UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Is there any reason to believe Corbyn would actually step down after a general election wipe-out?

[MAINEiac4434]

Is there any reason to believe Corbyn would actually step down after a general election wipe-out?

Convention? But it's also convention to leave after a no-confidence vote (Margaret Thatcher left after winning one) so shrugging shoulders emoji

[jaichind]

Is there any reason to believe Corbyn would actually step down after a general election wipe-out?

Convention? But it's also convention to leave after a no-confidence vote (Margaret Thatcher left after winning one) so shrugging shoulders emoji

Did not Neil Kinnock stay on after 1987?  So I guess convention would imply that LAB performance was above expectations, however tiny, then the Corybn can stay on.  I guess for Corybn that would be to do slightly better than the 2015 LAB performance.  In which case he can make the argument that he could and should stay.    Of course if if LAB gets wiped out I do not thing he would have leg to stand on to stay.  Maybe I am wrong and underestimate how thick skinned Corybn can be.

[YL]

Is there any reason to believe Corbyn would actually step down after a general election wipe-out?

Convention? But it's also convention to leave after a no-confidence vote (Margaret Thatcher left after winning one) so shrugging shoulders emoji

Off-topic, but no she didn't.  The Tories' rules at the time required a 15% lead for a victory on the first ballot, and she fell short.  She could have continued into the second round, but realised that MPs were going to switch their votes and that she was going to lose (at least it seems that's what happened) and pulled out.

As for Corbyn, who knows what disasters have to hit the party for him to actually leave of his own accord.  However, the membership's patience must have some limits.

[Silent Hunter]

Also Chamberlain won his confidence vote in 1940, just the majority was heavily reduced.

[jaichind]

Is there any reason to believe Corbyn would actually step down after a general election wipe-out?

Convention? But it's also convention to leave after a no-confidence vote (Margaret Thatcher left after winning one) so shrugging shoulders emoji

Off-topic, but no she didn't.  The Tories' rules at the time required a 15% lead for a victory on the first ballot, and she fell short.  She could have continued into the second round, but realised that MPs were going to switch their votes and that she was going to lose (at least it seems that's what happened) and pulled out.

As for Corbyn, who knows what disasters have to hit the party for him to actually leave of his own accord.  However, the membership's patience must have some limits.

That was my understanding too with respect to Thatcher.   I think what took place was she did a lot worse than expected and lost all confidence to win on the second round which I think was still quite winnable.   It seems she won a similar vote a year earlier by a wide margin and lulled her into a false sense of security.

[Lumine]

Same thing almost happened to Major, he won a large victory against John Redwood in 1995 but had  four votes or so changes sides he would have hit a self-imposed target and resigned.

I don't think it would have been impossible for Thatcher to win in a second round as she only needed a simple majority, but what would have been the point for her? At that point and after all that had happened she would have been left heavily wounded and with little authority.

[Blair]

 JC would resign if he lost in 2020; when a 2016 autumn election looked likely last summer it would have been possible for him to remain, but if he somehow stays until 2020 and loses 40-50 seats (in the best case) he'd face a challenge within hours if he didn't step down

[Pandaguineapig]

JC would resign if he lost in 2020; when a 2016 autumn election looked likely last summer it would have been possible for him to remain, but if he somehow stays until 2020 and loses 40-50 seats (in the best case) he'd face a challenge within hours if he didn't step down

Don't be so sure, his true believers will likely continue to blame Tony Blair for all of Labour's setbacks no matter what (It doesn't matter to them that he's been gone for 10 years)

[Blair]

JC would resign if he lost in 2020; when a 2016 autumn election looked likely last summer it would have been possible for him to remain, but if he somehow stays until 2020 and loses 40-50 seats (in the best case) he'd face a challenge within hours if he didn't step down

Don't be so sure, his true believers will likely continue to blame Tony Blair for all of Labour's setbacks no matter what (It doesn't matter to them that he's been gone for 10 years)

Oh of course- tbh in copeland a lot of them are just calling the voters stupid, and saying they're not enlightened enough etc

But after Corbyn lost he'd be challenged- the trade unions wouldn't allow that (there's talk that the unions will be the ones who sit him down eventually)

[doktorb]

The LibDem candidate for Manchester Gorton is former Councillor Jackie Pearcey.


Labour, from Wikipedia:

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[Zanas]

Hey folks, 2020 is quite far away. With what's been going on electorally in 2016 worldwide, and what's been going on in the past 6 months of campaign here in France, frankly, anything can happen. So just be patient.

[doktorb]

The Green Party has chosen Jess Mayo for the Manchester Gorton by-election

[Tintrlvr]

Mayo was the Green candidate in Wythenshawe and Sale East in 2015, getting 3.8%. She's from Trafford. Sounds like the Greens aren't planning to try here.

The Lib Dem candidate was also their candidate in 1997 and 2001, coming in a distant second each time.

[Phony Moderate]

George Galloway is standing in Manchester Gorton, apparently.

[Blair]

George Galloway is running in the by-election; really doesn't help his reputation as a shameless self promoter, and general idiot.

Labour candidate looks likely to be Azhal Khan MEP- has the support of Unison/GMB and has a big pool of support. Although I've heard that the selection process is still getting people nervous as lots of the other candidates have their own block votes

[Phony Moderate]

George Galloway is running in the by-election; really doesn't help his reputation as a shameless self promoter, and general idiot.

You imply that he cares about that.

[doktorb]

Afzal Khan MEP is the Labour Party candidate
George Galloway has confirmed his intention to stand as an independent

[Silent Hunter]

George Galloway has confirmed his intention to stand as an independent

In case you're wondering, Respect is no more; the party failed to win any seats at all in the last council elections and deregistered as a party in August last year.

[Pandaguineapig]

Afzal Khan MEP is the Labour Party candidate
George Galloway has confirmed his intention to stand as an independent

Potential libdem upset? Lol

[doktorb]

The writ has been moved for Manchester Gorton to be held on 4th May

[Silent Hunter]

The writ has been moved for Manchester Gorton to be held on 4th May

Same day as local elections of course.

[vileplume]

The writ has been moved for Manchester Gorton to be held on 4th May

Same day as local elections of course.

Smart move because the Greater Manchester Mayoral contest will ensure higher turnout and which helps Labour (and the Tories though that's not overly relevant in Manchester Gorton) while it hurts the Lib Dems and 'independents' like Galloway.

[doktorb]

The Conservative candidate is Dr Shaden Jaradat, Student Recruitment and International Development Officer at Manchester University


Peter Clifford will stand in the Manchester Gorton by-election for "Communist League"

[doktorb]

Manchester Gorton candidates





Kemi ABIDOGUN (Christian Peoples Alliance)
Peter CLIFFORD (Communist League)
The Irrelevant Johnny DISCO (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Phil ECKERSLEY (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
George GALLOWAY (Independent)
David HOPKINS ((no ballot paper description))
M. Afzal KHAN (Labour Party)
Sufi Miah KHANDOKER (Independent)
Jess MAYO (Green Party)
Jackie PEARCEY (Liberal Democrats)