UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)
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Author Topic: UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)  (Read 85505 times)
Cassius
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« Reply #225 on: December 01, 2016, 10:17:02 PM »

Zac Goldsmith... you stupid c**nt.
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YL
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« Reply #226 on: December 02, 2016, 03:06:45 AM »
« Edited: December 02, 2016, 03:28:41 AM by YL »

The track record of "single issue" by-elections isn't great, is it?

Haltemprice & Howden 2008 turned into a ridiculous circus with no serious candidate opposing Davis's stance.  Davis won easily, of course, but did he really achieve anything in terms of the point he was trying to make?

Before that the next example would be the Unionist mass resignations over the Anglo-Irish Agreement and the by-elections in January 1986.  Unsurprisingly, in many constituencies those who actually supported the Agreement didn't want to be involved in the stunt and didn't bother, and in four of them the Unionists had to organise a fake candidate to stand against them.  And they lost Newry & Armagh to the SDLP.

Before that it seems that you have to go back to the Duchess of Atholl and appeasement in 1938, and she lost too.  Nor did it work out very well for George Lansbury in 1912.

(I'm not counting party switch by-elections like Clacton and Rochester & Strood a couple of years ago or Lincoln 1973.)
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #227 on: December 02, 2016, 05:14:09 AM »
« Edited: December 02, 2016, 05:15:54 AM by Phony Moderate »

Highest by election turnout since 1984 Enfield Southgate.

Crewe & Nantwich in 2008 was higher.

I'm sure Wirral West just before the 1997 general election was incredibly high - like over 70%. I believe Tony Benn's victory at Chesterfield in 1984 was the last time a by-election had a higher turnout than at the previous GE.

The BBC has done a write-up on ten notable by-elections from the past: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38167746
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joevsimp
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« Reply #228 on: December 02, 2016, 08:17:18 AM »

I'm wondering if this might boost Ukip actually, Looking toward Sleaford next week,will leave voters think that if the Tories are being pressured into softening their stance then there is an obvious response to that
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #229 on: December 02, 2016, 09:41:38 AM »

Labour lost their deposit, which is kind of embarrassing.
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ag
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« Reply #230 on: December 02, 2016, 10:05:42 AM »

Great news!

LibDems will recover. Hopefully, they again hold the balance in the next Parliament.

I mean, can't a few Remain Tories just resign/switch to independent to deny her the majority? i know, she still has the Unionists, but, for god's sake, make her life uncomfortable!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #231 on: December 02, 2016, 10:33:20 AM »

Labour lost their deposit, which is kind of embarrassing.

Well it's never good to poll that low, but this is basically Labour's weakest part of London and the deposit was nearly lost at the 2010 GE even. Vote shares since 1997:

1997 12.6 2001 11.3 2005 9.5 2010 5.0 2015 12.3, 2016b 3.7

And for the main predecessor seat:

1983 7.1, 1987 7.1, 1992 5.8
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YL
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« Reply #232 on: December 02, 2016, 12:12:11 PM »

Labour lost their deposit, which is kind of embarrassing.

Well it's never good to poll that low, but this is basically Labour's weakest part of London and the deposit was nearly lost at the 2010 GE even. Vote shares since 1997:

1997 12.6 2001 11.3 2005 9.5 2010 5.0 2015 12.3, 2016b 3.7

And for the main predecessor seat:

1983 7.1, 1987 7.1, 1992 5.8

There's a considerable history of Labour losing deposits in Lib Dem by-election victories in formerly Tory seats with little Labour presence: Newbury, Christchurch, Winchester, Romsey.  There are certainly things for Labour to worry about at the moment, but that a lot of their supporters (and, evidently, a number of members) voted tactically to beat Zac Goldsmith in a by-election in which Labour had no chance does not strike me as one of them.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #233 on: December 02, 2016, 01:19:06 PM »

Yeah, I don't think that Labour are sweating that much over losing a deposit in Richmond, especially in a close by-election where the other major parties were all telling people to vote tactically in some way
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windjammer
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« Reply #234 on: December 02, 2016, 04:24:54 PM »

Resigning and then running again: so dumb
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #235 on: December 09, 2016, 05:24:03 AM »

British activity on this board has really dried up compared to the days of Brown.

Sleaford and North Hykeham result:

Caroline Johnson: (Conservatives) - 17,570
Victoria Ayling: (UKIP) - 4,426
Ross Pepper: (Liberal Democrats) - 3,606
Jim Clarke: (Labour) - 3,363
Marianne Overton: (Lincolnshire Independent) - 2,892
Sarah Stock: (Independent) - 462
The Iconic Arty-Pole: (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 200
Paul Coyne: (Independent) - 186
Mark Suffield: (Independent) - 74
David Bishop: (Bus Pass Elvis Party) - 55
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Hnv1
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« Reply #236 on: December 09, 2016, 06:38:25 AM »

British activity on this board has really dried up compared to the days of Brown.

Sleaford and North Hykeham result:

Caroline Johnson: (Conservatives) - 17,570
Victoria Ayling: (UKIP) - 4,426
Ross Pepper: (Liberal Democrats) - 3,606
Jim Clarke: (Labour) - 3,363
Marianne Overton: (Lincolnshire Independent) - 2,892
Sarah Stock: (Independent) - 462
The Iconic Arty-Pole: (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 200
Paul Coyne: (Independent) - 186
Mark Suffield: (Independent) - 74
David Bishop: (Bus Pass Elvis Party) - 55

turnout was half of 2015 so I wouldn't read too much into this, maybe one can spot a little trend of "shire labour" moving to LibDen post-Brexit.

I am a bit surprised Ukip hadn't done better here
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vileplume
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« Reply #237 on: December 09, 2016, 08:18:44 AM »

British activity on this board has really dried up compared to the days of Brown.

Sleaford and North Hykeham result:

Caroline Johnson: (Conservatives) - 17,570
Victoria Ayling: (UKIP) - 4,426
Ross Pepper: (Liberal Democrats) - 3,606
Jim Clarke: (Labour) - 3,363
Marianne Overton: (Lincolnshire Independent) - 2,892
Sarah Stock: (Independent) - 462
The Iconic Arty-Pole: (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 200
Paul Coyne: (Independent) - 186
Mark Suffield: (Independent) - 74
David Bishop: (Bus Pass Elvis Party) - 55

turnout was half of 2015 so I wouldn't read too much into this, maybe one can spot a little trend of "shire labour" moving to LibDen post-Brexit.

I am a bit surprised Ukip hadn't done better here

I would read quite a lot into actually it tells us that the Tories have their 'leave' flank covered and really their only weak spot at the moment is their strongly Remain seats that are marginal vs. the Lib Dems e.g. Bath. This was a fantastic result for the Tories considering they are the government.

The collapse of the Labour vote despite them being the opposition (which sounds more like a joke with each passing day) is also telling as this time there was no incentive for Labour voters to vote tactically and it just suggests that they have just lost support. The Labour vote in this seat was primarily from the white working class parts of Sleaford and we are perhaps seeing the beginning of the collapse of the WWC Labour vote. This should have Labour MPs and supporters very worried, there is some signs the right of the party (Kinnock Jr., Kendall etc.) are starting to realise the potential disaster however the leadership remain blissfully unaware and are making the problem worse with their policies on immigration amongst other things. Oh and Labour are at 25% in a YouGov poll today their worst showing since September 2009 at the height of Brown's unpopularly, great work Jeremy keep it up.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #238 on: December 09, 2016, 09:01:37 AM »

This was a no-hoper for Labour, but coming fourth here is just embarrassing. If Corbyn is so wonderful, why aren't people voting for him?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #239 on: December 09, 2016, 09:19:30 AM »

This was a no-hoper for Labour, but coming fourth here is just embarrassing. If Corbyn is so wonderful, why aren't people voting for him?

Because most people don't live in Islington North and Islington North probably isn't going to vote until 2020 anyway. Wink
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #240 on: December 09, 2016, 09:36:31 AM »
« Edited: December 09, 2016, 09:40:41 AM by Phony Moderate »

The Labour vote in this seat was primarily from the white working class parts of Sleaford and we are perhaps seeing the beginning of the collapse of the WWC Labour vote.

Don't know why the word 'white' is included in the context of this seat. I don't know the exact census figures but I doubt there's more than about seven non-white people in it.

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And the same people have also claimed to represent the 'liberal, progressive' voice of Labour, yet they are now adopting quasi-UKIP rhetoric because muh public mood.  Kendall neither bothers nor surprises me as much as she made noises in that direction during her leadership campaign and seems to genuinely believe the nonsense she spews, but people like Kinnock, Umunna etc...f**k them. I actually don't disagree that immigration needs controls or whatever, but ffs some of the Progress lot give the impression that would happily take a photo op with the Westboro Baptist Church if the mood of the electorate turned homophobic for some reason - as opposed to, you know, standing up for 'liberal, progressive' values.

Also has Umunna managed to avoid 'the trash' recently?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #241 on: December 09, 2016, 01:19:42 PM »
« Edited: December 09, 2016, 01:22:50 PM by Tintrlvr »

Very strong result for the Conservatives, though of course this is a safe seat that they were at no risk of losing while polling well. A sign that the vulnerability on display in Richmond Park is relatively limited in scope to seats that were historically LD-Con marginals, not that anyone expected the LDs were ever going to challenge here.

Surprised by how much of a dud Victoria Ayling turned out to be for UKIP. She was supposed to be a star candidate. A sign that the UKIP tide is ebbing, I think.

Solid result for the LDs, back to third place ahead of Labour and making some gains (unlike everyone else) even in a no-hope type of seat. Still well below their 2010 result (whereas they are probably back to 2010 across a lot of areas further south), but that's no shock as a lot of their 2010 vote in a place like this were generic protest voters who are now voting UKIP, or maybe for Marianne Overton.

Joke result for Labour, fourth place is terrible. They were putting up solid results in the 30-35% range here 20 years ago and might have even won the seat had there been a by-election in, say, 1995. Could have been worse given that Overton nipped at their heels. It seems clear that they are squandering an opportunity with Corbyn, who turns off both middle class liberal voters and working class voters of a less liberal strain, but the alternatives are mostly different rather than better.
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ag
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« Reply #242 on: December 09, 2016, 02:18:02 PM »

Good for LibDems. To the extent that Labour loses (small "l") liberal voters to them even in this, completely non-strategic enviromnemnt, we may also see some interesting action in seats where LD will be actually competing with Labour head-on.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #243 on: December 09, 2016, 02:20:36 PM »

Twenty years ago was ruddy 1996; I don't think that it's fair to expect those numbers unless you have a very unpopular government.  Like the Labour result isn't great but come on, let's not over exaggerate how bad it is
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #244 on: December 09, 2016, 02:37:42 PM »

Labour have so little organisation in this constituency that they don't even run candidates in local elections in most of it, which is the difference between 10% here and 15% in Witney. It's pretty clear that the Labour vote (such as it is) mostly didn't show up rather than jumped ship; enthusiasm levels really are that low at present. That's the one thing you can take away from this for sure, but then we knew it anyway. But I will remember all the #analysis for the next time the Tories poll abysmally in a rock solid Labour seat in a by-election Smiley

Anyway this was a low turnout by-election in a rural constituency in December. Other than demonstrating that the Shires Tory vote is happy enough right now to turn out like a machine (which is not entirely useless, but then they do this even when mildly unhappy lol) and the fact that supporters of opposition parties are not exactly enthused right now there's not a lot that can be usefully drawn from this.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #245 on: December 09, 2016, 02:40:43 PM »

There were some silly internet rumours last night that Labour was at risk of losing its deposit; if they came originally from people at the count then I presume these came from people not familiar with the weirdness of counts in big rural seats. Or who just can't count. Or both.
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bore
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« Reply #246 on: December 09, 2016, 02:56:58 PM »

Yeah, the thing which Labour should be worrying about (and we really really should be worrying) are the polls, and the general state of the leadership, not these by election results, which are pretty much impossible, given the seats that have come up, to generalise.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #247 on: December 09, 2016, 05:10:25 PM »

  Not sure where to post this question, but in the various by-elections being held are all of the new Conservative candidates in favor of Brexit, and is the default assumption now that that's to be expected?
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Gary J
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« Reply #248 on: December 09, 2016, 07:42:38 PM »

[quote authr=rob in cal link=topic=221651.msg5427389#msg5427389 date=1481321425]
  Not sure where to post this question, but in the various by-elections being held are all of the new Conservative candidates in favor of Brexit, and is the default assumption now that that's to be expected?
[/quote]

Yes, pretty much.

The Tories are still divided between big business friendly soft Brexiteers and nationalist hard Brexiteers, but almost none of the present generation of Conservatives is going to argue against Brexit means Brexit.

I would draw an analogy with the way that free traders were squeezed out of Conservative and Unionist ranks in the early 20th century. By the time of the First World War, the internal battle between free trade and protectionism was clearly won by advocates of the latter policy. The argument had shifted to one about the extent that free trade in food was still compatible with a generally protectionist policy.
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ag
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« Reply #249 on: December 09, 2016, 08:11:54 PM »

Ken Clarke should bolt to LibDems. He has no place left for him in his old party.
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