UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Leftbehind]

You would hope that some people in the media are feeling a little bit embarrassed.

Tomorrow's chip paper, I suspect they were largely just drumming it up in the hopes it'd be a self-fulfilling prophesy (and it's always news to the monolithically middle-class journos that anyone would vote left of Blair).

[IceAgeComing]

The spin in the press seems to be "Labour win in spite of Corbyn" which is to be expected really.  What has the guy got to do in order to be credited with something?

[MaxQue]

The spin in the press seems to be "Labour win in spite of Corbyn" which is to be expected really.  What has the guy got to do in order to be credited with something?

Becoming a Blair clone.

[Cassius]

The spin in the press seems to be "Labour win in spite of Corbyn" which is to be expected really.  What has the guy got to do in order to be credited with something?

Well given that Corbyn was apparently barely featured in the Labour campaign, which seemed to centre around its, admittedly very strong, local candidate (one who seems about as un-Corbyn as it's possible to be in the Labour party for that matter), I'm not entirely sure how this can be attributed to Corbyn in any way.

I basically think Labour's good performance and UKIP fizzling is down to three factors. Firstly, as I've already said, Labour ran a very good campaign in the seat with a good candidate; second, Labour strategised well in attempting, as it always does, to maximise the number of people voting by post, which always seems to favour Labour. Finally, UKIP, on spite of all the bluster surrounding their campaign, were too thinly stretched on the ground, and failed to get out a lot of the people who voted for them back in May. Indeed, I suspect that a lot of UKIP's voters this time round actually voted for the Conservatives in the general election, which would explain the (rather predictable) collapse in the Conservative vote.

[YL]

The official figures (on Oldham Council's website) are

McMahon (Lab) 17,209 (62.1%)
Bickley (UKIP) 6,487 (23.4%)
Daly (Con) 2,596 (9.4%)
Brophy (Lib Dem) 1,024 (3.7%)
Hart (Green) 249 (0.9%)
A-Lot (OMRLP) 141 (0.5%)

Changes: Lab +7.3, UKIP +2.8, Con -9.6, LD no change, Green -1.0

[Silent Hunter]

One can draw too many conclusions from by-elections; remember that Miliband increased the Labour vote share by 10% in his first three.

The big test remains May next year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A little bit of historical context is always good (sorry I didn't get round to this before the vote; for entirely positive reasons I'm busier than I was a few months ago) so here's some. This constituency has existed in some form since the 1950 General Election when the old two member Oldham borough constituency¹ was divided in two and the western part of the town paired with the large mill town/Manchester suburb of Chadderton to form Oldham West. Oldham West's first MP was Leslie Hale, a Leicestershire solicitor (and former Liberal Party member) who had been elected for the double member Oldham constituency in 1945. He held the seat with comfortable and growing majorities - as the ancient working class Tory vote in South East Lancashire began to disintegrate with the decline of the cotton industry and the prosperity it had brought - until he resigned for health reasons in 1968. By that time the Wilson government was extremely unpopular and New Zealand born Conservative Bruce Campbell² won the ensuing by-election on a massive swing. The defeated Labour candidate was Michael Meacher who won the seat back at the 1970 General Election. Boundary changes for the 1983 saw the removal of parts of inner Oldham (to the new Oldham Central & Royton seat; a strange bastard constituency of the kind the Boundary Commission was very keen on drawing that year for reasons known only to themselves) and their replacement by Failsworth (another large mill town-cum-Manchester suburb). The effect of this was to halve Meacher's majority going in to the 1983 General Election which in many other constituencies would have spelled trouble, but the swing in Oldham West turned out to be minuscule. The seat then continued on its merry road towards safety and was redrawn substantially again for the 1997 General Election, losing Failsworth to Ashton-under-Lyne but gaining parts of inner Oldham and the insular mill town of Royton³ from the abolished Oldham Central & Royton. Oldham was hit by race riots in 2001 and this had a grim electoral impact with Nick Griffin polling 16% for the BNP at that year's General Election to near universal horror. This proved to be a flash in the pan and the BNP were never to reach such heights in the area again. One odd consequence of that episode was that Meacher actually polled a higher share of the vote (with a bigger majority) in 2015 than in 2001.

Composition

1950: Oldham (pt: Coldhurst, Hollinwood, Werneth), Chadderton
1974: Oldham (pt: Coldhurst, Hollinwood, Werneth), Chadderton
1983: Oldham (pt: Hollinwood, Werneth), Chadderton, Failsworth
1997: Oldham (pt: Coldhurst, Hollinwood, Werneth), Chadderton, Royton
2010: Oldham (pt: Coldhurst, Hollinwood, Werneth), Chadderton, Royton

Majorities

1950 Lab 10.1, 1951 Lab 8.9, 1955 Lab 9.2, 1959 Lab 10.0, 1964 Lab 17.5, 1966 Lab 22.5, 1968b Con 12.9, 1970 Lab 5.0, 1974Feb Lab 17.0, 1974Oct Lab 23.2, 1979 Lab 17.0
1983 Lab 7.9, 1987 Lab 14.5, 1992 Lab 20.4
1997 Lab 35.4, 2001 Lab 33.5, 2005 Lab 27.8, 2010 Lab 21.8, 2015 Lab 34.2

Member of Parliament

Charles Leslie Hale (Labour) 1950-68, Keith Bruce Campbell (Conservative) 1968-70, Michael Hugh Meacher (Labour) 1970-2015, James 'Jim' Ignatius O'Rourke McMahon (Labour) 2015-

<sub>1. Notable members included William Cobbett (Liberal, 1832-35), Winston Churchill (Conservative then Liberal, 1900-06) and Duff Cooper (Conservative, 1924-29).
2. Who's post-parliamentary career as a Circuit Judge ended in farcical disgrace when he was convicted of smuggling in the 1980s.
3. Which had been part of the bizarrely shaped - an inverted horseshoe over Rochdale basically - Lancashire marginal of Heywood & Royton before 1983. Its MP from 1964 until 1983 was Joel Barnett of Barnett Formula fame.</sub>

[Phony Moderate]

One can draw too many conclusions from by-elections; remember that Miliband increased the Labour vote share by 10% in his first three.

The big test remains May next year.

And the Tories dropped by 11% in Cameron's first by-election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A few census figures...

Ethnicity & Etc.

White 70.1%, Asian 26.5%, Mixed 1.7%, Black 1.4%, Other 0.3%

Looking at the more detailed categories:

White, British 68.1%, Bangladeshi 13.6%, Pakistani 10.4%

No other group is exactly large. Oldham's sizeable Bangladeshi population is very unusual for a Northern industrial town.

Only 0.8% of the population was born in Eastern Europe, Oldham being rather less affected by the latest significant shift to England's ethnic makeup than previous ones.

Religious figures don't really tell you anything that the ethnic ones don't, so I won't bother.

Industry of Employment

Wholesale/Retail/etc 19.8%, Health/Social Work 13.3%, Manufacturing 11.5%, Education 8.9%, Construction 7.5%, Accommodation/Food Services 7.2%, Transport/Storage 6.1%, Public Administration/Defence 5.0%, Administration/Support Services 5.0%, Professional/Scientific/Technical 3.8%, Finance/Insurance 3.1%, Information/Communication 2.1%, Real Estate 1.4%, Utilities 1.1%, Primary Industries 0.1%, Other 3.7%

Wholesale/Retail is notably above average (typical for the Manchester region) as are Manufacturing and Accommodation/Food Services. The smaller private sector service categories are all notably below average. Other categories don't differ significantly from national averages.

Occupation Groups

Managerial Occupations 8.1%, Professional Occupations 11.5%, Associate Professional & Technical Occupations 10.1%, Administrative & Secretarial Occupations 11.7%, Skilled Trades 13.4%, Caring, Leisure & Other Service Occupations 10.4%, Sales & Customer Service Occupations 9.6%, Process, Plant & Machine Operatives 10.5%, Elementary Occupations 14.7%

Skilled Trades, Process Etc Operatives and Elementary Occupations are all notably above average. Managerial and APT are both notably below average; Professional Occupations are significantly below average. I should note that I don't particularly like some of these categories but they are indicative.

NS-SEC

Large Employers & Higher Managerial and Administrative Occupations 1.5%, Higher Professional Occupations 4.1%, Lower Administrative, Managerial and Professional Occupations 15.1%, Intermediate Occupations 12.7%, Small Employers & Own Account Workers 7.7%, Lower Supervisory & Technical Occupations 8.2%, Semi Routine Occupations 16.0%, Routine Occupations 15.7%, Never Worked/Long Term Unemployed 10.4%, Students 8.5%

The first three categories are all significantly below average, Intermediate is about average, Small Employers etc. is below average, Lower Supervisory etc. and Semi Routine are above average, Routine and Never etc. significantly above average, students about average. The NS-SEC thing has its issues but (again) is indicative.

Economic Activity

Economically Active and Employed 55.9% (Full Time Employed 34.8%, Part Time Employed 14.3%, Self Employed 6.8%), Economically Active and Unemployed 5.9%, Economically Active Full Time Students 3.1%, total Economically Active 65.0%
Retired 13.2%, Students 5.6%, Carers 6.6%, Long Term Sick or Disabled 6.2%, Other 3.3%, total Economically Inactive 35.0%

Economic activity rates are lower than the national average (about 70%) and it notable that despite that the percentage in part time employment is actually slightly higher. Caring/Sick rates are also higher ditto unemployment.

Housing

Let's look at tenure first:
 Owned Outright 29.2%, Mortgaged 33.8%, Social Rented 23.8%, Private Rented (Landlord/Letting Agency) 10.0%, Other Categories 3.1%

Both owner-occupier categories are around about average, social renting isn't massive but is quite a bit above average and private renting is below.

And how about the type of house?

Detached 10.0%, Semi Detached 35.2%, Terraced 40.9%, Purpose built Flats 12.8%, Converted Flats 0.4%, Commercial Building 0.6%, Caravan 0.01%

Terraced figure isn't far off twice the national average; Detached is half the national average. Semis a bit above average, Flats below.

Some Other Stuff

The proportion educated to at least Degree level is 16.4%; more than ten percentage points lower than the national average. The proportion with no qualification is 31.8%; this is more than ten percentage points higher.

The percentage of households in which English is not the primary language for anyone is 6.3%. The national average is 4.4%.

15.9% of the population has no passport; this is about average nationally but slightly below for the North West.

77.9% of the population reported themselves to be in good or very good health; this is slightly below the national average.

13.9% of the population is over the age of 65; lower than the national average. 16.4% are between the ages of 18 and 30, which is about average.

No one in the constituency claimed to have a Cornish identity.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ugh there goes my plan to open an Oldham branch of Mebyon Kernow.

[Clyde1998]

On the Northern Isles issue: http://www.scotland-judiciary.org.uk/9/1534/Timothy-Morrison-and-others-v-Alistair-Carmichael-MP-and-Alistair-Buchan

A petition challenging the election of Alistair Carmichael as Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland has been refused after judges ruled it had not been proved beyond reasonable doubt that he had committed an “illegal practice”.

The decision could be appealed, however.

[Clyde1998]

On the Northern Isles issue: http://www.scotland-judiciary.org.uk/9/1534/Timothy-Morrison-and-others-v-Alistair-Carmichael-MP-and-Alistair-Buchan

A petition challenging the election of Alistair Carmichael as Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland has been refused after judges ruled it had not been proved beyond reasonable doubt that he had committed an “illegal practice”.

The decision could be appealed, however.

The petitioners won two of the three points, and lost the third on a technicality:

In the ruling, Lady Paton said Mr Carmichael had told a "blatant lie" in the Channel 4 interview - but that section 106 of the Representation of the People Act did not apply to lies in general.

"It applies only to lies in relation to the personal character or conduct of a candidate made before or during an election for the purpose of affecting that candidate's return," she said.

The judges said they had been left with a "reasonable doubt" about whether the lie could be characterised as a false statement of fact "in relation to [his] personal character or conduct"

Had the judges been without "reasonable doubt", the election result in Orkney and Shetland would've been void and a by-election would've had to have been held.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Failure to prove reasonable doubt is not a technicality.

[Silent Hunter]

Of course it isn't, but we can legally now saw the only Lib Dem MP in Scotland is a proven liar.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour shortlist for Ogmore:

Chris Elmore - a councillor in Barry, member of GMB and the Co-op Party, Labour candidate for the Vale of Glamorgan at the last General Election.

Christine Gwyther - based in Pembrokeshire; former AM for Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire (1999-2007), Minister of Agriculture 1999-2000, Labour candidate for Dyfed-Powys Police Commissioner 2012

Geraint Hopkins - local councillor (Llanharan ward in RCT borough) and currently on the council cabinet in RCT. Member of Unison. One time Deal Or No Deal contestant.

Alex Owen - local councillor (Penprysg ward in Bridgend borough). Member of the FBU.

[YL]

Labour shortlist for Ogmore:

Chris Elmore - a councillor in Barry, member of GMB and the Co-op Party, Labour candidate for the Vale of Glamorgan at the last General Election.

Christine Gwyther - based in Pembrokeshire; former AM for Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire (1999-2007), Minister of Agriculture 1999-2000, Labour candidate for Dyfed-Powys Police Commissioner 2012

Geraint Hopkins - local councillor (Llanharan ward in RCT borough) and currently on the council cabinet in RCT. Member of Unison. One time Deal Or No Deal contestant.

Alex Owen - local councillor (Penprysg ward in Bridgend borough). Member of the FBU.

So all from South Wales and no parachuted Corbyn cronies.  Certain people will be disappointed.

I understand that the expectation is that Irranca-Davies is going to resign from the Commons be appointed Steward of the Manor of Northstead in time for this by-election to happen together with lots of other elections (including the Welsh Assembly election he's standing in) on 5 May.

Ogmore is one of those constituency names you have to be a bit of a geography geek to know where it is: it's named after the River Ogmore/Afon Ogwr and is a bit reminiscent of Strangford in that this place isn't in the constituency, nor is this one, and nor is this castle.

What actually is in the constituency is the valleys in the northern part of Bridgend county borough, north of the town of Bridgend itself, including the upper Ogmore/Ogwr itself, the Garw and the Llynfi.  It also contains a bit of south-western Rhondda-Cynon-Taff.  The largest town is Maesteg, in the Llynfi valley.  As far as I know it's a fairly typical Valleys seat, and certainly votes like one.  The constituency of the same name before 1983 apparently contained Bridgend town, so probably shouldn't be compared with this one.  No doubt Al can give a better profile than I can.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So all from South Wales and no parachuted Corbyn cronies.  Certain people will be disappointed.

Well, three from South Wales and one from Pembrokeshire (which is in the south of Wales but not South Wales). And two that are very local.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes, and the area that is in RCT borough was in the Pontypridd constituency before 1983.* Ogmore is sort of like Rother Valley up your way in that there's been a seat of that name for a long time and the core of the seat has always been much the same but it really can't be considered to be the same seat...

_{*And is why it was rock solid despite said constituency extending all the way down to genepool Tory territory around Cowbridge.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway there will (very regrettably) also be a by-election at Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough due to the death of Harry Harpham at the start of the month.

[YL]

Labour shortlist for Ogmore:

Chris Elmore - a councillor in Barry, member of GMB and the Co-op Party, Labour candidate for the Vale of Glamorgan at the last General Election.

Christine Gwyther - based in Pembrokeshire; former AM for Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire (1999-2007), Minister of Agriculture 1999-2000, Labour candidate for Dyfed-Powys Police Commissioner 2012

Geraint Hopkins - local councillor (Llanharan ward in RCT borough) and currently on the council cabinet in RCT. Member of Unison. One time Deal Or No Deal contestant.

Alex Owen - local councillor (Penprysg ward in Bridgend borough). Member of the FBU.

Elmore won the selection.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So in PLP terms 'Right hold'.

[YL]

I get the impression that Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough is now likely to be on 5 May with all the other elections (including the Ogmore by-election as well).

Labour are selecting at the beginning of March.  Candidates for the Labour nomination include Gill Furniss, who is Harry Harpham's widow and a councillor for Southey ward in the constituency, Oliver Coppard, who cam fairly close to beating Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam [1] in 2015, and Stephen Hutchins, a Sheffield-trained junior doctor and Chesterfield councillor.  EDIT: add Solomon Curtis, who stood in 2015 in Wealden.

The name might suggest that the constituency is a merger of the cores of the old Sheffield Brightside and Sheffield Hillsborough constituencies.  This isn't really the case: it's really an expanded Sheffield Brightside which took on the Hillsborough area (but not the rest of the constituency) when Sheffield Hillsborough was dismembered by the last boundary review [2].  It consists of five wards of Sheffield City Council: Burngreave, Firth Park, Hillsborough, Shiregreen & Brightside, and Southey.

A fairly large part of the consituency (dominating Southey, Firth Park and Shiregreen & Brightside wards) is made up of current or former council housing in so-called "cottage estates", low density, low rise housing built in a period starting as early as 1907 and continuing to just after the Second World War.  Like many large areas of council housing, these areas suffered a lot from the problems of the 1980s and still have high unemployment, high deprivation levels and low educational attainment; they also have low diversity.  Media stereotypes suggest UKIP do well in places like this, and they have indeed had some high vote shares, though they've never won a council seat in the constituency.

To the south of the cottage estates, dominating Burngreave ward and extending into the south and east of Firth Park and Shiregreen & Brightside, is an area which was already largely urbanised by the First World War.  This is something of a classic inner city area, with many of the problems of such areas, including, again, high deprivation levels.  It has a mixture of surviving Victorian housing (ranging from bylaw terraces to some quite big villas) and 1960s/70s council estates built in slum clearance areas.  (One of the 1960s estates has now been cleared itself.)  It's much more ethnically diverse than the cottage estates: when immigrants come to Sheffield they quite often settle in Burngreave and neighbouring areas, as with the recent Roma migration from Slovakia.  Burngreave ward hasn't always been a Labour fortress, but it is at the moment and had the highest Labour share in the city in 2015.  The area also contains one of Sheffield's two large hospitals, the Northern General Hospital in Fir Vale.

Hillsborough, west of the rest of the constituency and best known for its football stadium, is generally a less deprived area with a more socially mixed population.  Much of the housing here is private; there are some council estates, but not on the scale of the areas to the east, and there are some more middle class bits.  Some "young professionals" priced out of areas to the south-west have moved here, attracted by the tram route into the city.  (If it were in the US, it'd be called a "streetcar suburb", and that still fits.)  Hillsborough is the only ward in the constituency to have elected non-Labour councillors on the current ward boundaries, voting Lib Dem in 2007 and 2008; if you go far enough back (and on different ward boundaries) it was relatively likely to vote Tory by Sheffield standards, remaining marginal into the 1970s.

[1] It should be pointed out that if you wanted to find two constituencies in the same city which are as different as possible, Sheffield Hallam and Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough would be a reasonable choice.

[2] The constituency which the largest part of Sheffield Hillsborough ended up in is actually Penistone & Stocksbridge.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour shortlist is...

Gill Furniss (councillor for Southey ward and Harpham's widow), Jayne Dunn (councillor for Broomhill ward, which is in the Broomhill constituency), Jayne Lim (a doctor and Fabian Society member from London).

[YL]

Labour shortlist is...

Gill Furniss (councillor for Southey ward and Harpham's widow), Jayne Dunn (councillor for Broomhill ward, which is in the Broomhill constituency), Jayne Lim (a doctor and Fabian Society member from London).

You mean in the Central constituency o/c.

I'm a bit surprised Oliver Coppard didn't make the list.  However, I thought Furniss was favourite as soon as her candidacy was announced and I think that even more now.

[YL]

In totally surprising and earth-shattering news, Gill Furniss has been selected as the Labour candidate for Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough.

The Lib Dems have selected Ecclesall councillor Shaffaq Mohammed, and the Greens have selected Christine Gilligan Kubo, a lecturer at Sheffield Business School.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In totally surprising and earth-shattering news, Gill Furniss has been selected as the Labour candidate for Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough.

I'm amazed.