Newfoundland election, Nov 2015
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Author Topic: Newfoundland election, Nov 2015  (Read 23749 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: October 23, 2015, 12:50:44 AM »
« edited: October 23, 2015, 02:09:26 PM by CrabCake the Liberal Magician »

So this is the next Canadian election, although it will probably end up looking like your average North Korean election unless something goes weird.

So to recaP, following the highly popular rule of Danny "the Harper-hating Tory" Williams, fellow Tory Kathy Dunderdale was duly elected to succeed him. Following a series of mishaps, poor economic figures, budget bloating, struggles with fishing legislation and an attempt to weaken the Freedom of Info law her approval figures were left subterranean and she resigned. A leadership race was held with three candidates, the first of which was kicked out for racist Twitter messages, the second left because "his heart wasn't in it" (and apparently nobody liked him) and the apparent leader by default Frank Coleman never bothered to take up his post, citing a family situation.

So ... nobody won? Which was a very silly situation. A new race was called, which Paul Davis (eventually, after the first ballot showed a tie) won. He immediately served with distinction, putting an unelected lawyer in cabinet who started a strange reform of the emergency services that nobody understood; had a month long semantics-based argument with the state bar on his proposal to rename the Dept of Justice and had to otherwise weather the brutal conditions many oil-producing regions are enduring at present.

So what about the NDP? They got a record 5 seats in 2011, what will happen there? Well turns out the new four MP's had a falling out with leader Lorraine Michael sending her a letter urging her to call a leadership race. She was offended, causing two members to backtrack, but two others to resign their whips and join the Liberals. Then she was endorsed in a leadership review, but resigned anyway after poor by-election results, which were won by trade unionist Earl McCUrdy.

Oh yeah, by elections. There's been a few. A typical example of the swings involved is Conception Bay South:

Liberal (+42)
Tory (-21)
NDP (-21)

Trinity Bay Verde?

Liberal (+42)
Tory (-33)
NDP (-9)

Or good old Humber East (the seat of the interim PC leader and long term-cabinet minister)?

Liberal (+48)
Etc.

Anyway, last election the numbers were:

Tory 37
Liberal 6
NDP 5

Although they now look like this:

Tory 28
Liberal 18
NDP 3

(there are no Greens btw, as they tore themselves to shreds a while back over the seal hunt)

So yes. then the province was swept up by Biebermania, and no doubt this election will have the effect of a happy honeymoon for the Liberals led by Dwight Ball. I personally will be on tenterhooks at what will no doubt be a compelling and very suspenseful election.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2015, 03:30:46 AM »

The number of seats has been reduced to forty. The NDP has nominated 9 candidates so far.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2015, 05:05:40 AM »

Yeah, this one will not be close Tongue
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2015, 07:07:12 AM »

After this election there won't be a single government in Canada led by a party with "Conservative" in its name. SK, Yukon, and BC will still have centre-right governments.

When is the Yukon election, btw?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2015, 09:04:38 AM »

I can think of only two ridings the Liberals might not win: Ferryland and Cape St. Francis.
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Volrath50
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2015, 09:21:48 AM »

The Liberals were already set to win a massive majority before Trudeaumania hit Newfoundland. Now, basking in the reflected glory of J.T., I can conceivably see the Liberals winning literally every seat in Newfoundland and Labrador provincially. I mean, if the Liberals can take Jack Harris' seat federally, where they trailed something like 70% to 8% in 2011 and was incredibly personally popular, there really should be no seat they can't conceivable take provincially.
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Krago
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2015, 10:42:03 AM »

Great wrap-up CC, but you forgot to mention the bizarre PC leadership convention that elected Paul Davis.

http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Local/2014-09-13/article-3868114/UPDATE%3A-Paul-Davis-wins-PC-leadership/1

There were only two candidates on the second ballot, and Davis beat John Ottenheimer by one vote (340 to 339).  Since the party's constitution states that the winner must get 50% + 1 of the valid votes cast, the organizers ruled than Davis fell half a vote short of victory.  They scrambled to conduct a third ballot, and Davis won by a margin of 351 to 326.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2015, 02:14:10 PM »

Lmao Krago.

I wonder if any defeated MP's (like Jack Harris) could be emergency drafted in to rescue the chance of an opposition existing.

The number of seats has been reduced to forty. The NDP has nominated 9 candidates so far.

Yes, a poor decision by the Pc's seizing as it makes them even less likely to have a presence in the legislature.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2015, 08:21:06 PM »

McCurdy should switch out Michael for Harris imo. I dont think there are that many seats Harris could win, but I bet he could win hers.
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Adam T
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2015, 09:19:42 PM »

McCurdy should switch out Michael for Harris imo. I dont think there are that many seats Harris could win, but I bet he could win hers.

Has Jack Harris indicated he has any interest in running?  I find it a little hard to believe he'd be interested.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2015, 09:34:28 PM »

Maybe he should run for mayor.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2015, 10:02:06 PM »


He did that already.  Doesn't mean he couldn't again of course.

My guess is the NDP may be more interested in having Ryan Cleary run provincially.  Earle McCurdy is 67 or something and Cleary was already mentioned this time around as a possible leadership candidate.  He'd be an obvious successor to McCurdy.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2015, 10:51:59 AM »

Here in Britain there are quite a few councils without an opposition (Manchester immediately springs to mind), can I ask if a provincial election has ever produced a literal one party state?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2015, 11:03:45 AM »

Here in Britain there are quite a few councils without an opposition (Manchester immediately springs to mind), can I ask if a provincial election has ever produced a literal one party state?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Brunswick_general_election,_1987

Tldr: Tory Premier seeking his 5th term did the following:

1) Used a government plane to go clubbing in Manhattan
2) Enjoyed Berlusconi style bunga bunga parties, only with more cocaine and gay men

New Brunswick is very rural so the NDP weren't a factor.

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Adam T
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2015, 11:09:28 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2015, 11:12:39 AM by Adam T »

Here in Britain there are quite a few councils without an opposition (Manchester immediately springs to mind), can I ask if a provincial election has ever produced a literal one party state?

There may be more, but the obvious one that springs to mind is the 1987 provincial election in New Brunswick.  The incumbent P.C Premier, Richard Hatfield, had served for a long time and in his final term a number of personal infidelities of his came to light, and his government had other problems, and the Liberal Party under Frank McKenna won around 60% of the vote to around 30% for the P.C Party and won all 58 seats.

There were cases of near complete sweeps in Alberta when the P.C Party was winning elections in 1975, 1979 and 1983 though things did become more competitive from 1986 until the P.Cs were finally defeated this year.

Prior to the P.C Party coming to power in 1971, the Social Credit government from, I believe, 1935-1971 may have swept every seat or come very close one or two times.

I believe Liberal Premier Joe Ghiz in PEI won one election by either 31 seats to one or 30 seats to two and the CCF (NDP) in Saskatchewan in 1944 won 42 of 47 seats.

Finally, in 2001 the B.C Liberals under Gordon Campbell crushed the incumbent NDP 77 seats to two.
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Adam T
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2015, 11:11:49 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2015, 11:13:35 AM by Adam T »

Here in Britain there are quite a few councils without an opposition (Manchester immediately springs to mind), can I ask if a provincial election has ever produced a literal one party state?
New Brunswick is very rural so the NDP weren't a factor.

That's not quite accurate.  The NDP also lost the one seat they held to the Liberals as their Party leader (Robert Hall or some name like that) went down to defeat in, I believe, a Fredericton riding.

The NDP did get nearly all of the remaining 10% of the vote in that election, which is frequently enough to win a seat.
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the506
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2015, 12:49:35 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2015, 12:56:42 PM by the506 »

"I was elected to run New Brunswick. Nobody said I had to live here" - Richard Hatfield

Only other case was PEI 1935. LIB 30, CON 0.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2015, 01:02:13 PM »

Here in Britain there are quite a few councils without an opposition (Manchester immediately springs to mind), can I ask if a provincial election has ever produced a literal one party state?

There may be more, but the obvious one that springs to mind is the 1987 provincial election in New Brunswick.  The incumbent P.C Premier, Richard Hatfield, had served for a long time and in his final term a number of personal infidelities of his came to light, and his government had other problems, and the Liberal Party under Frank McKenna won around 60% of the vote to around 30% for the P.C Party and won all 58 seats.

There were cases of near complete sweeps in Alberta when the P.C Party was winning elections in 1975, 1979 and 1983 though things did become more competitive from 1986 until the P.Cs were finally defeated this year.

Prior to the P.C Party coming to power in 1971, the Social Credit government from, I believe, 1935-1971 may have swept every seat or come very close one or two times.

I believe Liberal Premier Joe Ghiz in PEI won one election by either 31 seats to one or 30 seats to two and the CCF (NDP) in Saskatchewan in 1944 won 42 of 47 seats.

Finally, in 2001 the B.C Liberals under Gordon Campbell crushed the incumbent NDP 77 seats to two.

in PEI in 1935 the Liberals won every seat

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1935
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2015, 03:49:50 PM »

Ryan Cleary is talking with Davis about running for the Tories.

Strategies: Chicken Little for the Tories, shrug for the Grits.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2015, 04:05:37 PM »


What the heck?

Well, he has been no stranger to controversy.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2015, 04:17:50 PM »

Specifically, in Windsor Lake.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2015, 05:22:21 PM »



Atlantic Canada: the place where the ideologies are made-up and the parties don't matter.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2015, 05:34:26 PM »



Atlantic Canada: the place where the ideologies are made-up and the parties don't matter.

In Atlantic Canada, NDP is center-center-left, Liberals are center and PC is center-center-right.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2015, 10:42:38 AM »

Confirmed: Cleary wants to get his ass kicked by Grits twice in 6 weeks.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2015, 01:39:14 PM »

So presumably he's now been expelled from the NDP? Utterly bizarre development though.
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