UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Hatman 🍁]

10 candidates for Batley & Spen

Corbyn Anti (By Election Protest) [1]
Tracy Brabin (Lab)
Jack Buckby (No to terrorism, yes to Britain) [2]
Richard Edmonds (NF)
David Furness (BNP)
Therese Hirst (Eng Dem)
Waqas Ali Khan (Ind) [3]
Garry Kitchin (Ind)
Ankit Love (One Love)
Henry Mayhew (Independent)

[1] Registered description of something called "English Independence".  Yes, the candidate is using that name.
[2] Registered description of Liberty GB
[3] UKIP member and 2015 candidate in Shipley

You'd have thought that the fascists might be a bit embarrassed by this by-election, but apparently not.

So, who will in 2nd place?

[Clyde1998]

I honestly don't see them actually gaining any votes though: there's been little to no shift in the polls since 2015, and any shift has been negative for both the SNP and Labour and towards the Conservatives (not that the latter are at all relevant anywhere in Glasgow).  I mean even a modest swing towards them (for by-election standards, no higher than 5%) would be good for them and probably the best I could see them doing unless Labour pick their best candidate and the SNP pick Hitler, or unless McGarry decides to do something dumb like resign and stand in the by-election as an independent - she wouldn't win or do particularly well, but it'd split the SNP vote.

The most recent poll for Westminster in Scotland (9-15 Sep; Panelbase) shows SNP 47% (-3 on 2015); Con 24% (+9); Lab 16% (-8); Lib 5% (-3); UKIP 4% (+2); Grn 3% (+2).

Extrapolating the nation results for the Glasgow East, my calculations give me:
SNP 52.4 (-4.5)
Lab 24.3 (-8.1)
Con 13.3 (+7.3)
UKIP 4.4 (+1.8)
Lib 3.7 (+3.0)
Grn 2.0 (+0.9)
Oth 0.0 (-0.5)

Basically, the SNP would have a large lead in that seat, should a by-election occur, at the beginning of the campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Batley & Spen covers a dense swathe of Yorkshire wool towns and was created in 1983 from parts of the abolished constituencies of Batley & Morley and Brighouse & Spenborough. Batley & Morley was a safe Labour seat while Brighouse & Spenborough was ever marginal. Although much of the Spen Valley is now middle class commuterland, the constituency is still basically an industrial and working class one and has the feel of a reliable Labour seat and given that the largest town in it is Batley it was expected to be one when first drawn. Yet the first time the constituency was contested was 1983 and the new seat was lost to the Tories by less than a thousand votes. The victorious Conservative was Elizabeth Peacock who had a populist appeal and soon built up enough of a personal vote to surprise everyone by holding on in 1987 and 1992 and even managed to keep the swing in 1997 down to a comparatively low 7.6%. She was, however, defeated nevertheless and a final tilt at the seat in 2001 was not successful. Her successor was low profile but locally popular Labour left-winger Mike Wood who held on securely enough even in 2010. He stood down in 2015 and was replaced by Jo Cox whose assassination by a far right extremist is the reason for this vacancy. This part of Yorkshire saw substantial immigration from the Subcontinent in the postwar decades due to a shortage of operatives in the textile industry and has had an issue with various forms of far right political activity since the 1970s. Due to the unusual and tragic circumstances of the by-election the only mainstream political party to field a candidate is the Labour Party. The electoral history of Batley & Spen runs as follows:

1983 Con 1.6, 1987, Con 2.3, 1992 Con 2.3, 1997 Lab 13.1, 2001 Lab 13.2, 2005 Lab 14.8, 2010 Lab 8.5, 2015 Lab 12.0

Members of Parliament:

Elizabeth Peacock (Con) 1983-97, Mike Wood (Lab) 1997-2015, Jo Cox (Lab) 2015-16.

Batley & Morley

1918 CoLib 5.8, 1922 Lab 17.0, 1923 Lab 5.2, 1924 Lib 1.2, 1929 Lab 16.6, 1931 Con 22.4, 1935 Lab 7.2, 1939b Lab 10.8, 1945 Lab 29.7, 1949b Lab 18.6, 1950 Lab 19.9, 1951 Lab 19.4, 1955 Lab 20.4, 1959 Lab 16.7, 1964 Lab 22.3, 1966 Lab 27.2, 1970 Lab 15.9, 1974F Lab 14.7, 1974O Lab 19.2, 1979 Lab 11.4

Members of Parliament:

Gerald France (CoLib) 1918-22, Ben Turner (Lab) 1922-24, Walter Forrest (Lib) 1924-29, Ben Turner (Lab) 1929-31, Wilfrid Wills (Con) 1931-35, Willie Brook (Lab) 1935-39, Hubert Beaumont (Lab) 1939-48, Alfred Broughton (Lab) 1949-79, Ken Woolmer (Lab) 1979-83.

Brighouse & Spen

1950 Lab 4.4, 1950b Lab 0.9, 1951 Lab 4.5, 1955 Lab 3.6, 1959 Lab 0.1, 1960b Con* 1.5, 1964 Lab 1.9, 1966 Lab 9.6, 1970 Con 0.1, 1974F Lab 2.9, 1974O Lab 4.3, 1979 Con 3.1

Members of Parliament:

Frederick Cobb (Lab) 1950, John Edwards (Lab) 1950-59, Michael Shaw Con* 1960-64, Colin Jackson (Lab) 1964-70, Wilfred Proudfoot (Con) 1970-74, Colin Jackson (Lab) 1974-79, Gary Waller (Con) 1979-83.

_{*Stood as a National Liberal.}

[YL]

The electoral history of Batley & Spen runs as follows:

1983 Con 1.6, 1987, Con 2.3, 1992 Con 2.3, 1997 Lab 13.1, 2001 Lab 13.2, 2005 Lab 14.8, 2010 Lab 8.5, 2015 Lab 12.0

I think it reflects Elizabeth Peacock's personal vote more than any real change in the constituency but the different between those two numbers is strikingly small.

I realise the title for most disgusting leaflet delivered in a UK by-election is a heavily contested one but the one talked about in this article is a contender.

[Silent Hunter]

Yes, that's pretty dog-whistle, isn't it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...

[Phony Moderate]

Probably even lower than Phil Woolas actually.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Witney has more in common with Batley & Spen than you might at first assume; it too was created for the 1983 election and its larger towns also grew up around the textile industry. But the Oxfordshire woollen industry was a rather older and smaller scale affair than that of Yorkshire and substantial industrial communities were never created, even if towns like Chipping Norton and Witney are less well-heeled than often presumed. And they aren't really dominant anyway; the villages and the various new Oxford suburbs are extremely prosperous and dictate the political and social tone of what could surely ever only be a Tory stronghold. The seat was created from parts of Banbury (and between 1918 and 1974 all of it had been part of Banbury) and abolished Mid Oxfordshire and it was Mid Oxon's first and only MP (Douglas Hurd) that became also Witney's first. It did briefly have a Labour MP when, unhappy with the socially conservative tone of William Hague's leadership, Shaun Woodward crossed the floor in 1999 (and rather sensibly opted to be parachuted into the Labour stronghold of St Helen's South in 2001 rather than try to defend Witney). He was succeeded by David Cameron whose firm belief that it is not up to him to 'do the hard sh!t' has triggered this by-election.

Witney's electoral history so far has been less than thrilling:

1983 Con 24.6, 1987 Con 31.7, 1992 Con 35.1, 1997 Con 12.4, 2001 Con 16.2, 2005 Con 26.3, 2010 Con 39.4, 2015 Con 43.0

Members of Parliament:

Douglas Hurd (Con) 1983-97, Shaun Woodward (Con, def. Lab) 1997-2001, David Cameron (Con) 2001-16

Mid Oxfordshire

1974F Con 16.3, 1974O Con 16.0, 1979 Con 30.9

Members of Parliament:

Douglas Hurd (Con) 1974-83

Banbury (1918-83)

1918 CoLib n/c, 1922b CoLib n/c, 1922 Con 17.1, 1923 Con 0.8*, 1924 Con 21.9, 1929 Con 7.3, 1931 Con n/c, 1935 Con 31.4, 1945 Con 4.0, 1950 Con 3.9, 1951 Con 7.2, 1955 Con 8.7, 1959 Con 12.9, 1964 Con 8.8, 1966 Con 7.2, 1970 Con 16.8, 1974F Con 12.4, 1974O Con 12.1, 1979 Con 25.5

Members of Parliament:

Rhys Rhys-Williams (CoLib) 1918-22, James Edmonson (Con) 1922-45, Douglas Dodds-Parker (Con) 1945-59, Neil Marten 1959-83

_{*The Liberal candidate who lost out by a mere 219 votes in this election was none other than C.B. Fry!}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You know it's lucky for Labour that the Tories opted out of contesting Batley & Spen because right now there would be half a chance we might lose it.

[Phony Moderate]

Today's the day. Polls of course close at 10PM our time and then a load of dubious Twitter rumours (now something of a tradition for by-election nights) will follow.

If the Lib Dems pull Witney off then please, for the sake of your organs, don't take a swig every time you hear/read the word 'Orpington' over the next 24 hours.

[AuH2O Republican]

Today's the day. Polls of course close at 10PM our time and then a load of dubious Twitter rumours (now something of a tradition for by-election nights) will follow.

If the Lib Dems pull Witney off then please, for the sake of your organs, don't take a swig every time you hear/read the word 'Orpington' over the next 24 hours.

This can't be for real, can it??

[Blair]

I really can't see the Lib Dems doing it; everyone keeps mentioning that Whitney voted remain but so did many other tory seats of a similar nature (e.g Richmond Park) and I don't think there's a clear connection between voting Remain=Lib Dems, in the same way Leave= UKIP doesnt always happen

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour hold Batley & Spen with 86% of the vote on a turnout of like 25%. None of the assorted Nazis, Cranks and Weirdos held their deposits.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tories hold Witney comfortably; 15pt majority or so over LibDem. Labour vote only down to 15% so no sign whatsoever of tactical squeeze.

[Ronnie]

Sorry if I'm posting this in the wrong place, but it seems like the bottom might be falling out for Labour, at least for the 2020 election:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-mays-tories-open-up-18-point-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-a7370246.html

[Boston Bread]

Larry did worse than the Greenie in 2015? Sad!

[Vosem]

Nice on the Lib Dems recovering from 7% to 30%, though of course what happens in by-elections isn't necessarily indicative of the general election or even a general trend.

[joevsimp]

Larry did worse than the Greenie in 2015? Sad!

We're always the first to get squeezed out in something like this -  despite getting our first seat, our vote dropped 2010 in all but five constituencies (one of which oddly was Witney) thanks to "Cleggmania" (and an unexpected swing to Labour in London)

We have a lack of ground game for a byelection campaign, which at general elections is compensated for to an extent through media exposure, resurgent and apparently detoxified Lib Dems taking back some of the anti-coalition vote from last year and, dare I say it, a slightly gimmicky candidate who's USP maybe didn't go down as well as we'd hoped in the  villages and market towns.

still, good result for the Lib Dems, keeps pressure on both main parties, and would probably have been a lib dem gain if fought under AV (we can dream can't we)

also, always good to see the Loonies beat a (semi-) serious party

[IceAgeComing]

Assuming you're talking about the English Democrats; McKenzie lost to both Loony parties (the Eccentric party is a splitter party) alongwith the oh-so-serious Bus Pass Elvis Party.  Its always good when things like that happen!

[Phony Moderate]

Sorry if I'm posting this in the wrong place, but it seems like the bottom might be falling out for Labour, at least for the 2020 election:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-mays-tories-open-up-18-point-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-a7370246.html

Labour's share of the vote is actually about the same as it got in 2015 - the large Tory lead is mostly due to many UKIP voters switching to the Tories (which would of course lead to seat losses for Labour anyway).  

[AuH2O Republican]

Are we slowly coming back to the situation before Coalition where Lib Dems over-performed in by-elections??

[IceAgeComing]

Sorry if I'm posting this in the wrong place, but it seems like the bottom might be falling out for Labour, at least for the 2020 election:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-mays-tories-open-up-18-point-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-a7370246.html

Labour's share of the vote is actually about the same as it got in 2015 - the large Tory lead is mostly due to many UKIP voters switching to the Tories (which would of course lead to seat losses for Labour anyway).  

Depends what polls you look at; today's Yougov has Labour at 26% which is a fair bit lower than the 30% they got in 2015: down near 1983 levels.  That's probably Labour's realistic floor though; and with UKIP falling apart the risk to losing northern seats might be diminishing a bit.  Not at all good though...

[ag]

Sorry if I'm posting this in the wrong place, but it seems like the bottom might be falling out for Labour, at least for the 2020 election:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-mays-tories-open-up-18-point-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-a7370246.html

Labour's share of the vote is actually about the same as it got in 2015 - the large Tory lead is mostly due to many UKIP voters switching to the Tories (which would of course lead to seat losses for Labour anyway).  

Depends what polls you look at; today's Yougov has Labour at 26% which is a fair bit lower than the 30% they got in 2015: down near 1983 levels.  That's probably Labour's realistic floor though; and with UKIP falling apart the risk to losing northern seats might be diminishing a bit.  Not at all good though...

With UKIP "falling apart", in fact, the only thing that would separate Labour from humiliation with such results would be a LibDem resurgence.

[adma]

I don't see LD in Witney so much as "overperformance" than as a kind of "return to normal".

Neat to see Corbyn Anti in fifth place in B&S.

[Vosem]

I don't see LD in Witney so much as "overperformance" than as a kind of "return to normal".

Neat to see Corbyn Anti in fifth place in B&S.

This was their best performance in Witney since 1983. By-elections have limited value in predicting general trends or general elections, but this was very clearly a massive overperformance.