UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[vileplume]

Better add Sleaford and North Hykeham to this list

This one won't be remotely competitive though. The only party who could probably seriously challenge the Tories here would be UKIP but the chances of them getting their act together between now and the by-election is approximately zilch.

[joevsimp]

Better add Sleaford and North Hykeham to this list

This one won't be remotely competitive though. The only party who could probably seriously challenge the Tories here would be UKIP but the chances of them getting their act together between now and the by-election is approximately zilch.

Plus the Tories would be utterly mad to nominate anyone who isn't practically a 'kipper anyway.

The lib dems barely saved their deposit last year and the Greens sat it out. I wonder if either would rather save themselves 500 quid and some death threats for this one?

[Hnv1]

Better add Sleaford and North Hykeham to this list

This one won't be remotely competitive though. The only party who could probably seriously challenge the Tories here would be UKIP but the chances of them getting their act together between now and the by-election is approximately zilch.

Must be one of the whitest constituencies out there

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour were second here in 2015 but with like 17% of the vote.

[vileplume]

Labour were second here in 2015 but with like 17% of the vote.

-Yes they were but they will probably lose second. I believe whatever vote they have here comes from the WWC parts of Sleaford which is the kind of place Corbyn's Labour is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick. A vote share in the low teens is probably the most likely outcome.

-UKIP will make an effort here and will probably get into the 20s (apparently Suzanne Evans who is one of their less dislikeable figures is considering a run).

-The Greens didn't even run here in 2015 so there is no chance they run in a by election where a lost deposit is a certainty.

-The Tories will take the natural hit of a governing party and fall into the mid 40s but will still hold easily.

-This area is pretty horrible demographically for the Lib Dems so they will struggle to gain much traction. They will probably pick up a few disaffected remain voters mostly in North Hykeham (middle class Lincoln suburbs) where they have done well locally in the past to push them into the low teens and allow them to compete with Labour for third.

Essentially 1st and 2nd are virtually locked in as Tory, UKIP respectively. The battle is for third between Labour and the Lib Dems (the betting markets agree).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tories should run Mr Moat for throwback's sake

[doktorb]

Better add Sleaford and North Hykeham to this list

This one won't be remotely competitive though. The only party who could probably seriously challenge the Tories here would be UKIP but the chances of them getting their act together between now and the by-election is approximately zilch.

Must be one of the whitest constituencies out there

At the last Census, Sleaford and North Hykeham had a residential population of 111,056 of which    109,147 were classified as White.

[bore]

Tories should run Mr Moat for throwback's sake

If that happened Paul Gascoigne would unexpectedly file as an independent candidate at the last moment.

[FredLindq]

He would lose on penelties and cry afterwards.

[YL]

Eight candidates for Richmond Park:

Zac Goldsmith, "Independent"
Howling Laud Hope, OMRLP
"Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir", One Love Party
Sarah Olney, Lib Dem
David Powell, no description
Dominic Stockford, Christian People's Alliance
Fiona Syms, Independent
Christian Wolmar, Labour

I think "Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir" is Ankit Love, that party's founder.

Fiona Syms was married to the Tory MP for Poole and is explicitly standing as an Independent Conservative; she says she'll apply to join the Tories if she wins.  She describes herself as "broadly pro-Heathrow".

I can't find anything about David Powell, not that I've tried very hard.

[doktorb]

Eight candidates for Richmond Park:

Zac Goldsmith, "Independent"
Howling Laud Hope, OMRLP
"Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir", One Love Party
Sarah Olney, Lib Dem
David Powell, no description
Dominic Stockford, Christian People's Alliance
Fiona Syms, Independent
Christian Wolmar, Labour

I think "Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir" is Ankit Love, that party's founder.

Fiona Syms was married to the Tory MP for Poole and is explicitly standing as an Independent Conservative; she says she'll apply to join the Tories if she wins.  She describes herself as "broadly pro-Heathrow".

I can't find anything about David Powell, not that I've tried very hard.

I can't say if this is *the* David Powell but..


https://www.facebook.com/groups/speakoutagainstpsychiatry/permalink/1233293696744452/?match=cmljaG1vbmQgcGFyayxkYXZpZCBwb3dlbGw%3D

[YL]

10 candidates for Sleaford & North Hykeham

The Iconic Arty-Pole (OMRLP)
Victoria Ayling (UKIP)
David Bishop (Bus Pass Elvis)
Jim Clarke (Lab)
Paul Coyne (no description)
Caroline Johnson (Con)
Marianne Overton (Lincolnshire Independents)
Ross Pepper (Lib Dem)
Sarah Stock (Ind)
Mark Suffield (no description)

Overton has stood here before and saved her deposit in both 2010 and 2015.  Suffield is a North Kesteven councillor elected for the Lincolnshire Independents, and Coyne is a Sleaford town councillor who also appears to have been affiliated with them.  Stock is a hospital campaign independent who has been endorsed by the Greens.

[Tintrlvr]

A regular civil war among the Lincolnshire Independents here!

[doktorb]

In another place David Boothroyd has found a video from the Richmond Park "no label" candidate



http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/441253/thread

[parochial boy]

I was round Richmond Park earlier today, obviously a crap metric, but Lib Dem posters/boards outnumbering Conservative ones two to one. 18 months ago, there wasn't a single Lib Dem sign around, so if anything, they are feeling a bit more optimistic this time.

Of course, if the number of garden signs are anything to go by, the overwhelming winners are estate agents...

[AuH2O Republican]

I'm actually a little excited about this by-election, and normally I don't really care too much for them.

Goldsmith's personal popularity in Richmond Park would normally be enough...but with his Leave stance in a heavily Remain area, that popularity is no doubt going to be tested.

Lib Dems might smell a real chance here of an upset.

[Phony Moderate]

Richmond Park was today. Polls closed within the past hour.

The predictable "Vote Lib Dem to stop Hard Brexit" line going around; of course if this were Cambridge it'd be "Vote Lib Dem to stop the Hard Left", and if this were Bermondsey it'd be...

[Phony Moderate]

Word is the Lib Dems are ahead.

[YL]

Richmond Park was today. Polls closed within the past hour.

The predictable "Vote Lib Dem to stop Hard Brexit" line going around; of course if this were Cambridge it'd be "Vote Lib Dem to stop the Hard Left", and if this were Bermondsey it'd be...

TBF it might be "Stop Hard Brexit" in Cambridge too.

I agree that the Lib Dems' campaigning is cynical -- and here in Hallam I've seen a lot of it -- but if they really have unseated Goldsmith -- and it's beginning to look that way -- I'll be delighted.

[YL]

The Guardian is reporting that Labour people at the count think the Lib Dems will win by 2000 or more.

[YL]

Lib Dem win confirmed.  Rubbish radio reception so I didn't pick up the exact numbers.

Good riddance Zac.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Buh-bye, racist adulterer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LOL Zac Goldsmith

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Highest by election turnout since 1984 Enfield Southgate.

[Tintrlvr]

Highest by election turnout since 1984 Enfield Southgate.

Crewe & Nantwich in 2008 was higher.