Newfoundland election, Nov 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

I can think of only two ridings the Liberals might not win: Ferryland and Cape St. Francis.

[Hatman 🍁]

McCurdy should switch out Michael for Harris imo. I dont think there are that many seats Harris could win, but I bet he could win hers.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe he should run for mayor.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ryan Cleary is talking with Davis about running for the Tories.

What the heck?

Well, he has been no stranger to controversy.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can see a 1988 scenario happening in Manitoba. It's almost the perfect conditions for it, except the party isn't ready. But that can change.

[Hatman 🍁]

A sweep is quite possible, of course. As usual, Eric Grenier doesn't know what he's talking about.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are ridings that will always go Liberal in Newfoundland. The question is, is the same true for the Tories? I can see them holding on to Ferryland and Cape St. Francis.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm not sure that there are "ridings that will always go Liberal" in NL. The Liberals have been reduced to as little as 4 seats in the Williams landslides and there was a certain randomness to which seats they held on to (usually very narrowly)

Um, no check again. Burgeo-La Poile and Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair were won by the Liberals pretty handily in 2007. Not random or close in either case. The Liberals only won three seats that year, the third (Port de Grave) I agree was both random and close (PCs actually hold it now!)

LaPoile has only ever voted PC twice and Cartwright has never voted PC since confederation.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also:

Ferryland has not voted Liberal since 1966
Cape St Francis has never voted Liberal since confederation.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jack Harris won the Cape St. Francis area in the federal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

(Smid, I didn't realize you were making a map this time; just noticed your map now )

[Hatman 🍁]

St. John's West-Abacus: 57/24/19.

It should be noted that this is NDP leader McCurdy's district. McCurdy trailing isn't that much of a surprise, though. In fact 308 has him trailing by even more than what this poll shows based on a proportional swing.

More brilliant Eric Grenier #analysis

[Hatman 🍁]

St. John's West-Abacus: 57/24/19.

It should be noted that this is NDP leader McCurdy's district. McCurdy trailing isn't that much of a surprise, though. In fact 308 has him trailing by even more than what this poll shows based on a proportional swing.

More brilliant Eric Grenier #analysis

If you do not mind me asking what is your issue with Eric Grenier,

He misleads the public with his inaccurate model, that's been proven time and time again to be extremely flawed. The media just gobbles his analysis up anyways. What was particularly unnerving was the fact that the CBC (our public broadcaster for pete's sake!) partnered with him in the federal election, allowing him to mislead an even larger audience.

[Hatman 🍁]

Breaking down Newfoundland's new map: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/11/newfoundland-and-labradors-new.html

[Hatman 🍁]

(Smid, I didn't realize you were making a map this time; just noticed your map now )

I thought about emailing it to you when I finished it on the weekend, but decided that posting it here was simpler. I'll probably work on Saskatchewan next, unless Quebec is due next?

Saskatchewan is next.

[Hatman 🍁]

There was an error in my data, so here is the updated map:



Bay of Islands actually went PC (and St. George's-Humber less so)

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like VOCM wasted a bunch of money polling 4 safe Liberal seats. Not that there are many non safe Liberal seats to choose from.

But, running 4 telephone surveys amounting to 2000 cases in such a small geographical area must've been very expensive. This is why most riding polls are done via IVR these days.

4 ridings that should actually have been polled:

Ferryland
Cape St. Francis
St. John's Centre
St. John's East-Quidi Vidi

[Hatman 🍁]

But, running 4 telephone surveys amounting to 2000 cases in such a small geographical area must've been very expensive. This is why most riding polls are done via IVR these days.

It would be almost impossible to do IVR polls in provincial ridings in Newfoundland. These are tiny ridings that in most cases only have at most 8,000 eligible voters and the number of live phone numbers is so small that an IVR poll with the typical 4% response rate would barely get over 100 completes!

We're doing internal IVR polls right now, and I can say this is flat out wrong, but I would agree that 500 would be impossible using IVR. Obviously phone surveys are going to be better quality, but they're very expensive. And you don't need 500 cases to know that these four ridings are going to go Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, riding polls have many issues. News at 11.

Where is Al when you need him?

[Hatman 🍁]

post-debate bump?

[Hatman 🍁]

Not a bad analysis actually, and good to see a bit of geographic detail.

I also think Grenier's recent methodological change (taking into account the past 3 elections) is an improvement on his model.

[Hatman 🍁]

My seat forecast: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/11/newfoundland-and-labrador-election.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Higher than D'Arcy-McGee. Wow.  I suppose both the NDP and PC candidates there were paper candidates from away?

[Hatman 🍁]

Higher than D'Arcy-McGee. Wow.  I suppose both the NDP and PC candidates there were paper candidates from away?

Its worth noting that just two elections ago in Newfoundland it was the PCs who won almost every seat and the reduced the Liberals to 3 seats. in fact some of those ridings that went over 90% Liberal were PC held just a few years ago.

Well, one: Torngat Mountains (Liberal candidate: Danny Dumaresque ). The other two went Liberal in 2007.

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprising considering the $$$ was against confederation.