UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite the contrary, it's a great thing.
An administrative presence is one of the best brakes to extinction in minority languages.

It's reminiscent of pope Ratzinger announcing his resignation in Latin.

I don't object to official bilingualism (though it does need to be defined in a way that is less prone to grifting and gatekeeping) and so have no issue with the result also being read out in Welsh. But I do object to whatever mentality meant that the result in a constituency that is - outside of the Upper Swansea Valley, which differs in this respect as in so many others - essentially exclusively Anglophone, was not read out in a language that the overwhelming majority of electors in that constituency can actually understand. It isn't about the language (dw i'n siarad tipyn bach Cymraeg), but about fetishising it as a national symbol. In large parts of the country this is exclusivist.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From a Labour point of view I would be fairly relaxed about this.  Labour supporters voting Lib Dem in seats Labour aren't going to win but the Lib Dems might (and Brecon & Radnorshire, whatever its history back when it included Brynmawr, clearly came into that category) does not seem something that should be high up on the party's list of concerns.  Indeed, from my point of view (which admittedly is more of an anti-Tory one than any sort of tribal Labour one) it is basically a good thing.

Yes, it's a bad performance but a predictably poor one: massive pressure for a tactical squeeze and zero campaign. And, let us be blunt, if you run a paper campaign under circumstances like this, you are tacitly encouraging tactical voting.

[YL]

Quite the contrary, it's a great thing.
An administrative presence is one of the best brakes to extinction in minority languages.

It's reminiscent of pope Ratzinger announcing his resignation in Latin.

I don't object to official bilingualism (though it does need to be defined in a way that is less prone to grifting and gatekeeping) and so have no issue with the result also being read out in Welsh. But I do object to whatever mentality meant that the result in a constituency that is - outside of the Upper Swansea Valley, which differs in this respect as in so many others - essentially exclusively Anglophone, was not read out in a language that the overwhelming majority of electors in that constituency can actually understand. It isn't about the language (dw i'n siarad tipyn bach Cymraeg), but about fetishising it as a national symbol. In large parts of the country this is exclusivist.

Was it deliberate, though?  I wondered whether he was just concentrating so much on getting the Welsh numbers right that he forgot to read them out in English.  Everything in the declaration except for the Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Brexit Party votes (i.e. including the UKIP and Loony votes) was read out in both languages.

Speaking of the Upper Swansea Valley, do you know why that part of Breconshire was included in Powys in 1974 when other areas atypical of the county such as Brynmawr weren't?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Was it deliberate, though?  I wondered whether he was just concentrating so much on getting the Welsh numbers right that he forgot to read them out in English.  Everything in the declaration except for the Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Brexit Party votes (i.e. including the UKIP and Loony votes) was read out in both languages.

I would guess it was accidental and a result of incompetence, yes. But this is what I mean by the use of it as a sort of fetishistic symbol in parts of the public sector especially.

Speaking of the Upper Swansea Valley, do you know why that part of Breconshire was included in Powys in 1974 when other areas atypical of the county such as Brynmawr weren't?

Makes very little sense when it could so easily have been added to West Glamorgan as was, right? I assume the reason was to make sure that the population of Powys was not too small. I don't know what the formal justification was: certainly not service use or transport links!

[adma]

I'm also wondering how much the sluggish LD performance relative to the Tories relates to the more generic, universal rightward swing of rural areas--that is, onetime "Celtic fringe" strongholds such as this might henceforth be less amenable to a LD swing than soft-Lab/Tory-wet locales more actively seeking a "centre voice"...

[CumbrianLefty]

That could be another effect of Brexit polarisation, however. Which may or may not be longer term.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The result was closer than the 2010 election result and the Lib Dem total worse, as it has been in every by-election this parliament.

[Ethelberth]

Quite the contrary, it's a great thing.
An administrative presence is one of the best brakes to extinction in minority languages.

It's reminiscent of pope Ratzinger announcing his resignation in Latin.

I don't object to official bilingualism (though it does need to be defined in a way that is less prone to grifting and gatekeeping) and so have no issue with the result also being read out in Welsh. But I do object to whatever mentality meant that the result in a constituency that is - outside of the Upper Swansea Valley, which differs in this respect as in so many others - essentially exclusively Anglophone, was not read out in a language that the overwhelming majority of electors in that constituency can actually understand. It isn't about the language (dw i'n siarad tipyn bach Cymraeg), but about fetishising it as a national symbol. In large parts of the country this is exclusivist.

You are serving as an second lieutenant on the Welsh Front of Putin's army.  Putin has a large scale attack against using of minority languages in Russia (forbiding the local authorities to teach  non-native speakers the minority language in their own republics). It is good to see that Putin's friends are active in Britain too.

[DaWN]

Quite the contrary, it's a great thing.
An administrative presence is one of the best brakes to extinction in minority languages.

It's reminiscent of pope Ratzinger announcing his resignation in Latin.

I don't object to official bilingualism (though it does need to be defined in a way that is less prone to grifting and gatekeeping) and so have no issue with the result also being read out in Welsh. But I do object to whatever mentality meant that the result in a constituency that is - outside of the Upper Swansea Valley, which differs in this respect as in so many others - essentially exclusively Anglophone, was not read out in a language that the overwhelming majority of electors in that constituency can actually understand. It isn't about the language (dw i'n siarad tipyn bach Cymraeg), but about fetishising it as a national symbol. In large parts of the country this is exclusivist.

You are serving as an second lieutenant on the Welsh Front of Putin's army.  Putin has a large scale attack against using of minority languages in Russia (forbiding the local authorities to teach  non-native speakers the minority language in their own republics). It is good to see that Putin's friends are active in Britain too.

Well that's a new one

[CumbrianLefty]

One hell of a take, indeed.

Some people genuinely have Putin/Russia on the brain

[Silent Hunter]

Yes, can't accuse Al of being a Russian friend. He's got a very distinct bluntness about him that wouldn't endear him to any superiors in the Internet Research Agency for one thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm also wondering how much the sluggish LD performance relative to the Tories relates to the more generic, universal rightward swing of rural areas--that is, onetime "Celtic fringe" strongholds such as this might henceforth be less amenable to a LD swing than soft-Lab/Tory-wet locales more actively seeking a "centre voice"...

Hard to say - one factor here is also that Dodds was a relatively weak candidate. Livsey and Williams were local men embedded in the farming community (though Livsey was an agronomist rather than a farmer), while the unsuccessful LibDem candidate in 2017 is a high profile local government figure and so stopped their vote from further collapse.

[Coldstream]

I'm also wondering how much the sluggish LD performance relative to the Tories relates to the more generic, universal rightward swing of rural areas--that is, onetime "Celtic fringe" strongholds such as this might henceforth be less amenable to a LD swing than soft-Lab/Tory-wet locales more actively seeking a "centre voice"...

Hard to say - one factor here is also that Dodds was a relatively weak candidate. Livsey and Williams were local men embedded in the farming community (though Livsey was an agronomist rather than a farmer), while the unsuccessful LibDem candidate in 2017 is a high profile local government figure and so stopped their vote from further collapse.

Dodds was also a carpet bagger, who’s previously run in Montgomeryshire. Had Kirsty Williams swapped over she’d probably have won by a much bigger margin.

A friend of mine in the constituency (Lib Dem) said that an issue was also the fact that a lot of people in the constituency were irritated about the by election and blamed the Lib Dem’s - there wasn’t much anger at Davies compared to Onasanya, I think people felt he’d been railroaded or some such.

[CumbrianLefty]

A fairly widespread consensus seems to have formed that his offence was a "technicality", not least because he didn't personally profit from it. Though this doesn't really fit with the then Labour MP Denis Macshane actually being jailed back in 2012 for pretty much the same thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A fairly widespread consensus seems to have formed that his offence was a "technicality", not least because he didn't personally profit from it. Though this doesn't really fit with the then Labour MP Denis Macshane actually being jailed back in 2012 for pretty much the same thing.

Closer to the event and the hysteria that surrounded it. But that poor fool was not fairly treated.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Shetland election happened btw:

Lib Dems - 48%
SNP - 32%
Independent (local councilor for the North Isles) - 11%

Everyone else sub-threshold, including an amusingly awful 1% for Labour. The fall in the Lib Dem vote on the face of it was pretty bad - 20% - but they lost their entrenched incumbent, which is always a big deal in these kind of seats and the SNP threw the kitchen sink at this poll.