UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Phony Moderate]

Isn't "Jess Mayo" a common reply to the chap behind the counter in Subway?

[Blair]

I've been reading that the Lib-Dems are getting rather excited about the campaign; and whilst not expecting to win are expecting to cut Labour's majority down to 5,000-6,000.

IIRC the by-election is happening on the same day as the locals meaning that hopefully Burnham's campaign, along with the local machine can pull out a good result.

There's been virtually no coverage; and whilst it's completely different I've got a worry this by-election may be similar to Heywood and Middleton in 2014

[Krago]

Manchester Gorton candidates

Kemi ABIDOGUN (Christian Peoples Alliance)
Peter CLIFFORD (Communist League)
The Irrelevant Johnny DISCO (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Phil ECKERSLEY (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
George GALLOWAY (Independent)
David HOPKINS (no ballot paper description)
M. Afzal KHAN (Labour Party)
Sufi Miah KHANDOKER (Independent)
Jess MAYO (Green Party)
Jackie PEARCEY (Liberal Democrats)

Plus:
Shaden JARADAT (The Conservative Party Candidate)

[MAINEiac4434]

Manchester Gorton candidates

Kemi ABIDOGUN (Christian Peoples Alliance)
Peter CLIFFORD (Communist League)
The Irrelevant Johnny DISCO (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Phil ECKERSLEY (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
George GALLOWAY (Independent)
David HOPKINS (no ballot paper description)
M. Afzal KHAN (Labour Party)
Sufi Miah KHANDOKER (Independent)
Jess MAYO (Green Party)
Jackie PEARCEY (Liberal Democrats)

Plus:
Shaden JARADAT (The Conservative Party Candidate)

And Clifford dropped out.

[Phony Moderate]

I've been reading that the Lib-Dems are getting rather excited about the campaign; and whilst not expecting to win are expecting to cut Labour's majority down to 5,000-6,000.

Given the likely level of turnout and Galloway's candidacy, a majority in that ballpark wouldn't be a disaster.

A by-election in Liverpool Walton is likely to be held soon, is it not? The Lib Dems would be more than happy to repeat their performance in the last one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Walton_by-election,_1991

Leigh is another likely one. This is assuming that huge upsets aren't produced in the mayoral elections.

[Blair]

I've been reading that the Lib-Dems are getting rather excited about the campaign; and whilst not expecting to win are expecting to cut Labour's majority down to 5,000-6,000.

Given the likely level of turnout and Galloway's candidacy, a majority in that ballpark wouldn't be a disaster.

A by-election in Liverpool Walton is likely to be held soon, is it not? The Lib Dems would be more than happy to repeat their performance in the last one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Walton_by-election,_1991

Leigh is another likely one. This is assuming that huge upsets aren't produced in the mayoral elections.

If we lost Manchester, or somehow Liverpool then well we'd up a creek without a paddle.

I heard Nutall was going to run in Leigh; in both by-elections it will be of more interest who wins the internal selection as the North-East is a stronghold for Corbyn+both Burnham/Rotheram voted against the motion of no-confidence last summer.

I think Leigh has a Labour majority of 10,000 or so, and Liverpool Walton has one of 27,000

[Silent Hunter]

The Irrelevant Johnny Disco?

[LabourJersey]

Manchester Gorton candidates





Kemi ABIDOGUN (Christian Peoples Alliance)
Peter CLIFFORD (Communist League)
The Irrelevant Johnny DISCO (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Phil ECKERSLEY (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
George GALLOWAY (Independent)
David HOPKINS ((no ballot paper description))
M. Afzal KHAN (Labour Party)
Sufi Miah KHANDOKER (Independent)
Jess MAYO (Green Party)
Jackie PEARCEY (Liberal Democrats)

God I love British politics. A Monster Raving Loony would be a solid step up from Trump at this point.

[Clyde1998]

I've been reading that the Lib-Dems are getting rather excited about the campaign; and whilst not expecting to win are expecting to cut Labour's majority down to 5,000-6,000.

Given the likely level of turnout and Galloway's candidacy, a majority in that ballpark wouldn't be a disaster.

A by-election in Liverpool Walton is likely to be held soon, is it not? The Lib Dems would be more than happy to repeat their performance in the last one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Walton_by-election,_1991

Leigh is another likely one. This is assuming that huge upsets aren't produced in the mayoral elections.

Mayors aren't required to resign as an MP following their election; Livingstone remained an MP until the end of his term - albeit it was only for a year. (Wasn't there a Lib Dem that was a councillor and an MP at the same time too?)

I would expect Labour to hold on to both seats, especially Liverpool Walton, in the event that there are by-elections though.

The Irrelevant Johnny Disco?

Nowhere near as good as Nick the Flying Brick or Sir Oink-A-Lot.

[Krago]

I've been reading that the Lib-Dems are getting rather excited about the campaign; and whilst not expecting to win are expecting to cut Labour's majority down to 5,000-6,000.

Given the likely level of turnout and Galloway's candidacy, a majority in that ballpark wouldn't be a disaster.

A by-election in Liverpool Walton is likely to be held soon, is it not? The Lib Dems would be more than happy to repeat their performance in the last one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Walton_by-election,_1991

Leigh is another likely one. This is assuming that huge upsets aren't produced in the mayoral elections.

Mayors aren't required to resign as an MP following their election; Livingstone remained an MP until the end of his term - albeit it was only for a year. (Wasn't there a Lib Dem that was a councillor and an MP at the same time too?)

I would expect Labour to hold on to both seats, especially Liverpool Walton, in the event that there are by-elections though.

The Irrelevant Johnny Disco?

Nowhere near as good as Nick the Flying Brick or Sir Oink-A-Lot.

Tarquin Fin-tim-lin-bin-whin-bim-lim-bus-stop-F'tang-F'tang-Olé-Biscuitbarrel contested the 1981 Crosby by-election as the Raving Loony candidate.

[Blair]

Times article saying the Lib Dems expect to surge, and do better than they did in Whitney

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There's still the real danger that a lot of activists will be focused on the locals, and I'm not sure how much heavy lifting Burnham's campaign is doing in Gorton. But turnout should be higher than previous by-elections

[Phony Moderate]

No one seems to have a clue if the Manchester Gorton by-election will go ahead or not.

[Clyde1998]

No one seems to have a clue if the Manchester Gorton by-election will go ahead or not.

Sky have just said that it won't go ahead, as Parliament should be dissolved by then.

[Silent Hunter]

Probably need to change the name of this thread then.

[Clyde1998]

Not a UK Parliamentary by-election, but a Scottish Parliamentary by-election (I didn't want to create a separate thread for it).

Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire will be holding a by-election on 8th June, as the sitting MSP is running for the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk seat in the General Election for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives won this seat in 2016 with a 55.2% vote share, compared to 31.8% for the SNP, 7.7% for the Lib Dems and 5.3% for Labour. It seems very unlikely that anyone other than the Tories will win this seat, especially due to the by-election coinciding with the General Election - which will keep turnout high.

[YL]

West Tyrone.

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Not the most interesting constituency for a by-election, it has to be said.  (Then, people thought that about Bradford West.)

[Silent Hunter]

Probably an easy SF hold.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Election in Wales to replace Carl Sergeant as well. Safe Labour hold, obviously.

[mileslunn]

Probably an easy SF hold.

Any chance it might flip.  If people like the Tories it would make sense to go DUP, although considering this is mostly Catholic doubt that is the case.  However if they want to get rid of the Tories sooner wouldn't voting Social Democratic & Labour make more sense as by Sinn Fein members abstaining they essentially give the Tories an extra three seat cushion than they would otherwise have.

[Tintrlvr]

Probably an easy SF hold.

Any chance it might flip.  If people like the Tories it would make sense to go DUP, although considering this is mostly Catholic doubt that is the case.  However if they want to get rid of the Tories sooner wouldn't voting Social Democratic & Labour make more sense as by Sinn Fein members abstaining they essentially give the Tories an extra three seat cushion than they would otherwise have.

SF voters clearly don't care if SF MPs reduce the threshold needed for Westminster majorities enough for it to overcome their vote preferences. Many SF voters would probably secretly prefer Tory governments and a hard Brexit because it makes Irish unification more likely, and, other than Brexit, the government in Westminster has little impact on NI laws and governance. The SDLP has zero organizational presence in this part of NI. I think the best chance of a non-SF winner is if some prominent local Catholic politician decides to run as an independent, which is certainly possible, although no one comes to mind.

[Leftbehind]

Probably an easy SF hold.

Any chance it might flip.  If people like the Tories it would make sense to go DUP, although considering this is mostly Catholic doubt that is the case.  However if they want to get rid of the Tories sooner wouldn't voting Social Democratic & Labour make more sense as by Sinn Fein members abstaining they essentially give the Tories an extra three seat cushion than they would otherwise have.

But that's always been the case. If getting rid of the Tories was a priority they wouldn't have  consolidated behind SF like they did last June.

[EPG]

Probably an easy SF hold.

Any chance it might flip.  If people like the Tories it would make sense to go DUP, although considering this is mostly Catholic doubt that is the case.  However if they want to get rid of the Tories sooner wouldn't voting Social Democratic & Labour make more sense as by Sinn Fein members abstaining they essentially give the Tories an extra three seat cushion than they would otherwise have.

So, bear in mind that West Tyrone is extremely remote from "Tories v Labour" Westminster politics. Geographically, it's on a different island and has a land border with an EU member state. Psychologically, most people are in an ethnic and religious minority. About half of voters in West Tyrone support a party that has never taken seats at Westminster, and overall support is 2:1 for parties that think West Tyrone should be in a different sovereign state than Westminster. Thus, a unionist candidate would need thousands of defections among SF voters to other parties, resulting in a near-perfect split among nationalists.

The divide between SF and the SDLP is long-standing within the nationalist camp and has recently favoured only one side. It's not that the SDLP is particularly weak here, rather think of the SDLP as a party that has had no "mojo" or an unambiguously good election result since the early 2000s, at the latest.

SF abstentionism didn't seem to matter much before 2016. However, it's not as simple as it seems. Brexit and the Conservative-DUP government deal have moved Irish nationalist voters and parties into a more critical stance against unionism, and the loss of all the SDLP's seats left nationalists without any voice at Westminster.

[Gary J]

As predicted, SF easily won the West Tyrone by-election on 3rd May 2018.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-43983518

SF 16,346
DUP 8,390
SDLP 6,254
UUP 2,909
APNI 1,130

Majority 7,956
Turnout 55%

[Silent Hunter]

Reduced majority and less than 50% of the vote though.

[Blair]

Rumours Heidi Alexander may be resigning.

Her seat Lewisham East has a 17k labour majority, and is the one of the last CLPs where the right of the party are firmly in control.