UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)
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Author Topic: UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)  (Read 85502 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: October 23, 2015, 03:28:41 PM »
« edited: January 16, 2018, 07:15:00 PM by Çråbçæk2784 »

Following the sad death of Michael Meacher, a by-election will be held in Oldham West.

This will be the first test for Corbyn-led Labour and the staying power of UKIP - it is adjacent to Heywood and Middleton, the seat UKIP heavily targeted in a by-election last time (although Oldham has a significantly larger Asian population.

There is also the possibility of a by-election in Orkney and Shetland, which would be interesting.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2015, 03:38:07 PM »

Some speculation that a Labour 'big name' may go for it - Balls, Alexander, Murphy etc. Probably nothing more than speculation.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2015, 03:45:13 PM »

Some speculation that a Labour 'big name' may go for it - Balls, Alexander, Murphy etc. Probably nothing more than speculation.

If that happens they deserve to lose.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2015, 06:03:34 PM »

Most 'speculation' at this stage (i.e. the late incumbent has been dead for only a few days and his death was not widely expected) = political journalists neatly demonstrating why they deserve every bit of the contempt that sensible people hold them in.
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YL
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2015, 07:09:34 AM »

Re Orkney & Shetland, I'm not a lawyer, but I'd be a little surprised if the courts found against Carmichael.  The argument that what he did was covered by the law in question seems rather contrived.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2015, 10:49:06 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2015, 05:46:01 PM by Harry Hayfield »

First By-Election Changes 1950 - 2010
Sheffield, Neepsend (April 5th 1950): Con -0.34%, Lab -2.00%, Comm +2.34%
Bournemouth East and Christchurch (February 6th 1952): Con -1.45%, Lab -1.71%, Lib -1.49%, Ind +4.66%
Gateshead West (December 7th 1955): Con -1.13%, Lab +1.13%
Brighouse and Spenborough (March 17th 1960): Con +0.80%, Lab -0.80%
Harrow West (March 17th 1960): Con -15.14%, Lab -7.71%, Lib +18.15%, Ind +4.70%
Leyton (January 21st 1965): Con +9.42%, Lab -8.00%, Lib -2.23%, Ind +0.81%
Carmarthen (July 14th 1966): Con -4.62%, Lab -13.17%, Lib -4.92%, Plaid +22.71%
St. Marylebone (October 22nd 1970): Con +1.40%, Lab -2.32%, Lib -2.43%, Ind +0.97%, NF +2.38%
Newham South (May 23rd 1974): Con -1.10%, Lab -3.42%, Lib -2.30%, NF +4.59%, Ind Lab +2.23%
Woolwich West (June 26th 1975): Con +10.19%, Lab -5.03%, Lib -9.00%, Ind +0.12%, NF +2.42%, Ind Con +0.29%, Others +1.01%
Manchester Central (September 27th 1979): Con -10.09%, Lab -0.07%, Lib +8.90%, Green +1.22%, NF -1.83%, Others +1.88%
Penrith and the Border (July 28th 1983): Con -12.81%, Lab -5.84%, Alliance +16.71%, Others +1.94%
Glasgow, Govan (July 14th 1988): Con -4.55%, Lab -27.88%, Lib Dem +4.14%, SDP -12.29%, SNP +38.38%, Green +1.15%, Comm +0.30%, Others +0.75%
Kensington (July 14th 1988): Con -5.92%, Lab +4.89%, Lib Dem +10.77%, Lib +0.13%, SDP -12.21%, Green +0.73%, Others +1.60%
Newbury (May 6th 1993): Con -29.02%, Lab -3.97%, Lib Dem +27.76%, SDP +0.06%, UKIP +1.04%, Green -0.22%, Ind Con +0.46%, Others +3.90%
Uxbridge (July 31st 1997): Con +7.56%, Lab -2.52%, Lib Dem -5.28%, Lib +0.22%, UKIP -2.65%, BNP +0.99%, Others +1.68%
Ipswich (November 22nd 2001): Con -2.10%, Lab -7.97%, Lib Dem +7.24%, UKIP -0.60%, Green +0.93%, Ind +0.31%, Ind Lab -0.56%, Others +2.75%
Cheadle (July 14th 2005): Con +2.01%, Lab -4.16%, Lib Dem +3.27%, UKIP -1.03%, BNP -0.89%, Others +0.80%
Oldham East and Saddleworth (January 13th 2011): Con -13.62%, Lab +10.27%, Lib Dem +0.32%, UKIP +1.95%, Green +1.52%, BNP -1.25%, Others +0.82%
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2015, 03:07:56 PM »

Some speculation that a Labour 'big name' may go for it - Balls, Alexander, Murphy etc. Probably nothing more than speculation.
Alexander and Murphy will probably be on the Labour regional list for the Scottish election, ahead of all of the ones that currently hold seats.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2015, 03:12:37 PM »

Re Orkney & Shetland, I'm not a lawyer, but I'd be a little surprised if the courts found against Carmichael.  The argument that what he did was covered by the law in question seems rather contrived.
There's enough evidence that the case wasn't thrown out; they're back in court on the 9th November. There's a number of issues raised - and if one accusation fails, the entire case collapses - I believe.
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YL
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2015, 10:50:00 AM »

Reports suggest that the writ will be moved for Oldham West & Royton tomorrow, with polling day on 3 December.  Labour will select their candidate on Thursday; one name being mentioned is Jim McMahon, leader of Oldham council.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2015, 10:13:00 AM »

UKIP are a mere 6/1 to gain this seat:


Remember this is the seat where Nick Griffin got 16% of the vote in 2001 (although that election did occur just after the Oldham Riots) - and the BNP never lost their deposit here. Most previous BNP voters would have voted UKIP in May. A low turnout may help UKIP here - as their voters may be more likely to turnout than Labour voters, and Conservative voters may vote tactically to prevent Labour from winning this seat. Additionally, the upcoming referendum may see anti-EU voters move toward UKIP (if they haven't already) - as the others all support the EU. This will be interesting.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2015, 11:30:56 AM »

But the EU referendum has hardly grabbed the publics imagination and UKIPs poll ratings are significantly lower than a year ago.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2015, 11:36:35 AM »

Longlist for Labour selection widely reported as being:

Mohammed Azam (former Oldham councillor)
Jane East (candidate in Colne Valley this year)
Abdul Jabbar (Oldham councillor)
Sabina Khan (Brent councillor)
Jim McMahon (Leader of Oldham council)
Sophie Taylor (Trafford councillor)
Chris Williamson (MP for Derby North 2005-10)
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2015, 11:59:11 AM »

But the EU referendum has hardly grabbed the publics imagination
Not yet; the referendum bill hasn't passed through Parliament - so the main campaigns haven't really begun.

UKIPs poll ratings are significantly lower than a year ago.
UKIP will be stronger in by-elections - as local issues become more important than national issues. People's votes won't affect who becomes the Government in a by-election, also.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2015, 12:58:05 PM »

Well I'm not sure UKIP are that good at zeroing in on random local issues and making a big deal of them, like the old kings of the by-election the LIbDems. UKIP have always been interested in the big national issues of migration and sovereignty, they've never really done a campaign on potholes.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2015, 01:29:07 PM »

Well I'm not sure UKIP are that good at zeroing in on random local issues and making a big deal of them, like the old kings of the by-election the LIbDems. UKIP have always been interested in the big national issues of migration and sovereignty, they've never really done a campaign on potholes.
How about the Rochester and Strood by-election?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2015, 03:22:00 PM »

Labour shortlist is...

Mohammed Azam (former borough councillor, used to be on the NEC, left-winger)
Jane East (candidate for Colne Valley at this years General Election; works for Christian Aid)
Jim McMahon (leader of Oldham Borough Council, is on the NEC and leads the Labour group on the LGA. Right-winger but not really a factionalist)
Chris Williamson (MP for Derby North 2010-15 and a former leader of Derby City Council. Left-winger).

There were rumours that Williamson was withdrawing, but they don't appear to be true.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2015, 03:28:06 PM »

LibDems are running Jane Brophy, who is a longstanding activist in Trafford borough. UKIP are running John Bickley, because apparently no one else is allowed to stand for them in a North West by-election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2015, 07:08:34 PM »

Jim McMahon will be the Labour candidate: it is being reported that he took 59.6% on the first ballot with Azam winning almost all the remaining votes.
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doktorb
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2015, 04:44:30 AM »

Oldham West & Royton candidates (so far):
LAB: Jim McMahon
UKIP: John Bickley
CON: James Daly
LDEM: Jane Brophy
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CrabCake
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« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2015, 04:46:58 AM »

That's a lot of J
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YL
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« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2015, 04:15:04 AM »

Oldham West & Royton candidates (so far):
LAB: Jim McMahon
UKIP: John Bickley
CON: James Daly
LDEM: Jane Brophy

Apparently we now also have Simeon Hart (Green) and "Sir Oink-a-Lot" (that party who are a bit more sensible than UKIPOMRLP).

Nominations close at 4pm today.
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YL
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« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2015, 12:24:22 PM »

... and there are indeed just those six candidates.

Sir Oink A-LOT (Raving Loony)
John BICKLEY (UKIP)
Jane BROPHY (Lib Dem)
James DALY (Con)
Simeon HART (Green)
Jim MCMAHON (Lab)

http://www.oldham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3886/statment_of_persons_nominated_notice_of_poll_and_situation_of_polling_stations_oldham_west_and_royton_constituency
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2015, 09:07:45 AM »

If Labour manage to lose this one, then the problems are indeed serious.
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Cassius
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« Reply #23 on: November 22, 2015, 09:47:19 AM »

Apparently Labour's private polling shows them at something like 32% of the vote, which is of course absolutely woeful (it's 23 points lower than what they got in the general election). I would, however, apply the usual caveats about the general poor quality of constituency polling, and would also point out that we've been here before; last year, in Newark, everyone was fretting that the Tories could lose the seat to UKIP, who of course were fresh from their successes in the European elections. In the end, the Tories held the seat by 20 points. I think media types have a tendency to overrate UKIP's chances in things like this.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #24 on: November 22, 2015, 12:51:04 PM »

Actually what the Torygraph article claims is:

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Trash.
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