Newfoundland election, Nov 2015

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The number of seats has been reduced to forty. The NDP has nominated 9 candidates so far.

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McCurdy should switch out Michael for Harris imo. I dont think there are that many seats Harris could win, but I bet he could win hers.

Has Jack Harris indicated he has any interest in running?  I find it a little hard to believe he'd be interested.

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Maybe he should run for mayor.

He did that already.  Doesn't mean he couldn't again of course.

My guess is the NDP may be more interested in having Ryan Cleary run provincially.  Earle McCurdy is 67 or something and Cleary was already mentioned this time around as a possible leadership candidate.  He'd be an obvious successor to McCurdy.

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Here in Britain there are quite a few councils without an opposition (Manchester immediately springs to mind), can I ask if a provincial election has ever produced a literal one party state?

There may be more, but the obvious one that springs to mind is the 1987 provincial election in New Brunswick.  The incumbent P.C Premier, Richard Hatfield, had served for a long time and in his final term a number of personal infidelities of his came to light, and his government had other problems, and the Liberal Party under Frank McKenna won around 60% of the vote to around 30% for the P.C Party and won all 58 seats.

There were cases of near complete sweeps in Alberta when the P.C Party was winning elections in 1975, 1979 and 1983 though things did become more competitive from 1986 until the P.Cs were finally defeated this year.

Prior to the P.C Party coming to power in 1971, the Social Credit government from, I believe, 1935-1971 may have swept every seat or come very close one or two times.

I believe Liberal Premier Joe Ghiz in PEI won one election by either 31 seats to one or 30 seats to two and the CCF (NDP) in Saskatchewan in 1944 won 42 of 47 seats.

Finally, in 2001 the B.C Liberals under Gordon Campbell crushed the incumbent NDP 77 seats to two.

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Here in Britain there are quite a few councils without an opposition (Manchester immediately springs to mind), can I ask if a provincial election has ever produced a literal one party state?

New Brunswick is very rural so the NDP weren't a factor.

That's not quite accurate.  The NDP also lost the one seat they held to the Liberals as their Party leader (Robert Hall or some name like that) went down to defeat in, I believe, a Fredericton riding.

The NDP did get nearly all of the remaining 10% of the vote in that election, which is frequently enough to win a seat.

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Manitoba: Liberal majority
I think the NDP will collapse, letting the Liberals win with Winnipeg. The election would look a lot like an Ontario election, with NDP in the north and a few urban ridings, most urban areas going Liberal and the rural south going PC. Despite the current PC lead, having a single big city greatly helps the centre-left in Manitoba as compared to Sask in terms of vote efficiency, not to mention Pallister is also quite unappealing himself.

If the Liberals win more than 5 or so seats in Manitoba I'd be shocked.

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Part of me wants to see a sweep. I remember being disappointed when Williams didn't 8 years ago.

I could be wrong, but based on the approval ratings the P.C government had a few months ago (although maybe those were just due to the effects of a new premier) as well as the, I expect, strong campaign that Earle McCurdy will run, as well as the fact that the Liberals look like they are going to run a frontrunner 'bubble' campaign, that it's going to be all downhill for the Liberals from here.

I would still expect them to get around 50% of the vote, so they should win handily, but not a landslide of epic proportions.

My early prediction would be
Liberal: 50%
P.C: 30%
NDP: 20%

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The public usually hates the Liberals in between elections.  That being said, Clark does seem to have been going out of her way to burn bridges with the good and mostly pragmatic voters of Vancouver.  If the NDP figure out how to run a campaign, they might have something to work with this time around.   
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Christy Clark doesn't want to burn any bridge, she wants to do Yoga on bridges.

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There are ridings that will always go Liberal in Newfoundland. The question is, is the same true for the Tories? I can see them holding on to Ferryland and Cape St. Francis.

It's certainly possible. Politics are more local in Atlantic Canada, especially in rural areas. Personally I predict the Tories and NDP will retain one seat each.

It's looking less likely, I admit, but I stand by my prediction that the election momentum will turn against the Liberals and the final result will be

Liberal 50%
P.C 30%
NDP 20%

As I thought the polling firms had learned prior to the recent federal election, I'm not foolish enough to try to transfer aggregate electoral numbers into seat projections.

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St. John's West-Abacus: 57/24/19.

It should be noted that this is NDP leader McCurdy's district. McCurdy trailing isn't that much of a surprise, though. In fact 308 has him trailing by even more than what this poll shows based on a proportional swing.

Just wait for McCurdymania!

I've used this 'mania' line previously.  It's from a cartoon editorial I remember that showed Herb Gray looking at a newspaper with an opinion poll showing a large lead for the Liberals at the time he was the party's interim leader and thinking to himself "Well, well, well, Herbmania!"

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Forum:
52 (-13)
29 (+8)
19 (+6)

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2431/progressive-conservatives-ndp-increase-vote-share/

Great poll!

If anyone cares, you'll remember my (approximated) prediction was
Liberal 50%
Conservative 30%
NDP 20%

Unfortunately, since this is a Forum "Poll", I'm now forced to predict the Liberals will get 65% of the vote.  

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Forum:
52 (-13)
29 (+8)
19 (+6)

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2431/progressive-conservatives-ndp-increase-vote-share/

Great poll!

If anyone cares, you'll remember my (approximated) prediction was
Liberal 50%
Conservative 30%
NDP 20%

Unfortunately, since this is a Forum "Poll", I'm now forced to predict the Liberals will get 65% of the vote.  

Responding to myself

Forum polls are wrong even when they're right. For instance, the final Forum poll on the Canadian election was virtually dead on, but the election polls they had prior to that were almost certainly considerably off.  So, I think it's fair to say that when Forum gets the actual results statistically correct, they pretty much just got lucky.

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Quidi Vidi is my second favorite riding name (or partial riding name in this case) after Tobique-Mactaquak.  Name a riding Mactaquak?  You must be either Qua(c)kers of Quidi(ng) me!

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Turnout is terrible.

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Astonishing results in Burgeo - La Poile

Liberal 3998 votes
PC 93 votes
NDP 53 votes

in %, Lib 97%, PC 2%, NDP 1%

North Korea!!

There's another riding with a very similar vote:
Cartwright-Lanse Au Clair 25/25 polls
Liberal: 1,405
NDP: 57
P.C: 48
Turnout: 49.30%

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Higher than D'Arcy-McGee. Wow.  I suppose both the NDP and PC candidates there were paper candidates from away?

The NDP had three paper candidates in this election, but the one in that riding was not one of them.  While the former Mayor of Wabush, Ron Barron, had the 3rd highest share of the vote for the NDP in his more urban Labrador riding, two of their three paper candidates ran in rural Labrador.

The only previous election result that I recall that produced similar numbers was the byelection in Athabasca Saskatchewan held when the MLA Buckley Belanger resigned to run again after switching parties from the Provincial Liberals to the NDP.

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Cabinet Prediction
1.Premier/Intergovernmental Affairs, Dwight Ball (Rural), MHA
2.Finance, Siobhan Coady, (St. John's), M.P 2008-2011
3.Economic Development and Trade/Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Carol Anne Haley, (Rural), M.P Judy Foote Assistant
4.Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Natural Resources, Gerry Byrne (Rural), M.P 1996-2015
5.Fisheries and Aquaculture, Derrick Bragg, (Rural), Town Fire Chief
6.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources/Environment, Tom Osborne (St. John's) MHA and former P.C Cabinet Minister
7.Transportation and Infrastructure/Government Services and Public Works, Cathy Bennett (St John's), MHA
8.Children and Family Development/Human Resources and Housing, Status of Women, Sherry Gamblin-Walsh (Avalon Peninsula)
9.Education/Advanced Education, Training and Technology, Al Hawkins  (Rural), Grand Falls-Windsor Mayor, former Education Superintendent Official and Former Software Development Company Executive Director
10.Health/Government House Leader, Steve Crocker (Avalon Peninsula), MHA
11.Municipal Affairs/Aboriginal and Labrador Affairs, Randy Edmunds (Labrador), MHA
12.Attorney General/Solicitor General/Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Andrew Parsons (Rural), MHA (only lawyer in Liberal caucus)

Chief Government Whip, Scott Reid
Speaker, Dale Kirby

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Higher than D'Arcy-McGee. Wow.  I suppose both the NDP and PC candidates there were paper candidates from away?

The NDP had three paper candidates in this election, but the one in that riding was not one of them.  While the former Mayor of Wabush, Ron Barron, had the 3rd highest share of the vote for the NDP in his more urban Labrador riding, two of their three paper candidates ran in rural Labrador.

I was somewhat incorrect. Up to nine NDP candidates were parachute/paper candidates (all in the rural parts of the Province), and that includes Burgeo-La Poile NDP candidate Kelly McKeown who lives in Conception Bay.  However it seems that she moved there to attend Memorial University as an adult nursing student and that she lived in Burgo-La Poile not long ago.  So, she can be considered as both a local candidate and as a parachute candidate.

Is it a particle or is it a wave?

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Cabinet Prediction
1.Premier/Intergovernmental Affairs, Dwight Ball (Rural), MHA
2.Finance, Siobhan Coady, (St. John's), M.P 2008-2011
3.Economic Development and Trade/Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Carol Anne Haley, (Rural), M.P Judy Foote Assistant
4.Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Natural Resources, Gerry Byrne (Rural), M.P 1996-2015
5.Fisheries and Aquaculture, Derrick Bragg, (Rural), Town Fire Chief
6.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources/Environment, Tom Osborne (St. John's) MHA and former P.C Cabinet Minister
7.Transportation and Infrastructure/Government Services and Public Works, Cathy Bennett (St John's), MHA
8.Children and Family Development/Human Resources and Housing, Status of Women, Sherry Gamblin-Walsh (Avalon Peninsula)
9.Education/Advanced Education, Training and Technology, Al Hawkins  (Rural), Grand Falls-Windsor Mayor, former Education Superintendent Official and Former Software Development Company Executive Director
10.Health/Government House Leader, Steve Crocker (Avalon Peninsula), MHA
11.Municipal Affairs/Aboriginal and Labrador Affairs, Randy Edmunds (Labrador), MHA
12.Attorney General/Solicitor General/Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Andrew Parsons (Rural), MHA (only lawyer in Liberal caucus)

Chief Government Whip, Scott Reid
Speaker, Dale Kirby

Actual cabinet
1.Premier/Labrador and Aboriginal Affairs/Intergovernmental Affairs, Dwight Ball

2.Finance and Treasury Board/Status of Women, Cathy Bennett

3.Business, Tourism, Culture and Rural Development, Research and Development Agency/Forestry and Agrifood Agency, Christopher Mitchelmore

4.Natural Resources/Office of Public Engagement/Deputy Government House Leader, Siobhan Coady

5.Fisheries and Aquaculture, Steve Crocker

6.Environment and Conservation andClimate Change and Energy Efficiency/ Labour Relations Agency/Francophone Affairs, Perry Trimper

7.Transportation and (Public) Works, Al Hawkins

8.Municipal Affairs/(Government Services)- Service NL, Fire and Emergency Services, Government Purchasing Agency, Workplace NL, Registrar General, Eddie Joyce

9.Children, Youth and Family Services/Seniors, Wellness and Social Development, NL Housing Corporation, Status of Persons with Disabilities, Sherry Gamblin-Walsh

10.Health and Community Services, John Haggie

11.Education and Early Childhood Development, Dale Kirby

12.Advanced Education and Skills, Gerry Byrne

13.Justice and Public Safety and Attorney General/Government House Leader, Andrew Parsons

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As usual, I got many of the names right, but the positions wrong.  The only two Liberal MHAs I correctly predicted the cabinet positions of where Sherry Gamblin-Walsh and Andrew Parsons (and, as I said Parsons is the only lawyer in the Liberal caucus.)

I correctly predicted Siobhan Coady, Gerry Byrne, Cathy Bennett, Al Hawkins and Steve Crocker would make the cut but did not get their portfolios right. 

The ones who got in the cabinet I did not predict were John Haggie, Eddie Joyce, Perry Trimper, Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore.

While both of the former New Democrats in the Liberal caucus got in the cabinet, I don't believe any former Progressive Conservatives made the grade.