UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Gary J]

I thought that once a Hereditary Lord died, then the election would be about selecting a formerly kicked out family of Lords and inviting one of them back into the House? It seems terribly complicated.

More or less. The complication comes because the electorate for House of Lords by-elections is not all the hereditary peers who would have had seats but for the House of Lords Act 1999, but just those hereditary peers currently serving as such in the House of Lords. Some of the hereditary peers represent party groups, so only the other serving peers from that group get to vote. There are just not that many Labour or Liberal Democrat  hereditary peers so you get two or three voters filling vacancies.

The Conservative vacancies or those for which all the hereditary peers in the House vote, have somewhat more substantial electorates.

[Gary J]

Everyone be prepared to laugh at this by-election for the HoL with an electorate of ... Three people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36084455

See how fast democracy has changed the House of Lords, just as the Earl of Oxford and Asquith's ancestor promised. The preamble to the Parliament Act 1911 included these stirring words.

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.

I thought the idea of the Blair govt's HoL reforms was to retain only the hereditary peers who were actually worth the job and get rid of the rest, and then let those remaining 92 die off until there were no hereditaries left?

The Blair government's original idea was to have no hereditary peers in the reformed House of Lords. The "system" which now exists was the product of negotiations between the leader of the Conservative peers (Viscount Cranborne, now the Marquess of Salisbury) and the government. Salisbury was doing a deal without the knowledge of the Leader of the Opposition, which led to some amusing scenes in the House of Commons and to Salisbury being dismissed from his post. The deal however stuck.

Extract from Hansard, 2 December 1998.

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

The next parliamentary by-election will be at Tooting. Resignation of Sadiq Khan due to his election as Mayor of London. 9th of June apparently.

Sadiq Khan (Labour) 47.2
Dan Watkins (Con) 41.9
Philip Ling (LDem) 3.9
Przemek Skwirczynski (UKIP) 2.9

Majority 2,842 (5.3)

The ridic. levels of two-party polarisation is very London isn't it. Not many candidates poll 42% and yet lose.

This used to be a safe seat, but demographic shifts have not been kind to Labour here and its unlikely that it would have been held absent Khan's considerable personal vote.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

oh wow, the 2010 Tory candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway this constituency was created in 1950 and was initially called Wandsworth Central; the name was changed to Tooting in 1974. Boundary changes have been pretty minor. Majorities since then...

1950 Lab 3.5, 1951 Lab 2.0, 1955 Con 2.0, 1959 Con 4.0, 1964 Lab 5.1, 1966 Lab 13.8, 1970 Lab 8.0, 1974F Lab 15.7, 1974O Lab 23.0, 1979 Lab 14.5, 1983 Lab 5.8, 1987 Lab 3.0, 1992 Lab 8.0, 1997 32.6, 2001 Lab 27.7, 2005 Lab 12.9, 2010 Lab 5.0, 2015 Lab 5.3

Members of Parliament

Richard Adams (Labour) 1950-55, Michael Hughes-Young (Con) 1955-64, David Kerr (Labour) 1964-70, Tom Cox (Labour) 1970-2005, Sadiq Khan (Labour) 2005-16

Adams was the incumbent for the abolished seat of Balham & Tooting at the time of the 1950 election having first been elected in 1945. Most of the rest of the seat was in the old Wandsworth Central, the incumbent for which was Ernest Bevin who was first elected (unopposed) at a wartime by-election in 1940.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

oh wow, the 2010 Tory candidate.

Ahahahahaha oh wow

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the Gorgeous Cat just posted on Twitter:

"Hmmm. A parliamentary by-election in Tooting. Interesting…”

:0

Christian Wolmar is also musing about entering.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the Gorgeous Cat just posted on Twitter:

"Hmmm. A parliamentary by-election in Tooting. Interesting…”

:0

Decent chance he decides not to bother after having a quick check of the census stats...

[MaxQue]

The next by-election will presumably be Tooting, caused by the resignation of Sadiq Khan following his London win.  9 June is being talked about as a date.  Tooting is not a safe seat, but I would hope they would not lose it in a by-election when in opposition.

9 June confirmed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Ogmore constituency was created in 1918 and has always been dominated by the coalfield around Maesteg. Major boundary changes in 1983 removed then-rapidly growing Bridgend from the constituency. Its most notable MP was its first, veteran miners leader Vernon Hartshorn (who also served as Postmaster General in the first Labour government and as Lord Privy Seal in the second). As you can see it has a thrilling and dramatic electoral history:

1918 Lab n/c, 1922 Lab 31.7, 1923 Lab n/c, 1924 Lab n/c, 1929 Lab 27.5, 1931b Lab 57.6, 1931 Lab 30.2, 1935 Lab n/c, 1945 Lab 58.4, 1946b Lab 41.2, 1950 Lab 54.3, 1951 Lab 57.1, 1955 Lab 51.1, 1959 Lab 49.4, 1964 Lab 51.1, 1966 Lab 56.7, 1970 Lab 46.3, 1974F Lab 32.7, 1974O Lab 43.4, 1979 Lab 28.8, 1983 Lab 43.9, 1987 Lab 54.3, 1992 Lab 56.6, 1997 Lab 64.2, 2001 Lab 48.0, 2002b Lab 31.1, 2005 Lab 45.3, 2010 Lab 38.2, 2015 Lab 37.0, 2016b Lab 36.4

Members of Parliament:

Vernon Hartshorn (Lab) 1918-31, Ted Williams (Lab) 1931b-46, John Evans (Lab) 1946b-50, Walter Padley (Lab) 1950-79, Ray Powell (Lab) 1979-2001, Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab) 2002(b)-2016, Chris Elmore (Lab) 2016-present

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough is in fact the old Sheffield Brightside with the district of Hillsborough (a name with a long parliamentary history) tacked on along with parts of the 1983-2010 edition of Sheffield Central. Brightside was created in 1885, significantly expanded in 1950 (to take in interwar housing estates previously in Penistone) and expanded a little bit further in 1983. Its most notable MP was David Blunkett, with other names of interest including Tudor Walters (who chaired the committee that produced the report that led to the Great Broken Liberal Promise of Homes Fit For Heroes) and Joan Maynard (aka Stalin's Granny).

1885 Lib 15.4, 1886b Lib n/c, 1886 Lib 11.4, 1892 Lib 14.8, 1892b Lib n/c, 1895 Lib n/c, 1897b LibLab 2.2, 1900 Con 10.6, 1906 Lib 10.2, 1910J Lib 17.9, 1910D Lib 19.2, 1918 CoLib 28.4 1922 Lab 20.8, 1923 Lab 19.2, 1924 Lab 10.8, 1929 Lab 28.4, 1930b Lab 11.7, 1931 Con 12.5, 1935 Lab 17.0, 1945 Lab 35.4, 1950 Lab 41.5, 1951 Lab 42.4, 1955 Lab 37.3, 1959 Lab 38.2, 1964 Lab 44.9, 1966 Lab 54.6, 1968b Lab 20.4, 1970 Lab 46.3, 1974F Lab 51.4, 1974O Lab 21.7, 1979 Lab 47.2, 1983 Lab 34.5, 1987 Lab 54.2, 1992 Lab 53.7, 1997 Lab 58.9, 2001 Lab 66.7, 2005 Lab 55.4, 2010 Lab 35.0, 2015 Lab 34.6, 2016b Lab 42.5

Members of Parliament:

A.J. Mundella (Lib) 1885-97, Fred Maddison (Lib/Lab), 1897b-1900, James Hope 1900-06, Tudor Walters (Lib) 1906-22, Arthur Ponsonby (Lab) 1922-30, Fred Marshall (Lab) 1930b-31, Hamer Russell (Con) 1931-35, Fred Marshall (Lab) 1935-50, Richard Winterbottom (Lab) 1950-68, Edward Griffiths (Lab) 1968-74O, Joan Maynard (Lab) 1974(O)-87, David Blunkett (Lab) 1987-2015, Harry Harpham (Lab) 2015-16, Gill Furniss (Lab) 2016b-

Griffiths was deselected in 1974 and stood as an Independent Labour candidate at the second election of that year, finishing second.

[MaxQue]

The next by-election will presumably be Tooting, caused by the resignation of Sadiq Khan following his London win.  9 June is being talked about as a date.  Tooting is not a safe seat, but I would hope they would not lose it in a by-election when in opposition.

9 June confirmed.

Despite the date of emission of the writ allowing an election on 9 June, the council called it for the 16 June.

[YL]

Candidates for Tooting (from here[/url):

Rosena Allin-Khan (Lab) [1]
Des Coke (Christian People's Alliance)
Alexander Glassbrook (Lib Dem)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Zirwa Javaid (Independent) [2]
Elizabeth Jones (UKIP)
Ankit Love (One Love Party) [3]
Akbar Malik (Immigrants Political Party) [4]
Graham Moore (Eng Dem)
Esther Obiri-Darko (Green)
Zia Samadani (Independent) [5]
Smiley Smillie (Independent)
Bobby Smith (Give me back Elmo) [6]
Dan Watkins (Con) [7]

[1] Junior doctor.
[2] A quick Google finds out essentially nothing.
[3] Came last in the mayoral election.  Party has [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Love_Party]a Wikipedia page.
[4] New party who seem to be pretty much what you'd expect from the name.
[5] Someone of this name has an inactive Twitter feed and is described there as "Chairperson of British Economic Forum & Chairperson of Taleem Charity".
[6] Smith fought Witney at the General Election and the Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough by-election.
[7] Fought the seat at the General Election.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Polling day today in Tooting. The mood has been very muted for obvious reasons.

(Let's not talk about the tragic events of today till tomorrow)

[IceAgeComing]

42% turnout; no one is really expecting a shocking result.

[IceAgeComing]

there's a recount; its because of a discrepancy in the vote count rather than because the result is particularly close.  Its probably a difference between the number of ballot papers counted and the number of ballot papers verified as being cast, its surprising that it doesn't happen more often.

Sky are saying that Labour has won; nothing more than that.

[IceAgeComing]

Result just declared: Labour hold, majority about 6,000.  Majority more than doubled on a reduced turnout indicates a big swing to Labour; although I don't know whether its particularly representative of anything considering the timing of the thing.  UKIP only got 500 votes, behind the Lib Dems and I think the Greens: lost track with the large number of candidates.

e: just found the full figures:

Labour: 17894 (55.9%, +8.7%)
Conservative: 11537 (36.1%, -5.8%)
Green: 830 (2.6%, -2.5%)
Lib Dems: 820 (2.6%, -1.3%)
UKIP: 507 (1.6%, -1.3%)
Others: 411 (1.3%, +1.3%)

I've not separated out the other candidates; they all got small vote shares and there were loads of them, and I couldn't be bothered.  7.8% swing from the Conservatives to Labour; Labour is the only party to gain in vote share with everyone else falling back.  Not a good result for the Greens; their vote share was halved and they lost their deposit which might well be a Corbyn thing.  Still managed to finish in third though!

[Vosem]

Tooting gave UKIP 5th place (behind the Greens and the Lib Dems) in the general election too. In fact, the order of the top five did not change at this election (even if the Labour margin over the Tories has quadrupled from 47-42 to 56-36).

[IceAgeComing]

I hadn't realised that the Greens had done that well last year: normally I'd look up the previous election result but I've had other things on my mind today...

[IceAgeComing]

Sorry for yet another post; but according to the Guardian live blog the Tories will not contest the Batley and Spen by-election.  As far as I'm aware its the first Great British by-election the Tories won't have contested since the 1963 Bristol South East by-election; which was the one where Tony Benn returned to the House of Commons after disclaiming his peerage; with the Tory MP who was declared elected after the previous by-election despite losing by 11,000 votes resigning to let him back in.

[DL]

I wonder if the Britain First party will run a candidate in Batley and Spen?

[IceAgeComing]

UKIP and the Lib Dems also aren't contesting it; so it looks like it might be Labour, maybe the Greens; and a bunch of extremists and weird candidates.  One of the far-right parties will surely stand and may well have a shot at retaining their deposit if UKIP aren't standing, certainly if there isn't another right-wing option.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I thought that once a Hereditary Lord died, then the election would be about selecting a formerly kicked out family of Lords and inviting one of them back into the House? It seems terribly complicated.

More or less. The complication comes because the electorate for House of Lords by-elections is not all the hereditary peers who would have had seats but for the House of Lords Act 1999, but just those hereditary peers currently serving as such in the House of Lords. Some of the hereditary peers represent party groups, so only the other serving peers from that group get to vote. There are just not that many Labour or Liberal Democrat  hereditary peers so you get two or three voters filling vacancies.

The Conservative vacancies or those for which all the hereditary peers in the House vote, have somewhat more substantial electorates.

Indeed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By-elections_to_the_House_of_Lords

Interesting how Labour hereditary peers by-election of October 2003 saw only 3 votes casted:

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Conservative and Crossbench by-elections usually takes several counts (and of those few elected by the whole House).

Btw, I'm surprised that only those hereditary that are already sitting can vote in by-elections. The logical course of action would be all hereditary peers, in or outside the House, being able to cast votes.

[YL]

Regrettably, but not particularly surprisingly, "Liberty GB", an Islamophobic right-wing splinter party, have announced that they intend to buck the trend set by the Tories and contest Batley & Spen.

(The Greens, UKIP and the Lib Dems have all followed the Tories and said they won't, AIUI.)

[IceAgeComing]

Yeah, as of right now it's going to be the oddest two sided contest since those by-elections that the BUF stood in right at the start of the war.  Although I imagine that we'll see other candidates stand; I heard rumblings that the English Democrats might stand someone and that'll split the far right vote; I imagine that we'll get a fair few joke candidates as well.  All depends when they drop the writ; you'd have to imagine that they wouldn't hang around especially if there's no serious opposition to Labour.