UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Phony Moderate]

And The Mail on Sunday is stirring things up by reporting that several frontbenchers are preparing to launch an immediate coup if Oldham is lost.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does hilariously transparent mendacious 'journalism' that is as hilariously transparent and as palpably mendacious as that actually count as stirring things up though?

[Phony Moderate]

Probably not.

Btw, remember the days when questionable rumours about by-elections were based around the Lib Dems', rather than UKIP's, prospects?

[Meeker]

Is there any survey data to back up the claim that Corbyn is hurting Labour? It doesn't look like they're consistently polling any worse than they did in May: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A little bit of background on the constituency, which is a bit more complex than media reports (not that there have been many of these yet) suggest, largely because when journalists see terraced houses they make certain assumptions without ever bothering to check any of those irritating 'facts'...

The constituency covers the western half of Oldham town and some old mill towns that are now functionally Manchester suburbs (the largest are Royton and Chadderton). Oldham is a struggling postindustrial town and this seat includes the most rundown half of it (not that the half in Oldham East & Saddleworth is exactly...) which also happens to be the more multiethnic part; the seat thus has substantial Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities (note they do not form one block of people/the electorate and live in clearly defined areas. And there are still plenty of white people in West Oldham). Perhaps unsurprisingly Oldham itself is very much a traditional Labour town.

The other parts of the seat (which are fairly to very white) are more working class than not but are not unprosperous nor solidly proletarian and until only a few decades ago were strongholds of the very peculiar form of Working Class Toryism that used to be so common in South East Lancashire. There are ethnic and communal tensions in Oldham and surrounding towns (which manifested in race riots in 2001 which were followed by relative electoral success for the BNP). We can be fairly sure that turnout will be rather low and that much too much will be read into the result, whatever it happens to be.

[Silent Hunter]

The thing is, Labour should not even be close in a seat like this, especially in a by-election under a Tory government.

[YL]

The thing is, Labour should not even be close in a seat like this, especially in a by-election under a Tory government.

Well, yes, if it actually is close (or heaven forbid if UKIP actually win) it will be a very poor result, but let's not judge it in advance.

Labour actually did rather well here in May, but so did UKIP.  Given the likely poor turnout and Conservatives tactically voting for UKIP the thing to watch is Labour's vote share, not the majority (unless they actually lose).  For comparison, Labour got 54.8% in May (better than 2001!) and 45.5% in 2010.  The latter might actually be uncomfortably close if the Tories are really squeezed.

[afleitch]

An 120% postal vote turnout will see Labour through. No need to worry

[Clyde1998]

An 120% postal vote turnout will see Labour through. No need to worry

They won't know the turnout, after they lose the voter list.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously the polls have closed and the magical counting process is underway. Very, very early rumours (which may not be exactly accurate) suggest that Labour think they've won but are jittery about turnout/the size of the majority.

[Clyde1998]

Obviously the polls have closed and the magical counting process is underway. Very, very early rumours (which may not be exactly accurate) suggest that Labour think they've won but are jittery about turnout/the size of the majority.

Rumours are UKIP have ran Labour close on the day, but Labour have won the postal vote by a landslide; Labour expected to be around 50%.

[Clyde1998]

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-12-03/farage-ukip-may-lose-election-as-voters-dont-speak-english/
Ukip is likely to lose the Oldham West and Royston by-election because many voters in the area "do not speak English", Nigel Farage has told ITV News.

No comment required for that...

[Clyde1998]

Obviously the polls have closed and the magical counting process is underway. Very, very early rumours (which may not be exactly accurate) suggest that Labour think they've won but are jittery about turnout/the size of the majority.

Rumours are UKIP have ran Labour close on the day, but Labour have won the postal vote by a landslide; Labour expected to be around 50%.

In fact Labour List is suggesting that Labour have won the postal votes by 55% to 30% over UKIP.

Declartion expected around 2am.

[Clyde1998]

@faisalislam: Bigger than expected turnout at #oldhamwest of 40.26%
@faisalislam: Total of 27795 electors in #OldhamWest

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours are UKIP have ran Labour close on the day, but Labour have won the postal vote by a landslide; Labour expected to be around 50%.

Labour's usual by-election strategy (and this is true no matter the ethnic makeup of the seat) is to set a vague target in terms of raw votes and to try to get as many of those as possible locked in via postal ballots.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A new rumour is that Labour may have increased its percentage on the GE.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours of a possible five figure majority...

[Clyde1998]

The Guardian appear to be reporting Labour at 62%, UKIP at 23%. Crushing win if this is true.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Paul Nuttall making a tit of himself on TV right now.

[ObserverIE]

The aptly-named Paul Nuttall of UKIP furiously dog-whistling on the BBC.

This being the party that went around the constituency playing White Christmas in a seat that was the site of race riots and one of the BNP's leading prospects a decade ago.

[ObserverIE]

For what it's worth, the local by-election results over the last few months have shown UKIP's bubble, if not bursting, then slowly deflating.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour hold, 11k majority.

The moment the Labour vote total was read out; really sweet:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Jim McMahon, Labour, 17,332, 62.2% (+7.5%)
John Bickley, UKIP, 6,487, 23.3% (+2.7%)
James Daly, Conservative, 2,596, 9.3% (+9.6%)
Jane Brophy, LibDem, 1,024, 3.7% (+-0%)
Simeon Hart, Green, 249, 0.9% (-1.0%)
Sir Oink A-Lot, OMRLP, 141, 0.5% (n/a)

Lab maj. 10,811 (38.9%)

edit: some confusion over exact figures (as often happens) but all will be clear in the morning. Percentages are correct I believe.

[IceAgeComing]

UKIP seem to be blaming the postal votes for them getting thumped, Farage apparently has evidence of fraud, which he'd be better talking to the electoral commission about rather than moaning about it on twitter.

Nutall showing that he is terrible at the whole dog-whistle thing during the count was funny as well

[YL]

You would hope that some people in the media are feeling a little bit embarrassed.