UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What exactly is Corbyn and his crowd hoping for at this point in time?

Once Labour gets into an all out factional fyck pie the usual political calculations go out the window. What matters is to defeat the the other faction or at least to prevent them from winning. I guess some also have a sort of sub-Menshevik/PCI delusion that Their Time Will Come If Only They Stick At It, but the former mentality is more important.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am skeptical of some of the results.

You shouldn't put too much stock into polling internals and you especially shouldn't put much into YouGov's. But. Corbyn is undeniably slightly less popular than lung cancer at present. Worse: he's widely seen as a joke...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Momentum's contribution to the cause in Copeland was to... er... arrange a screening in the constituency of I, Daniel Blake. Further comment is entirely superfluous.

[Tintrlvr]

Labour will probably perform best in at the next election in places where there is very little 2015 UKIP vote to speak of (the Tories main pool of new voters). For example Labour would probably stand a chance at holding Hampstead and Kilburn (Tory target seat 11) even in a nationwide meltdown for example. Anywhere with large Green votes should deliver reasonable performances too, though unfortunately for them the Green vote is very low in most Con-Lab marginals.

Hampstead and Kilburn may not be the best example. While I agree that it is deeply unlikely to be lost to the Tories, and I am not a particular Lib Dem fantasist, it is in that very peculiar group of seats that will have a lot of both Labour to Lib Dem and Tory to Lib Dem switchers over Brexit, and it does have a history of Lib Dem strength. I could see Labour losing it in that direction before they lose it to the Tories.

[Blair]

Momentum's contribution to the cause in Copeland was to... er... arrange a screening in the constituency of I, Daniel Blake. Further comment is entirely superfluous.

Tbh my thoughts watching that film where 'didn't Labour introduce the sanctions'

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What exactly is Corbyn and his crowd hoping for at this point in time? I mean, it clearly ain't working; and if the polling figures Vileplume posted about the labour brand are correct, then he is doing some serious damage to the party long term.

Obviously, sticking D Milliband in charge isn't going to save things overnight, but Corbyn as at a point where he is even damaging the radical left with his incompetence.

Bring back the eds imo

[henster]

Can another leadership election be called I don't think Corbyn would win another one.

[vileplume]

Labour will probably perform best in at the next election in places where there is very little 2015 UKIP vote to speak of (the Tories main pool of new voters). For example Labour would probably stand a chance at holding Hampstead and Kilburn (Tory target seat 11) even in a nationwide meltdown for example. Anywhere with large Green votes should deliver reasonable performances too, though unfortunately for them the Green vote is very low in most Con-Lab marginals.

Hampstead and Kilburn may not be the best example. While I agree that it is deeply unlikely to be lost to the Tories, and I am not a particular Lib Dem fantasist, it is in that very peculiar group of seats that will have a lot of both Labour to Lib Dem and Tory to Lib Dem switchers over Brexit, and it does have a history of Lib Dem strength. I could see Labour losing it in that direction before they lose it to the Tories.

Thinking the Lib Dems could win Hampstead and Kilburn next time is fantasy thinking. They have zero chance of gaining any seat where they weren't at least at least a moderately close second last time (by-election pickups excepted). Here they only narrowly saved their deposit.

Deeply unlikely is pushing it, if Labour get blown out the water nationwide they'd probably be buried by in Hampstead and Kilburn by the extent of the landslide. My point was merely that the swing from Lab to Con in this kind of seat would be substantially smaller than a seat like North East Derbyshire which has a comparable majority.

Your point about the Tories losing a lot of votes to the Lib Dems is incorrect too. The Lib Dems gains in the national polls has come almost entirely at the expense of Labour. Sure there has probably been some churn with the Lib Dems gaining a handful of Tory voters in places like this while losing some votes to them in more Brexitty areas like Torbay.

If Labour do start to lose lots of remain votes to the Lib Dems (they have only lost a few as yet) then Hampstead and Kilburn would likely go Tory as Labour crash past them in a result like this:

Tory: 40% (-2)
Labour: 36% (-8)
Lib Dem: 20% (+14)
Others: 4%

However remember despite his stance on Brexit Corbyn remains much less unpopular with remain voters than leave voters.

Oh and if the boundary changes go through the new Hampstead and Golders Green would be a Tory seat anyway.

[vileplume]

If the Tories had squeezed into second in Stoke-on-Trent Central in 2015 and the media hadn't blown the whole thing up as Lab vs UKIP the Tories could well have run Labour very dangerously close there too by squeezing UKIP.

Hahahaha. No.

Well the Tories vote share rose without them even trying very hard so it stands to reason that if the contest hadn't been turned into a two horse Lab vs UKIP contest by the media and they'd thrown the kitchen sink at it then they would have done substantially better. Would have they have won, no, but they could have got over 30% given how badly UKIP's campaign went. Dangerously close is probably an exaggeration but they could have got closer than anyone ever thought possible.

[MAINEiac4434]

Can another leadership election be called I don't think Corbyn would win another one.

Amazingly, the left of the party is still behind him.

[Frodo]

A Labour Party high-ranker is predicting that his party will take no more than 150 seats -if that- in the next general election.  That's like less than a quarter of all seats in the House of Commons, is it not?

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[Silent Hunter]

Let's just say I am glad that I have resigned my membership of the party. What a total and utter joke.

[Blair]

Tbh we might as well just have another leadership election after Conference; if Jeremy is still at 24-26% in the polls, and we spend a lot of time working on the bid we might as well go down in a hail of glory.

The problem with the 2016 leadership election was that it appeared a stitch up- the resignations/cutting off voters created the idea it was rigged- Owen Smith's head of data confirmed that as the main reason why they lost. Along with the fact the two 'unity' candidates- Owen Smith and Angela Eagle both had massive flaws+ the lack of the trade union support+ the fact it was rushed.

One interesting thing that is left out- Owen's campaign raised over £1 million which is unheard of in Labour leadership elections (the campaign was handing out rail tickets to phone bank stuff like confetti)

Basically TL:DR; we have a 20% chance of getting rid of him

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm almost starting to wonder if a pre-election primary for a "prime ministerial candidate" couldnt be a way to dilute the Corbynites.

[Blair]

I'm almost starting to wonder if a pre-election primary for a "prime ministerial candidate" couldnt be a way to dilute the Corbynites.

I see the reverse offered- let the PLP elect a leader in the commons, and the party elect the 'Chairman;

[YL]

I'm almost starting to wonder if a pre-election primary for a "prime ministerial candidate" couldnt be a way to dilute the Corbynites.

The registered supporters scheme is already going in that direction, and they seem to be even more pro-Corbyn than the membership.  (Which suggests that they're not representative of Labour voters who aren't members.)

I would agree with Blair (the poster, not the ex-PM) that the restrictions on voting were interpreted as a stitch-up and damaged Smith.  But I also didn't think Smith was a brilliant candidate: you could tell a Corbyn supporter last summer that Corbyn wasn't the candidate to win a General Election, and they wouldn't dispute this but would just say that Smith wasn't either.

So, who would be a likely candidate if Corbyn were to be challenged again?  (As opposed to a normal election after a Corbyn resignation.)

[jaichind]

It seems illogical to me from the LAB PLP point of view to try to oust Corybn.  These by-elections for sure demonstrate that Corybn will lead LAB into certain defeat in 2020.  But they also represent a floor for LAB support under Corybn.  Any attempt to oust Corybn will most likely fail and will only move down that floor.  Only real way out is to accept defeat in 2020, hope it is not  total wipe out, and start afresh once Corybn goes after 2020.  More leadership challenges will only make the level of 2020 defeat even worse and a bigger mountain to claim in the 2025 election.  In case it actually succeeds the new LAB leader would face either a passive pro-Corybn bloc that will turn out in low numbers in 2020 or even worse a pro-Corybn Left splinter party that would take down LAB everywhere. 

[Blair]

I'm almost starting to wonder if a pre-election primary for a "prime ministerial candidate" couldnt be a way to dilute the Corbynites.

The registered supporters scheme is already going in that direction, and they seem to be even more pro-Corbyn than the membership.  (Which suggests that they're not representative of Labour voters who aren't members.)

I would agree with Blair (the poster, not the ex-PM) that the restrictions on voting were interpreted as a stitch-up and damaged Smith.  But I also didn't think Smith was a brilliant candidate: you could tell a Corbyn supporter last summer that Corbyn wasn't the candidate to win a General Election, and they wouldn't dispute this but would just say that Smith wasn't either.

So, who would be a likely candidate if Corbyn were to be challenged again?  (As opposed to a normal election after a Corbyn resignation.)

Clive Lewis is imo the only person who could win- although I know a fair few moderates who would vote for Corbyn, as they see Clive as basically a younger, savvy Corbyn (something that is terrifying for the right of the party)

Other than that it would have to be Keir Starmer, Lisa Nandy or Dan Jarvis. I'd like Chukka or Hillary Benn to have a go- but both are off limits for the membership

[Blair]

Also worth noting we'll have another by-election after Gerald Kaufman passed away- I can't remember the name of the seat but it's a 16,000 Labour majority, but was only 6,000 back in 2010 due to the high lib dem vote.

If Labour lose this seat then we should just give up

[Tintrlvr]

Also worth noting we'll have another by-election after Gerald Kaufman passed away- I can't remember the name of the seat but it's a 16,000 Labour majority, but was only 6,000 back in 2010 due to the high lib dem vote.

If Labour lose this seat then we should just give up

Ha. Manchester Gorton would have been a prime Lib Dem by-election target in 2004! Will be rock-solid Labour, Greens or maybe LDs in a distant second. I think this was one of the Greens' best seats in the country in 2015 (9.8%) and one of the five seats where they came second (though by far the most distant second of the five), so could see them trying to make some effort and getting to 20-25% if they're lucky.

For what it's worth, the seat was about 62% Remain. Maybe the strongest Remain constituency in the North?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a bit of a mixed bag of a constituency; solidly working class and frankly outright poor for the most part, but with a big student population and general university influence. Substantial Asian population though not to the extent as is often assumed. Gorton CLP is a notorious basket case and is currently suspended.

[Blair]

It's a bit of a mixed bag of a constituency; solidly working class and frankly outright poor for the most part, but with a big student population and general university influence. Substantial Asian population though not to the extent as is often assumed. Gorton CLP is a notorious basket case and is currently suspended.

If the CLP is suspended does that allow the NEC to pick the candidate?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the CLP is suspended does that allow the NEC to pick the candidate?

Don't remember 100% but I think so. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.

[MAINEiac4434]

Kaufman's constiuency voted over 60% to remain, so I imagine the Lib Dems will run on an overtly pro-EU platform like they're doing for mayor. We'll probably see Labour hold it with a reduced majority.

[YL]

Also worth noting we'll have another by-election after Gerald Kaufman passed away- I can't remember the name of the seat but it's a 16,000 Labour majority, but was only 6,000 back in 2010 due to the high lib dem vote.

If Labour lose this seat then we should just give up

Ha. Manchester Gorton would have been a prime Lib Dem by-election target in 2004! Will be rock-solid Labour, Greens or maybe LDs in a distant second. I think this was one of the Greens' best seats in the country in 2015 (9.8%) and one of the five seats where they came second (though by far the most distant second of the five), so could see them trying to make some effort and getting to 20-25% if they're lucky.

For what it's worth, the seat was about 62% Remain. Maybe the strongest Remain constituency in the North?

Not even the strongest (in fact not even the second strongest) in Manchester: both Withington (in the mid 70s) and Central were stronger if you believe the Hanretty estimates, and there were also two stronger seats in each of Liverpool, Sheffield and Leeds.