole 7
Chong 7
Blaney 4.5
Trost 4
Alexander 3
Lemieux 1
Obhrai 1
Saxton 0.5

When votes of lower candidates are redistributes, the top five:

O'Leary 29.5
Bernier 23
Raitt 17
Scheer 16.5
Leitch 14

Leitch is eliminated, scheer moves ahead of Raitt, so
O'Leary 41
Bernier 32.5
Scheer 26.5

O'Leary 51
Bernier 49

[Poirot]

In a Forum poll O'Leary has a wide lead among people who voted Conservative (Bernier second). In the small sample of members, the lead is smaller but still double support of second place candidate Raitt.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2653/oleary-holds-commanding-lead-in-conservative-leadership-contest/

Bernard Généreux, president of the Québec caucus,  has decided he will remain neutral in the leadership race. That leaves only Gérard Deltell and Joël Godin for Québec MPs who might endorse a candidate.

Following the Québec City debate in which rhe quality of French was the main topic, a professor was asked to rank the candidates French on 10.
 
Bernier and Blaney 10
Alexander 9
Peterson 8
Chong, Scheer and Lemieux 7
Saxton and O'Toole 6
Trost 5
Raitt 4
Leitch 3
Obhrai 1
 
http://www.journaldequebec.com/2017/01/18/la-langue-francaise-ecorchee

[Poirot]

Numbers for fourth quarter fundraising are out.

Bernier is clearly above the others in money and number of donors. Leitch is second then it's Scheer.

Raitt doesn't have good numbers but I think the reason could be she was not a candidate for all the quarter.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-q42016-fundraising-1.3959783

[Poirot]

Other candidates are trying to capitalize on Bernier's ideological vulnerabilities, especially supply management, here.

At the end, it says a Deltell's endorsement could swing some votes. Maybe he will stay neutral. Hard to go for O'Leary when you say speaking French is important. Difficult to go for Bernier if he has dreams of being leader in the future since it could take some time they choose another leader from Quebec. Being a party man maybe he will go to Scheer and that could bring a few needed points. Not sure people will change their mind the close we are to the end.

I like the article gave membership numbers. 65 of 78 ridings have fewer than 100 members.
38 ridings (about half) have less than 30 members which means 27 have betwween 30 and 100 and 13 have over 100 members.

I've read in another article they have about 5000 members and Bernier would like to double that by the end of the campaign. Don't know if it's doable or too ambitious.

What I would like is a poll giving results by region with the main leadership contenders as leader of the party to see who could make gains in Ontario.         

[Poirot]

Unless candidates need to make another payment, if you don't mind maybe getting not much votes, why not stay in the race. The reason is to stop other people from winning, maybe she would support O'Toole or Scheer.

Read this in the National Post:

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I've read Bernier is sometimes refered to as the Albertan from Quebec. No wonder they like him, he sounds like a Reform candidate.