UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Pandaguineapig]

How long till farage returns? Lol

[jaichind]

I think CON wins Copeland

[jaichind]

Copeland

CON 44.3 (+8.5)
LAB 37.3 (-4.9)
LD 7.3 (+3.8  )
UKIP 6.5 (-9.0)
GRN 1.7 (-1.3)

CON wins on UKIP tactical voting plus LAB bleeding support to LD.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I await the pathetic excuses with morbid curiosity.

[Pandaguineapig]

Factoring in national polling this wasn't a terrible night for labour

[Phony Moderate]

Copeland

CON 44.3 (+8.5)
LAB 37.3 (-4.9)
LD 7.3 (+3.8  )
UKIP 6.5 (-9.0)
GRN 1.7 (-1.3)

CON wins on UKIP tactical voting plus LAB bleeding support to LD.

Labour bled more support to 'abstain' than to the Lib Dems, I think.

Best result for a governing party in a post-war by-election, surely.

[jaichind]

I do no think I recall in situation like this in UK where the ruling party captures an opposition seat in a straight-up by-election fight (which means not counting by-elections where CON might have won a LAB seat because SDP split he LAB vote).  I have to take a look.  Certainly if that did take place the margin would have been small, unlike a decisive win here like Copeland.

[jaichind]

Copeland

CON 44.3 (+8.5)
LAB 37.3 (-4.9)
LD 7.3 (+3.8  )
UKIP 6.5 (-9.0)
GRN 1.7 (-1.3)

CON wins on UKIP tactical voting plus LAB bleeding support to LD.

Labour bled more support to 'abstain' than to the Lib Dems, I think.

Best result for a governing party in a post-war by-election, surely.

Sure,  but turnout was actually quite high for a by-election and in absolute votes LD actually beat their 2015 result.

[MT Treasurer]

That Labor loss in Copeland wasn't expected?

[Boston Bread]

Factoring in national polling this wasn't a terrible night for labour

True, but the national polling in itself is terrible for labour.

[Phony Moderate]

Factoring in national polling this wasn't a terrible night for labour

Er, we held on in Darlington in 1983 when the polls were absolutely atrocious, the Tories held on to several marginal seats during the 1997 parliament when our poll leads were above 20% much of the time.

This isn't good, there's no way of getting around it.

[vileplume]

Factoring in national polling this wasn't a terrible night for labour

Oh it is abysmal. Even the Tories in 1997 won by-elections when they were polling further behind the government than Labour is now did far better in by-elections than Labour did tonight. Even very unpopular oppositions usually do ok in by-elections as the public usually use them as a free opportunity to kick the government. I don't think anyone expected the Tories to win by as much as they have. Labour is in a very deep crisis.

[jaichind]

Factoring in national polling this wasn't a terrible night for labour

True, but the national polling in itself is terrible for labour.

And even if national polling is bad usually in a by-election it is the opposition voting bloc voters that tends to turn out and the the ruling party voting bloc voters that stay home so in this case LAB should have beaten their national polling by a significant margin.  Somehow that did not happen.  That said, Corbyn will stay on of course.    

[jaichind]

That Labor loss in Copeland wasn't expected?

I read a lot of rumors on-line that LAB was going to lose but there have been so many cases in the past where such rumors turned out not to be true.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Comfortable enough hold in a safe seat (despite less than ideal circumstances), clear loss in marginal; you might take this if you were the government party in your second term. But not, I think, if you are the Opposition. This is not acceptable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But fear not comrades: a local by-election was gained in Basingstoke the other way! Everything is absolutely fine.

[vileplume]

But fear not comrades: a local by-election was gained in Basingstoke the other way! Everything is absolutely fine.

Labour's local government organisation is apparently pretty strong in Basingstoke while being utterly miserable in the rest of Hampshire. Basingstoke is probably trending Labour especially if it loses the Tory stronghold ward of Basing in a future boundary changes due to population growth. I doubt Labour will ever gain back Portsmouth North (which is effectively safe Tory now) in the short or medium future especially if it gains Purbrook and Stakes from Havant where Labour gets obliterated by the Tories.

The Labour gain in Winklebury suggests a gain in the county division of Basingstoke North West in May. This may counteract any losses in Rushmoor or Gosport (where apparently boundary changes have been unfavourable). The Tories will comfortably remain in control of Hampshire County Council anyway lol.

[vileplume]

Oh and the main reason for a Labour gain in Winklebury can be explained mostly due to the proposed closure of a local school which the Labour candidate was the main petitioner against (even the tory candidate signed up to his petition lol).

[YL]

Time for Corbyn to go.

(Well, no.  That was some time ago.)

Here's the BBC's exit pollster John Curtice on the results and Labour.

[Zinneke]

He's spot on when he says UKIP targeting Labour is laughable, and pretty much trying to copy the SNP.

[YL]

I await the pathetic excuses with morbid curiosity.

It appears that it's all Tony Blair's fault.

[Hnv1]

Well that's quite a defeat (to the tories, UKIP could a slap on the hand last night), expect mounting PLP pressure on Corbs now

[Phony Moderate]

Nice to see the left-wing commie biased BBC ignoring Copeland and focusing almost entirely on Nuttall going down in Stoke...oh wait, they are focusing on Copeland.

[JA]

What's the reason for Labour's abysmal performance in these by-elections and their national polling? Is it simply the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn? Or are there more significant factors?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the reason for Labour's abysmal performance in these by-elections and their national polling? Is it simply the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn? Or are there more significant factors?

The circumstances of the by-elections were bad (voters don't like to have to vote in 'unnecessary' elections etc) and there are some additional local issues in Copeland,* but it's mostly, yeah, that the extremely unpopular Jeremy Corbyn is a massive electoral drag. Particularly, as it turns out, in that he's a huge incentive for Tories to turn out and for wavering voters to vote Tory. Media #analysis about CORE LABOUR VOTERS and BREXIT looks misplaced; the problem is more traditional...

_{*But then would these - e.g. the importance of the local nuclear industry - even be a problem with another leader?}