UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[doktorb]

The English Democrats are now intending to stand.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Witney MP will resign, citing wish to spend more time with his pigs.

[Phony Moderate]

Historically speaking, 15 years is a pathetically short period of parliamentary service for a British prime minister.

[joevsimp]

I guess the writs for this and for Batley and Spen won't bee dropped until after conference season is over with.  No poll before mid November i don't think

[DL]

I'm surprised there hasnt been a byelection yet in Batley and Spen...I'm so used to byelections in the UK being called almost instantly as soon as there is a vacancy...having a seat sit vacant for so many months is so.....Canadian!

[Slow Learner]

Witney MP will resign, citing wish to spend more time with his pigs.

Who?

[Phony Moderate]

Those farmyard animals that give us bacon I believe.

[joevsimp]

For those (un)lucky enough to miss Piggate, David ''call me Dave'' Cameron has decided to follow Blair's lead and not sit around on the backbenches being a distraction for his successor.

Despite what I said above, both byelections have now been scheduled for October 20th. Witney is also the first tory held seat to call vacant since the election so we get to see how much (if any) of a chunk Labour manage to take out of Cam's stonking  43% majority and who they select (my net is some county councillor of other from Oxford

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Batley & Spen to be on the 20th of October.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour shortlist of two: Tracy Brabin (who was appeared in and written for various television soaps and who is from Batley originally) and Jane Thomas (candidate in Keighley in 2010).

[Phony Moderate]

Tracy Brabin (who was appeared in and written for various television soaps and who is from Batley originally)

A poor man's Glenda Jackson then?

[joevsimp]

We have our slate for Witney apparently:

Con: Robert Courts, barrister and district cllr
Lab: Duncan Enright, their candate in 2015. Also a district cllr
LibDem: Liz Letterman. District cllr and businesswoman
Green: Larry Sanders, retired lecturer, former county cllr and elder brother of a certain well-known US Senator.
EngDem: Winston McKenzie. Former boxer, publican, Ukip candate in Croydon North and Tottenham and Celeb Big Brother contestant

[Slow Learner]

Remember when Dan Hannan was going to stand?

[IceAgeComing]

no UKIP candidate in either by-election?

[joevsimp]

no UKIP candidate in either by-election?

Nominations close 4pm on Monday, but I wouldn't be surprised if they sat it out if they've not nominated by this point, unless they plan to parachute someone in at the last minute

[Slow Learner]

Brabin is the candidate in Batley and Spen.

[YL]

14 candidates for Witney

Emilia Arno (One Love Party)
Dickie Bird (UKIP) [1]
David Bishop (Bus Pass Elvis)
Robert Courts (Con)
Duncan Enright (Lab)
Mad Hatter (OMRLP)
Lord Toby Jug (Eccentric Party)
Adam Knight (Independent)
Elizabeth Leffman (Lib Dem)
Winston McKenzie (Eng Dem)
Helen Salisbury (National Health Action)
Larry Sanders (Green)
Daniel Skidmore (Independent)
Nicholas Ward (Independent) [2]

[1] Not the cricket umpire.
[2] Anti-HS2

Eccentric Party vs. OMRLP vs. Bus Pass Elvis...  vs. Winston McKenzie

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is a fairly high chance of a Glasgow East by-election...

[Slow Learner]

There is a fairly high chance of a Glasgow East by-election...

This is obviously a conspiracy from the red Toryite-Blairite-Henry Jackson Societyites.

#RiggedBallots
#YesWasTheWinner

[YL]

10 candidates for Batley & Spen

Corbyn Anti (By Election Protest) [1]
Tracy Brabin (Lab)
Jack Buckby (No to terrorism, yes to Britain) [2]
Richard Edmonds (NF)
David Furness (BNP)
Therese Hirst (Eng Dem)
Waqas Ali Khan (Ind) [3]
Garry Kitchin (Ind)
Ankit Love (One Love)
Henry Mayhew (Independent)

[1] Registered description of something called "English Independence".  Yes, the candidate is using that name.
[2] Registered description of Liberty GB
[3] UKIP member and 2015 candidate in Shipley

You'd have thought that the fascists might be a bit embarrassed by this by-election, but apparently not.

[IceAgeComing]

I suppose splitting the fash vote is only a good thing, it makes it more likely that they all lose their deposits.

e: A potential Glasgow East by-election would most likely be won by the SNP unless things drastically change in the run up; I can't see the McGarry fraud thing changing much.  Labour getting close would be a good thing for them though since it'd suggest that they might gain back some central belt seats in the future; especially since there aren't that many tactical votes flying around in that bit of Glasgow, and even the few Tory and UKIP (they finished fourth ahead of the Greens and the Lib Dems, although the only got 1,000 votes and lost their deposit) voters that are around would probably be less willing to vote tactically for Labour in a Westminster election than they would in a Holyrood election.  I can't see a 10,000+ SNP majority in Glasgow getting wiped out though, especially with Scottish Labour being the only realistic challengers.

[joevsimp]

Labour would need a 13% swing to take Glasgow East, so within the range of possibilities (still a long shot though, for the record they would need a swing of 23% in Witney)

[IceAgeComing]

I honestly don't see them actually gaining any votes though: there's been little to no shift in the polls since 2015, and any shift has been negative for both the SNP and Labour and towards the Conservatives (not that the latter are at all relevant anywhere in Glasgow).  I mean even a modest swing towards them (for by-election standards, no higher than 5%) would be good for them and probably the best I could see them doing unless Labour pick their best candidate and the SNP pick Hitler, or unless McGarry decides to do something dumb like resign and stand in the by-election as an independent - she wouldn't win or do particularly well, but it'd split the SNP vote.

[joevsimp]

No,  I don't think so either reallty. Besides, do Labour actually have any heavy hitters who would be willing to take on what looks like a fool's errand?

I wonder if (assuming Scotland stays in the Union for now) that being a Scottish MP will end up being seen the same way that MEPs are now, either usefull training for the main show, an opertunity for impotent grandstanding or a dead end for relative nobodies

[doktorb]

No,  I don't think so either reallty. Besides, do Labour actually have any heavy hitters who would be willing to take on what looks like a fool's errand?

I wonder if (assuming Scotland stays in the Union for now) that being a Scottish MP will end up being seen the same way that MEPs are now, either usefull training for the main show, an opertunity for impotent grandstanding or a dead end for relative nobodies

For some New Labour MPs that's exactly what it was!