UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Cassius]

Apparently Labour's private polling shows them at something like 32% of the vote, which is of course absolutely woeful (it's 23 points lower than what they got in the general election). I would, however, apply the usual caveats about the general poor quality of constituency polling, and would also point out that we've been here before; last year, in Newark, everyone was fretting that the Tories could lose the seat to UKIP, who of course were fresh from their successes in the European elections. In the end, the Tories held the seat by 20 points. I think media types have a tendency to overrate UKIP's chances in things like this.

[Cassius]

The spin in the press seems to be "Labour win in spite of Corbyn" which is to be expected really.  What has the guy got to do in order to be credited with something?

Well given that Corbyn was apparently barely featured in the Labour campaign, which seemed to centre around its, admittedly very strong, local candidate (one who seems about as un-Corbyn as it's possible to be in the Labour party for that matter), I'm not entirely sure how this can be attributed to Corbyn in any way.

I basically think Labour's good performance and UKIP fizzling is down to three factors. Firstly, as I've already said, Labour ran a very good campaign in the seat with a good candidate; second, Labour strategised well in attempting, as it always does, to maximise the number of people voting by post, which always seems to favour Labour. Finally, UKIP, on spite of all the bluster surrounding their campaign, were too thinly stretched on the ground, and failed to get out a lot of the people who voted for them back in May. Indeed, I suspect that a lot of UKIP's voters this time round actually voted for the Conservatives in the general election, which would explain the (rather predictable) collapse in the Conservative vote.

[Cassius]

What seems a little eerie is how the Common death toll over the last few years has been so disproportionately concentrated amongst Labour party MP's.

[Cassius]

Zac Goldsmith... you stupid c**nt.

[Cassius]

I can't wait for the inevitable 'Labour holds on to Copeland and Stoke with increased majorities' type results... and for the sound of silence from the media clown car.