Newfoundland election, Nov 2015
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  Newfoundland election, Nov 2015
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Author Topic: Newfoundland election, Nov 2015  (Read 23750 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #50 on: November 13, 2015, 12:24:00 PM »

There are ridings that will always go Liberal in Newfoundland. The question is, is the same true for the Tories? I can see them holding on to Ferryland and Cape St. Francis.
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DL
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« Reply #51 on: November 13, 2015, 01:06:56 PM »

I'm not sure that there are "ridings that will always go Liberal" in NL. The Liberals have been reduced to as little as 4 seats in the Williams landslides and there was a certain randomness to which seats they held on to (usually very narrowly) - in most cases it was just a particularly popular local MHA who managed to buck the trend and where had that person retired it would have certainly been a PC pick up.

One thing that COULD happen in NL over the next three weeks is that the Liberal landslide becomes such a foregone conclusion and there starts to be so much speculation as to whether there will be ANY opposition MHAs elected at all - that people start to want to elect a few strong opposition voices. I think back to the 1984 federal election where once it became clear that Mulroney was headed for the greatest landslide in Canadian history - some popular NDP and Liberal incumbents managed to buck the trend and get re-elected because people started thinking about electing an opposition.

Not saying this will happen - only that it could.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #52 on: November 13, 2015, 01:10:17 PM »

There are ridings that will always go Liberal in Newfoundland. The question is, is the same true for the Tories? I can see them holding on to Ferryland and Cape St. Francis.

It's certainly possible. Politics are more local in Atlantic Canada, especially in rural areas. Personally I predict the Tories and NDP will retain one seat each.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #53 on: November 13, 2015, 02:16:27 PM »

There are ridings that will always go Liberal in Newfoundland. The question is, is the same true for the Tories? I can see them holding on to Ferryland and Cape St. Francis.

It's certainly possible. Politics are more local in Atlantic Canada, especially in rural areas. Personally I predict the Tories and NDP will retain one seat each.

It's looking less likely, I admit, but I stand by my prediction that the election momentum will turn against the Liberals and the final result will be

Liberal 50%
P.C 30%
NDP 20%

As I thought the polling firms had learned prior to the recent federal election, I'm not foolish enough to try to transfer aggregate electoral numbers into seat projections.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #54 on: November 13, 2015, 02:45:19 PM »
« Edited: November 13, 2015, 02:47:11 PM by 🍁 Hatman »

I'm not sure that there are "ridings that will always go Liberal" in NL. The Liberals have been reduced to as little as 4 seats in the Williams landslides and there was a certain randomness to which seats they held on to (usually very narrowly)


Um, no check again. Burgeo-La Poile and Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair were won by the Liberals pretty handily in 2007. Not random or close in either case. The Liberals only won three seats that year, the third (Port de Grave) I agree was both random and close (PCs actually hold it now!)

LaPoile has only ever voted PC twice and Cartwright has never voted PC since confederation.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #55 on: November 13, 2015, 02:51:43 PM »

Also:

Ferryland has not voted Liberal since 1966
Cape St Francis has never voted Liberal since confederation.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jack Harris won the Cape St. Francis area in the federal election.
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Smid
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« Reply #56 on: November 13, 2015, 11:00:39 PM »

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #57 on: November 14, 2015, 01:54:12 PM »

Liberal rally in Placentia was cancelled due to a bomb threat. Grit campaign has been suspended for the rest of today, Ball headed back to St. John's.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #58 on: November 16, 2015, 05:15:42 PM »

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #59 on: November 16, 2015, 05:17:17 PM »

(Smid, I didn't realize you were making a map this time; just noticed your map now Tongue)

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #60 on: November 17, 2015, 08:36:18 AM »

St. John's West-Abacus: 57/24/19.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #61 on: November 17, 2015, 02:32:59 PM »

It should be noted that this is NDP leader McCurdy's district. McCurdy trailing isn't that much of a surprise, though. In fact 308 has him trailing by even more than what this poll shows based on a proportional swing.
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136or142
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« Reply #62 on: November 17, 2015, 02:39:05 PM »

It should be noted that this is NDP leader McCurdy's district. McCurdy trailing isn't that much of a surprise, though. In fact 308 has him trailing by even more than what this poll shows based on a proportional swing.

Just wait for McCurdymania!

I've used this 'mania' line previously.  It's from a cartoon editorial I remember that showed Herb Gray looking at a newspaper with an opinion poll showing a large lead for the Liberals at the time he was the party's interim leader and thinking to himself "Well, well, well, Herbmania!"
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #63 on: November 17, 2015, 03:14:47 PM »

It should be noted that this is NDP leader McCurdy's district. McCurdy trailing isn't that much of a surprise, though. In fact 308 has him trailing by even more than what this poll shows based on a proportional swing.

More brilliant Eric Grenier #analysis
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #64 on: November 17, 2015, 07:51:51 PM »

It should be noted that this is NDP leader McCurdy's district. McCurdy trailing isn't that much of a surprise, though. In fact 308 has him trailing by even more than what this poll shows based on a proportional swing.

More brilliant Eric Grenier #analysis

If you do not mind me asking what is your issue with Eric Grenier,
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #65 on: November 18, 2015, 07:47:26 AM »

Topsail-Paradise (Premier Davis's seat): 56-35-9

http://abacusdata.ca/nl-election-2015-topsail-paradise-premier-davis-in-tough-trails-rex-hillier-by-21-points/

The Liberals got 5% here in 2011.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #66 on: November 18, 2015, 09:22:43 AM »

That'd be the first time a premier lost their seat in post-Confederation NL history. Wowza.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #67 on: November 18, 2015, 09:44:38 AM »

It should be noted that this is NDP leader McCurdy's district. McCurdy trailing isn't that much of a surprise, though. In fact 308 has him trailing by even more than what this poll shows based on a proportional swing.

More brilliant Eric Grenier #analysis

If you do not mind me asking what is your issue with Eric Grenier,

He misleads the public with his inaccurate model, that's been proven time and time again to be extremely flawed. The media just gobbles his analysis up anyways. What was particularly unnerving was the fact that the CBC (our public broadcaster for pete's sake!) partnered with him in the federal election, allowing him to mislead an even larger audience.

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #68 on: November 18, 2015, 02:54:58 PM »

Breaking down Newfoundland's new map: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/11/newfoundland-and-labradors-new.html
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Smid
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« Reply #69 on: November 19, 2015, 02:24:54 AM »

(Smid, I didn't realize you were making a map this time; just noticed your map now Tongue)



I thought about emailing it to you when I finished it on the weekend, but decided that posting it here was simpler. I'll probably work on Saskatchewan next, unless Quebec is due next?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #70 on: November 19, 2015, 07:16:24 AM »

(Smid, I didn't realize you were making a map this time; just noticed your map now Tongue)



I thought about emailing it to you when I finished it on the weekend, but decided that posting it here was simpler. I'll probably work on Saskatchewan next, unless Quebec is due next?

Saskatchewan is next.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #71 on: November 19, 2015, 08:16:52 AM »

Abacus-Mount Pearl North: 54/37/9.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #72 on: November 19, 2015, 10:40:11 AM »

There was an error in my data, so here is the updated map:



Bay of Islands actually went PC (and St. George's-Humber less so)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #73 on: November 20, 2015, 07:39:48 AM »
« Edited: November 20, 2015, 08:23:24 AM by RogueBeaver »

Cleary's political masochism knows no bounds: down 74/16/10 in Windsor Lake.
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DL
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« Reply #74 on: November 20, 2015, 10:08:24 AM »
« Edited: November 20, 2015, 12:51:41 PM by DL »


I'm not at all surprised - what the hell was Cleary thinking! The ultimate humiliation for him would be to finish behind the no-name NDP candidate as well!
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