UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[YL]

Huw Irranca-Davies was appointed Steward of the Manor of Northstead yesterday, and writs were moved for both Ogmore and Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough today, with polling on 5 May.

Candidates announced so far (from Wikipedia):

Ogmore:

Janet Ellard (Lib Dem)
Chris Elmore (Lab)
Abi Thomas (Plaid)

SB&H:

Gill Furniss (Lab) - Sheffield councillor (Southey ward) and Harpham's widow
Christine Gilligan Kubo (Green) - candidate in 2015
Stevie Manion (Yorkshire First)
Shaffaq Mohammed (Lib Dem) - Sheffield councillor (Ecclesall ward) and former leader of the Lib Dem group
Spencer Pitfield (Con) - contested Sheffield Hallam in 2005 and Penistone & Stocksbridge in 2010
Bobby Smith - a "fathers' rights" candidate who stood against Cameron in 2015
Steven Winstone (UKIP) - contested Sheffield South East in 2015

[Phony Moderate]

They're always in safe Labour seats aren't they?

[YL]

Both May by-elections have relatively few candidates.

Sheffield B&H: 7 candidates

Gill Furniss (Lab)
Christine Gilligan Kubo (Green)
Stevie Manion (Yorkshire First)
Shaffaq Mohammed (Lib Dem)
Spencer Pitfield (Con)
Bobby Smith (Give Me Back Elmo)
Steven Winstone (UKIP)

Ogmore: 5 candidates

Glenda Davies (UKIP)
Janet Ellard (Lib Dem)
Christopher Elmore (Lab)
Abi Thomas (Plaid)
Alex Williams (Con)

No OMRLP, Church of the Militant Elvis etc.

[Vega]

Perhaps it's just me, but it seems like a lot of British MPs die. In the last Parliament, 6 did.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's still less than 1% of the total. Actually less die than used to, largely because Westminster is less alcohol-centric these days.

[Cassius]

What seems a little eerie is how the Common death toll over the last few years has been so disproportionately concentrated amongst Labour party MP's.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A curious reflection of reality outside Westminster perhaps: it is well known that on average Labour voters die earlier.

[Silent Hunter]

That's still less than 1% of the total. Actually less die than used to, largely because Westminster is less alcohol-centric these days.

There were 8 deaths in the 2005-10 Parliament and only 4 in the 2001-5 Parliament. A lot more common before that.

[Clyde1998]

They're always in safe Labour seats aren't they?

Both are very safe Labour seats - UKIP require a 39.4% swing to gain the Sheffield seat. Ogmore could throw up something interesting, given that it's on the same day as the Welsh Assembly election though - the Conservatives require a 34.4% swing to gain the Westminster seat and Plaid need a 40.3% swing to gain the equivalent Welsh Assembly seat - unless something cataclysmic happens to Labour in the Welsh election campaign they should retain the seat.

[Clyde1998]

That's still less than 1% of the total. Actually less die than used to, largely because Westminster is less alcohol-centric these days.

There were 8 deaths in the 2005-10 Parliament and only 4 in the 2001-5 Parliament. A lot more common before that.

Could that partially be because MPs are getting younger, on average?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Everyone be prepared to laugh at this by-election for the HoL with an electorate of ... Three people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36084455

[Gary J]

Everyone be prepared to laugh at this by-election for the HoL with an electorate of ... Three people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36084455

See how fast democracy has changed the House of Lords, just as the Earl of Oxford and Asquith's ancestor promised. The preamble to the Parliament Act 1911 included these stirring words.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

.

[joevsimp]

Everyone be prepared to laugh at this by-election for the HoL with an electorate of ... Three people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36084455

Not to mention 7 candidates.  Only one of whom got any votes.  And that he was one of the hereditaries kicked out in 1999 and went on to sit I  the commons for 14 years

[Clyde1998]

Goes to show how ridiculous the House of Lords is.

[Silent Hunter]

They're always in safe Labour seats aren't they?

They are more common in safe seats as an MP in those is far less likely to lose their seat in an election and so can stay there until old age.

[YL]

Looks like these were so dull that no-one posted them overnight.

Sheffield B&H

Lab 14087 (62.5%, up 5.9)
UKIP 4497 (20.0%, down 2.1)
Lib Dem 1385 (6.1%, up 1.6)
Con 1267 (5.6%, down 5.4)
Green 938 (4.2%, down 0.1)
Yorks First 349 (1.5%)
Give me back Elmo 58 (0.2%)

Good to see the UKIP vote down on the GE and a decent Labour increase.  Bad result for the Tories in a no hope area, overtaken by the Lib Dems and not far off losing their deposit.

Ogmore

Lab 12383 (52.6%, down 0.3)
UKIP 3808 (16.2%, up 1.2)
Plaid 3683 (15.7%, up 5.6)
Con 2956 (12.6%, down 3.3)
Lib Dem 702 (3.0%, no change)

Underwhelming for Labour, I feel.  Not much else to say.

[IceAgeComing]

Ogmore might be influenced by the Assembly Elections being on the same day; that might explain the increase in the Plaid vote since they do much better in the Welsh Assembly than they do for Westminster

[YL]

The next by-election will presumably be Tooting, caused by the resignation of Sadiq Khan following his London win.  9 June is being talked about as a date.  Tooting is not a safe seat, but I would hope they would not lose it in a by-election when in opposition.

[Slow Learner]

The next by-election will presumably be Tooting, caused by the resignation of Sadiq Khan following his London win.  9 June is being talked about as a date.  Tooting is not a safe seat, but I would hope they would not lose it in a by-election when in opposition.

[Kingpoleon]

Does anyone know where to find the election results for Tooting/possible candidates?

Is there any possibility of a non-Labour/Tory winning?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any possibility of a non-Labour/Tory winning?

No.

[Zanas]

Ah, civilized countries where politicians resign from Parliament when elected mayors. Is it by law, and is it for every mayor office, or just the largest ones ?

[Vega]

Ah, civilized countries where politicians resign from Parliament when elected mayors. Is it by law, and is it for every mayor office, or just the largest ones ?

It's not a law at all, and Boris Johnson was an MP and Mayor of London from the 2015 election on. Most Mayors in the UK aren't directly elected, either.

[Joe Republic]

Everyone be prepared to laugh at this by-election for the HoL with an electorate of ... Three people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36084455

See how fast democracy has changed the House of Lords, just as the Earl of Oxford and Asquith's ancestor promised. The preamble to the Parliament Act 1911 included these stirring words.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

.

I thought the idea of the Blair govt's HoL reforms was to retain only the hereditary peers who were actually worth the job and get rid of the rest, and then let those remaining 92 die off until there were no hereditaries left?

[Vega]

I thought that once a Hereditary Lord died, then the election would be about selecting a formerly kicked out family of Lords and inviting one of them back into the House? It seems terribly complicated.