UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[parochial boy]

If Brexit is the defining issue in these by-elections these days, then Labour do have a somewhat major handicap in that no-one has a clue where they stand on Brexit. That's not down to Corbyn being a "lefty extremist" but down to him being basically clueless.

there is some signs the right of the party (Kinnock Jr., Kendall etc.) are starting to realise the potential disaster however the leadership remain blissfully unaware and are making the problem worse with their policies on immigration amongst other things. 

The policies that those sorts of people support have had more than their fair share of creating Labour's current issues - no party of the working class spends its time "reforming" the public sector and creating a "flexible" labour force.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I doubt Brexit was an issue here, at least not for Labour. Simple case of Labour supporters being unenthusiastic due to everything and this being a constituency with no real organisation. The Brexit issue has directly lost Labour some votes(temporarily?) but at the other end; a lot of clichéd Grauniad readers (whether they actually read the paper or not) unhappy at the neutral line taken by the leadership.

[joevsimp]

yeah, there was a piece the other day in the graun saying that Labour's position is losing them support with both leave and remain voters

[Silent Hunter]

yeah, there was a piece the other day in the graun saying that Labour's position is losing them support with both leave and remain voters

The only thing you get if you straddle a fence is uncomfortable.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

there is some signs the right of the party (Kinnock Jr., Kendall etc.) are starting to realise the potential disaster however the leadership remain blissfully unaware and are making the problem worse with their policies on immigration amongst other things. 

The policies that those sorts of people support have had more than their fair share of creating Labour's current issues - no party of the working class spends its time "reforming" the public sector and creating a "flexible" labour force.

You mean the ~*~gig economy~*~ isn't the most exciting and promising paradigm shift in labor relations since industrial unionism? You don't say!

[YL]

Jamie Reed (Lab, Copeland) has resigned to take up a new job at the Sellafield nuclear plant.

Historically strong Labour seat but with a fairly small majority these days; Cumbrian coast, including Sellafield and the large town of Whitehaven, and the western Lake District, including Keswick, Borrowdale, Buttermere and Wasdale.  Likely to be merged with Workington in the boundary review to form a single urban West Cumbria seat.

[Phony Moderate]

What an utterly socialistic move!!

[Silent Hunter]

Ah, the man who resigned from the Labour front bench while Corbyn was still making his first victory speech.

That's going to be a key Labour fight; they could well lose that if they're not careful.

[IceAgeComing]

The 2015 result was as follows:

Reed (Lab): 16,750 (42.3%)
Haraldsen (Con): 14,186 (35.8%)
Pye (UKIP): 6,148 (15.5%)
Gallagher (Lib Dem): 1,368 (3.5%)
Todd (Green): 1,179 (3.0%)

The Tories need a 3.3% swing to take the seat; the swing in 2015 was 1.3% from Labour to the Conservatives.  It is pretty marginal and its essential that Labour holds it - especially since the last time that Copeland (or Whitehaven, its predecessor) voted Tory was 1931 which is of symbolic value if nothing else. 

I don't know what the EU referendum result was for the constituency: considering that the election may well be around the time that the government wants to trigger Article 50 the EU may well be a key issue in the thing.  I'd guess that it'd be similar to the Council Area (62% Leave), could be wrong though. If the EU is important then it depends how it goes: public support is falling for the governments EU strategy and that may lead Tory voters to hemmorage votes to UKIP; while Labour seem to be annoying both sides - the Lib Dems should retain their deposit this time.  Other issues may well emerge especially since this is a marginal seat and Labour will not want to fight on Europe if they are able to avoid it; but that's not something that its easy to talk about.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Copeland/Whitehaven has been Labour held for a very long time but would have been lost at the 1983, 1987 and probably 1992 elections on present boundaries (it was expanded significantly for the 2010 election). Very polarised constituency; the Labour vote is anchored in the former West Cumberland coalfield and is solid, but the bulk of the rest of the seat (inc./esp. where senior Sellafield employees live) is staunchly Tory. Sellafield dominates the local economy.

[Hnv1]

I smell a coup here with a possible Tory gain as some Labour voters will go Ukip

[IceAgeComing]

Dunno if its really a coup that the Tories gain a seat that only needs a 3% swing - sure its not really a good sign for the government to be gaining seats during their term but its not like the Tories are suddenly competitive in somewhere like central Manchester or something...

Copeland/Whitehaven has been Labour held for a very long time but would have been lost at the 1983, 1987 and probably 1992 elections on present boundaries (it was expanded significantly for the 2010 election). Very polarised constituency; the Labour vote is anchored in the former West Cumberland coalfield and is solid, but the bulk of the rest of the seat (inc./esp. where senior Sellafield employees live) is staunchly Tory. Sellafield dominates the local economy.

Sure; but you can guarantee that the press will talk about "The Conservatives are now winning seats that they haven't won since 1931" if they gain the seat.

[Tintrlvr]

Dunno if its really a coup that the Tories gain a seat that only needs a 3% swing - sure its not really a good sign for the government to be gaining seats during their term but its not like the Tories are suddenly competitive in somewhere like central Manchester or something...

Copeland/Whitehaven has been Labour held for a very long time but would have been lost at the 1983, 1987 and probably 1992 elections on present boundaries (it was expanded significantly for the 2010 election). Very polarised constituency; the Labour vote is anchored in the former West Cumberland coalfield and is solid, but the bulk of the rest of the seat (inc./esp. where senior Sellafield employees live) is staunchly Tory. Sellafield dominates the local economy.

Sure; but you can guarantee that the press will talk about "The Conservatives are now winning seats that they haven't won since 1931" if they gain the seat.

The Tories already have a majority. If Labour are losing additional seats in by-elections, that's a disaster.

For what it's worth, a governing party hasn't gained a seat in a by-election since Mitcham & Morden in 1982, not at all a good precedent for Labour if it happens but also a sign that it may be more difficult than some expect for the Tories to make a gain here.

[joevsimp]

Tristram Hunt has now added another log to Labour's pyre by resigning his seat of Stoke on Trent Central to take up the directorship of the Victoria and Albert Museum.

In 2015 he had a 5000 vote majority over Ukip with the conservatives another 23 votes behind them in third.  It would take an 8.5% swing to either of them to gain it.

Hunt was widely seen as an unpopular imposition of a Metropolitan Elite candidate on an industrial Midlands seat, so Labour would be best advised to pick someone local for this one

[Phony Moderate]

Stoke-on-Trent as a whole voted 69.4%-30.6% to Leave in the referendum.

Hunt was widely seen as an unpopular imposition of a Metropolitan Elite candidate on an industrial Midlands seat, so Labour would be best advised to pick someone local for this one

Or if they want to combine 'local' with 'celebrity' (Hunt was vaguely the latter) they could go for one of the many great professional darts players that Stoke has produced. Off the top of my head three world champions (Phil Taylor, Adrian Lewis and Ted Hankey) originate from there, as well as the former world finalist Andy Hamilton, and I believe Eric Bristow lived there for many years (possibly still does).

There was actually an MP's darts championship that took place at the Ally Pally last month (in conjunction with the actual world championship)...neither of the competitors was Labour (it was some SNPer and a Tory from Cornwall IIRC).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a safe seat and if Hunt had a personal vote it was strictly negative, though these aren't good circumstances with which to trigger a by-election so to be wary is natural.

[joevsimp]

You wouldn't be implying something about the likelihood of finding any of the PLP down at their local boozer or working men's club there would you?

[Shadows]

Labor could become the new whigs with slavery, had 2 voter factions of considerable clout & couldn't take a decision with Libs n Green taking 1 part n Tories n UKIP taking the other.

This fence sitting is only gonna hurt them. Corbyn has to do a better job articulating it. The focus should be on young voters.

[ag]

Labor could become the new whigs with slavery, had 2 voter factions of considerable clout & couldn't take a decision with Libs n Green taking 1 part n Tories n UKIP taking the other.

This fence sitting is only gonna hurt them. Corbyn has to do a better job articulating it. The focus should be on young voters.

Well, if it is up to Corbyn doing a better job, I fully expect Mr. Farron to be the opposition leader after the next election.

[Tintrlvr]

Labor could become the new whigs with slavery, had 2 voter factions of considerable clout & couldn't take a decision with Libs n Green taking 1 part n Tories n UKIP taking the other.

This fence sitting is only gonna hurt them. Corbyn has to do a better job articulating it. The focus should be on young voters.

You're better off hoping for pigs to fly than for Corbyn to do a better job.

[Silent Hunter]

There was actually an MP's darts championship that took place at the Ally Pally last month (in conjunction with the actual world championship)...neither of the competitors was Labour (it was some SNPer and a Tory from Cornwall IIRC).

Er, I'm pretty sure that you need more than two people for a championship... otherwise it's just a match...

Anyway, this is a three-way marginal and an 8.5% swing is entirely possible for a by-election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, this is a three-way marginal

No it's not; Hunt's majority is/was 17% and the second placed candidate polled 23%. Obviously the circumstances of the by-election and the poor national polling position means that caution and care is nevertheless required, but that's a different matter.

[Shadows]

As much hate as Corbyn receives (& I admit he has faults), the guy is a decent guy, as in very dignified even in attacking & he has got a really good quality voice. The other guy Owen looked a complete joke next to him!

[vileplume]

Labor could become the new whigs with slavery, had 2 voter factions of considerable clout & couldn't take a decision with Libs n Green taking 1 part n Tories n UKIP taking the other.

This fence sitting is only gonna hurt them. Corbyn has to do a better job articulating it. The focus should be on young voters.

Well, if it is up to Corbyn doing a better job, I fully expect Mr. Farron to be the opposition leader after the next election.

Lol. The strength of the Labour brand is enough to prevent a complete wipeout, in many seats across the country a donkey wearing a red rosette would be easily elected.

As for the Lib Dems the biggest problem for them in a general election is high turnout, the higher the turnout the worse they typically do. The Lib Dems should probably focus all their resources at the next election holding what they've got (some may prove tricky like Carshalton and Wallington) and throwing everything at maybe 10 or 15 others with a goal of getting to 20 seats. It's going to take several elections to rebuild to where they were, if they ever manage at all.

[vileplume]

As much hate as Corbyn receives (& I admit he has faults), the guy is a decent guy, as in very dignified even in attacking & he has got a really good quality voice. The other guy Owen looked a complete joke next to him!

Saying Corbyn has faults is the understatement of the century I can barely find one quality that makes him suited to being opposition leader. You might think Owen Smith looked like a joke but the problem is the vast majority British public thinks Corbyn is a joke, either that or an extremist. I think he is the most unpopular major party leader since polling began and a substantial amount of Labour's own voters would prefer Theresa May as PM. Did you see what a farce his 're-launch' was this week? I swear every time he opens his mouth he manages to make himself look ridiculous.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/03/last-voting-intention-2016-sees-labour-lowest-leve/

If Labour manages to lose these upcoming by-elections it might be in their long term best interest if it causes Corbyn to fall on his sword and they get a less useless leader.