UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

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UKIP seem to be blaming the postal votes for them getting thumped, Farage apparently has evidence of fraud, which he'd be better talking to the electoral commission about rather than moaning about it on twitter.

Nutall showing that he is terrible at the whole dog-whistle thing during the count was funny as well

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The spin in the press seems to be "Labour win in spite of Corbyn" which is to be expected really.  What has the guy got to do in order to be credited with something?

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Ogmore might be influenced by the Assembly Elections being on the same day; that might explain the increase in the Plaid vote since they do much better in the Welsh Assembly than they do for Westminster

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42% turnout; no one is really expecting a shocking result.

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there's a recount; its because of a discrepancy in the vote count rather than because the result is particularly close.  Its probably a difference between the number of ballot papers counted and the number of ballot papers verified as being cast, its surprising that it doesn't happen more often.

Sky are saying that Labour has won; nothing more than that.

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Result just declared: Labour hold, majority about 6,000.  Majority more than doubled on a reduced turnout indicates a big swing to Labour; although I don't know whether its particularly representative of anything considering the timing of the thing.  UKIP only got 500 votes, behind the Lib Dems and I think the Greens: lost track with the large number of candidates.

e: just found the full figures:

Labour: 17894 (55.9%, +8.7%)
Conservative: 11537 (36.1%, -5.8%)
Green: 830 (2.6%, -2.5%)
Lib Dems: 820 (2.6%, -1.3%)
UKIP: 507 (1.6%, -1.3%)
Others: 411 (1.3%, +1.3%)

I've not separated out the other candidates; they all got small vote shares and there were loads of them, and I couldn't be bothered.  7.8% swing from the Conservatives to Labour; Labour is the only party to gain in vote share with everyone else falling back.  Not a good result for the Greens; their vote share was halved and they lost their deposit which might well be a Corbyn thing.  Still managed to finish in third though!

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I hadn't realised that the Greens had done that well last year: normally I'd look up the previous election result but I've had other things on my mind today...

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Sorry for yet another post; but according to the Guardian live blog the Tories will not contest the Batley and Spen by-election.  As far as I'm aware its the first Great British by-election the Tories won't have contested since the 1963 Bristol South East by-election; which was the one where Tony Benn returned to the House of Commons after disclaiming his peerage; with the Tory MP who was declared elected after the previous by-election despite losing by 11,000 votes resigning to let him back in.

[IceAgeComing]

UKIP and the Lib Dems also aren't contesting it; so it looks like it might be Labour, maybe the Greens; and a bunch of extremists and weird candidates.  One of the far-right parties will surely stand and may well have a shot at retaining their deposit if UKIP aren't standing, certainly if there isn't another right-wing option.

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Yeah, as of right now it's going to be the oddest two sided contest since those by-elections that the BUF stood in right at the start of the war.  Although I imagine that we'll see other candidates stand; I heard rumblings that the English Democrats might stand someone and that'll split the far right vote; I imagine that we'll get a fair few joke candidates as well.  All depends when they drop the writ; you'd have to imagine that they wouldn't hang around especially if there's no serious opposition to Labour.

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no UKIP candidate in either by-election?

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I suppose splitting the fash vote is only a good thing, it makes it more likely that they all lose their deposits.

e: A potential Glasgow East by-election would most likely be won by the SNP unless things drastically change in the run up; I can't see the McGarry fraud thing changing much.  Labour getting close would be a good thing for them though since it'd suggest that they might gain back some central belt seats in the future; especially since there aren't that many tactical votes flying around in that bit of Glasgow, and even the few Tory and UKIP (they finished fourth ahead of the Greens and the Lib Dems, although the only got 1,000 votes and lost their deposit) voters that are around would probably be less willing to vote tactically for Labour in a Westminster election than they would in a Holyrood election.  I can't see a 10,000+ SNP majority in Glasgow getting wiped out though, especially with Scottish Labour being the only realistic challengers.

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I honestly don't see them actually gaining any votes though: there's been little to no shift in the polls since 2015, and any shift has been negative for both the SNP and Labour and towards the Conservatives (not that the latter are at all relevant anywhere in Glasgow).  I mean even a modest swing towards them (for by-election standards, no higher than 5%) would be good for them and probably the best I could see them doing unless Labour pick their best candidate and the SNP pick Hitler, or unless McGarry decides to do something dumb like resign and stand in the by-election as an independent - she wouldn't win or do particularly well, but it'd split the SNP vote.

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Assuming you're talking about the English Democrats; McKenzie lost to both Loony parties (the Eccentric party is a splitter party) alongwith the oh-so-serious Bus Pass Elvis Party.  Its always good when things like that happen!

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Sorry if I'm posting this in the wrong place, but it seems like the bottom might be falling out for Labour, at least for the 2020 election:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-mays-tories-open-up-18-point-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-a7370246.html

Labour's share of the vote is actually about the same as it got in 2015 - the large Tory lead is mostly due to many UKIP voters switching to the Tories (which would of course lead to seat losses for Labour anyway).  

Depends what polls you look at; today's Yougov has Labour at 26% which is a fair bit lower than the 30% they got in 2015: down near 1983 levels.  That's probably Labour's realistic floor though; and with UKIP falling apart the risk to losing northern seats might be diminishing a bit.  Not at all good though...

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Yeah, I don't think that Labour are sweating that much over losing a deposit in Richmond, especially in a close by-election where the other major parties were all telling people to vote tactically in some way

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Twenty years ago was ruddy 1996; I don't think that it's fair to expect those numbers unless you have a very unpopular government.  Like the Labour result isn't great but come on, let's not over exaggerate how bad it is

[IceAgeComing]

The 2015 result was as follows:

Reed (Lab): 16,750 (42.3%)
Haraldsen (Con): 14,186 (35.8%)
Pye (UKIP): 6,148 (15.5%)
Gallagher (Lib Dem): 1,368 (3.5%)
Todd (Green): 1,179 (3.0%)

The Tories need a 3.3% swing to take the seat; the swing in 2015 was 1.3% from Labour to the Conservatives.  It is pretty marginal and its essential that Labour holds it - especially since the last time that Copeland (or Whitehaven, its predecessor) voted Tory was 1931 which is of symbolic value if nothing else. 

I don't know what the EU referendum result was for the constituency: considering that the election may well be around the time that the government wants to trigger Article 50 the EU may well be a key issue in the thing.  I'd guess that it'd be similar to the Council Area (62% Leave), could be wrong though. If the EU is important then it depends how it goes: public support is falling for the governments EU strategy and that may lead Tory voters to hemmorage votes to UKIP; while Labour seem to be annoying both sides - the Lib Dems should retain their deposit this time.  Other issues may well emerge especially since this is a marginal seat and Labour will not want to fight on Europe if they are able to avoid it; but that's not something that its easy to talk about.

[IceAgeComing]

Dunno if its really a coup that the Tories gain a seat that only needs a 3% swing - sure its not really a good sign for the government to be gaining seats during their term but its not like the Tories are suddenly competitive in somewhere like central Manchester or something...

Copeland/Whitehaven has been Labour held for a very long time but would have been lost at the 1983, 1987 and probably 1992 elections on present boundaries (it was expanded significantly for the 2010 election). Very polarised constituency; the Labour vote is anchored in the former West Cumberland coalfield and is solid, but the bulk of the rest of the seat (inc./esp. where senior Sellafield employees live) is staunchly Tory. Sellafield dominates the local economy.

Sure; but you can guarantee that the press will talk about "The Conservatives are now winning seats that they haven't won since 1931" if they gain the seat.

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although that list doesn't consider the boundary changes, although there aren't any proper notionals out for them yet and they'll probably change after the review stage