Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[DC Al Fine]

Rempel is running for interim, backed by LeBel, and seems to think it's a done deal. Not happy that someone so underqualified would get the leader's post.

Between that and her little Twitter outburst, she seems to not have the best judgement. FInley is the best candidate if we need to choose a woman/minority.

The other name mentioned initially as interim leader was outgoing Foreign Affairs Minister Rob Nicholson.  But, as was mentioned at the time he got that portfolio, he doesn't speak French.

I would suggest Peter Van Loan as interim leader.  He was the Government House leader which meant he was effectively the Chief Operating Officer and, I would suspect that he needed to speak French in order to have been appointed that.  I also don't think he's interested in running for the full leadership job.

VanLoan is a bit of a bulldog IIRC. Might not be the best for setting the less confrontational tone everyone is talking about.

[DC Al Fine]

Ambrose is interim.

Fair enough.

[DC Al Fine]

How do you guys think the Conservatives are interpreting this loss? Do they think it was just because Harper was in charge for almost a decade and he was thrown out because of a desire for change. Or was it because he led the party too far to the right?

From what I've seen, it's much more the former than the latter so far.

Agreed. Most of the people I've talked to think the party needs a change in tone, and a somewhat expanded platform, but that the fundamentals of the party are sound.

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories need to move back to their Progressive Conservative roots and win back the immigrant vote if they want to win another majority.

The Tories did well among Chinese voters (winning Markham-Unionville which is more Chinese under the new riding configuration, increasing their vote share in Agincourt and holding on in Richmond while getting slaughtered in the GVRD).  Among South Asians however there was a big swing to the Liberals.

The Conservatives held Richmond Centre but that riding had the lowest voter turnout in British Columbia.  My early guess is that it was mainly the Chinese who didn't turn out to vote as they were turned off by the Conservative campaign demonizing some immigrant groups but couldn't vote for any other party. 

The Liberals won the other Richmond riding, Steveston-Richmond East.

The two Richmond ridings had very shoddy turnout in 2011 as well.

As Kensington already noted Tory vote share increased or held up very well in heavily Chinese ridings. Tory declines in BC were much worse whiter, less Chinese ridings. Occam's razor would suggest that the Tories did reasonably well among the Chinese.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm comparing transposed results.  In fact, the Tories would have won the current Markham-Unionville in 2011 as well (both the "Oak Ridges" part and the part McCallum represented).  It's hard to find too many ridings in Ontario where the Conservative vote share went up and where the raw vote increased by as much as it did in that riding.

I hate Harper too, but let's not let narratives we like contradict the facts.  I'm just not buying this hypothesis that Chinese voters didn't turn out because they found Harper intolerant or anti-immigrant.  

Precisely. Even when a party has a bad election, there will probably be a group that will trend towards it. The Tories did way better with Jewish and Chinese voters than say 2006. The NDP vote held up pretty well in East Montreal (I don't know which groups that suggests they did well with). Such is life in our changing country.

[DC Al Fine]

I wish I had thought this through more in the campaign because it's so obvious in hindsight: It always bugged me when people talked about the Tories hurting themselves with "the immigrant vote" as if immigrants were all from one ethnic group or something. I kept thinking "why would a Chinese guy in Richmond care about the niqab?".

I mean I can totally see why a Brampton Sikh would relate those attacks to his personal situation, but not members of other groups. Now that the election results are in, it's clear; Harper bombed with Indo-Canadians and did well among Sino-Canadians.

[DC Al Fine]

(Is newly elected Bob Saroya - who beat a Chinese Liberal in Markham-Unionville - now the only Indo Canadian Tory in Parliament?)

Deepak Obhrai is still in parliament. Well technically he was born in Tanzania, but still.

[DC Al Fine]

I think Lisa Raitt could be a strong candidate as well.

If MacKay gets it, would he run in a by-election?  Some Ontario MP would step aside for him?

He'd pretty much have to. Two plus years is a long time to be out of parliament for an opposition leader. Not that it would be a problem. Surely there's some old guy in caucus who's willing to give up his safe seat.

[DC Al Fine]

The CPC fell back in too many BC ridings for me to think the Chinese vote didn't swing from the Conservatives. They gained in 2 Chinese heavy ridings in Ontario. But they fell back everywhere in BC. Even the Tory island of Richmond Centre saw a 14 point decrease for the CPC.

To clarify, we were arguing against the idea that the Tory vote 'collapsed' with Chinese voters. Chinese voters probably trended Tory this time, but they probably didn't swing Tory either.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm still skeptical that he pulls the trigger. Rumour in my EDA was that his wife was upset how little time he was spending with her and baby.

Of course maybe it's not true. Perhaps he quit because he thought the leadership wasn't meant to be and the election gave him a new opening.

[DC Al Fine]

Do Mormons count?

I don't think they hit the "ethno" in ethno-religious. You are right about their politics though. Cardston, AB, is the site of the first Mormon Temple in Canada and voted ~ 90% Tory in 2011.

[DC Al Fine]

Even without the long form census issue, Canadian religion stats wouldn't be very good.  For some reason StatsCan put way too many groups into the "Other Christian" category in 2011 that used to have their own categories before. Mormons, Jehovah's Witness, Mennonites, non-denominational Evangelicals, Dutch Calvinists, and vaguely spiritual, unaffiliated Christians all get put in the same category, which makes analysis more difficult.

[DC Al Fine]

So Forum did a poll and Peter MacKay is winning the name recognition contest

[DC Al Fine]

His image as being able to attract immigrants to the CPC also took a bad hit when the Tories lost literally every single seat they had in immigrant rich areas in this election.

Richmond Centre and Markham-Unionville aren't immigrant rich? As has been discussed before on this thread. The Tories bombed with many Indo-Canadians, but held up surprisingly well among Sino-Canadians.

Canadians have to become aware of that in the first place.

Two points re: Kenney

a) The MSM seems to have a very 1950's view of socons, particularly Evangelicals. I have read concern trolling articles that we wouldn't support Santorum because Catholic, Romney because Mormon, or Brown because unmarried. Unless, his sex life resembles John Baird's I doubt socons will care. Plus, how exactly do you cover Kenney's probable homosexuality as a progressive leaning journalist without coming off as a biased hack?

b) There have been rumours that he doesn't want the top job and would rather play kingmaker/top cabinet minister. Are there any backups to be the socon and/or Blues's standard bearer if he bows out?

[DC Al Fine]

Clement is organizing a bid, assuming that Kenney won't run and may return to Alberta to lead the smoking hulk.

I was freaking out until you noted that he would be leading a unite the right campaign

[DC Al Fine]

For the hilarity: Caroline Mulroney floated again.

So dynasty politics is a thing now in Canada?

My main reaction to that column by Christina blizzard is "isn't it a bit early for April fools day jokes"?

Occam's razor guys. It's been a slow news week and she needed material for her column.

[DC Al Fine]

So Kevin O'Leary is mulling a run...

[DC Al Fine]

One PKP is bad enough. And needless to say, the leadership should always be in professional hands.

Do you remember back in 2008 when Harper said something like "Yeah the market is crashing, but it's a good time to buy"? Remember the reaction that got?

O'Leary has a penchant for saying stuff like that all the time. If you want a free marketeer, Bernier would be a better bet.

[DC Al Fine]

New Poll Conservative Party Members only

Mainstreet Research Jan 15th 
Peter MacKay 25%
Kevin O'Leary 23%
Jason Kenney 8%
Maxime Bernier 4%
Lisa Raitt 4%
Kellie Leitch 3%
None of the above 3%
Undecided 29%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/make-canada-great-again-oleary-mckay-tied/

I would be surprised if Kevin O Leary won, as outsiders rarely do well in Canadian leadership races, but I guess will see.

This is essentially a name recognition poll.

[DC Al Fine]

Ivison is so much better than cheap trolling like this.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oh FFS, his column reads like a bad Atlas thread.

[DC Al Fine]

On another note, what exactly is the appeal of a Leitch candidacy? She seems very inoffensive and second choicey, but I can't really see her first choice appeal.

[DC Al Fine]

Does the party establishment really thinks a MacKay win would provoke a split? It must be early Reformers or Harper inner circle types who treat almost everyone as enemy.

Ivison has said on Twitter he doesn't believe it will happen, but being discussed by senior establishment types. Probably the same guys who said Harper might resign after his Israel trip 2 years ago.

This talk reminds me of people saying the Democrats were going to retake the House in 2014*. Sure its possible, but people ignore how extreme conditions were historically to create the event. The conditions in the Tories today in no way resemble what led to the creation of the Reform Party. There is no equivalent to R. v Mortgentaler, or Meech Lake, or GST to tear the party up.

*I.e. make sizeable gains as an incumbent party in a midterm election. 2014 was not 1934

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau is 6 months into his first term. It's a little early to be talking about his second majority guys.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm not sure how you can admit Canadian politics' ridiculous volatility and then be certain that the Liberals will form the next government, especially so early on in the government. There's so much that can happen between now and 2019.

Remember, at this point in George Bush's presidency, people were certain his presidency was going to be all about education reform...

[DC Al Fine]

Mike Chong is entering next month.

Strikes me as kind of Jon Huntsmany (i.e. He will be much more popular on the internet than at the ballot box). Still glad to see him in though. CHong is my favourite red.