UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

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Following the sad death of Michael Meacher, a by-election will be held in Oldham West.

This will be the first test for Corbyn-led Labour and the staying power of UKIP - it is adjacent to Heywood and Middleton, the seat UKIP heavily targeted in a by-election last time (although Oldham has a significantly larger Asian population.

There is also the possibility of a by-election in Orkney and Shetland, which would be interesting.

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Some speculation that a Labour 'big name' may go for it - Balls, Alexander, Murphy etc. Probably nothing more than speculation.

If that happens they deserve to lose.

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Well I'm not sure UKIP are that good at zeroing in on random local issues and making a big deal of them, like the old kings of the by-election the LIbDems. UKIP have always been interested in the big national issues of migration and sovereignty, they've never really done a campaign on potholes.

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That's a lot of J

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Ugh there goes my plan to open an Oldham branch of Mebyon Kernow.

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Everyone be prepared to laugh at this by-election for the HoL with an electorate of ... Three people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36084455

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oh wow, the 2010 Tory candidate.

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the Gorgeous Cat just posted on Twitter:

"Hmmm. A parliamentary by-election in Tooting. Interesting…”

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Christian Wolmar is also musing about entering.

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Polling day today in Tooting. The mood has been very muted for obvious reasons.

(Let's not talk about the tragic events of today till tomorrow)

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Witney MP will resign, citing wish to spend more time with his pigs.

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No Airport expansion, zilch? Like not even just no net expansion (e.g. close City for an expanded Heathrow etc.?)

This whole airport expansion deal confuses me. Especially as seemingly everybody was aware of the HeathrowHub proposal (i.e. expand the Northern runway), didn't point out anything explicitly wrong with it and then proceed with the very flawed Gatwick/third runway plans, anyway.

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Tories should run Mr Moat for throwback's sake

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Highest by election turnout since 1984 Enfield Southgate.

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Corbyn reminds me of a left-wing Ben Carson, tbh.

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Arguably it would be a bigger snub to Labour if they had ignored what is likely to be a big internal crisis to focus on internal tensions within a party with one MP.

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What exactly is Corbyn and his crowd hoping for at this point in time? I mean, it clearly ain't working; and if the polling figures Vileplume posted about the labour brand are correct, then he is doing some serious damage to the party long term.

Obviously, sticking D Milliband in charge isn't going to save things overnight, but Corbyn as at a point where he is even damaging the radical left with his incompetence.

Bring back the eds imo

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I'm almost starting to wonder if a pre-election primary for a "prime ministerial candidate" couldnt be a way to dilute the Corbynites.

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Election in Wales to replace Carl Sergeant as well. Safe Labour hold, obviously.

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Interestingly, Dan Jarvis doesn't seem to be resigning as MP, despite being elected as Sheffield regional mayor.

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My usual rule of thumb is that people who use the term Zionist outside of the direct context of Israel-Palestine are being anti semitic, because it feeds into the notion that Israel literally controls the actions of the US, the UK and other parts of the international community. The country is probably more powerful than most of its size in terms of lobbying power, but it isn't this Machiavellian power centre for the world elite that chooses leaders around the world like some imply. If anything, the US has far more control over Israeli politics and decisions than vice versa.

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Assuming both Brexit and the Tories both run candidates, I can't imagine the Lib Dems not winning - and by a substantial margin at that.

Plaid Cymru are signalling they may sit this race out.

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I don't buy by elections polls as a rule, but if I was to have made a prediction it would be close to that (although I'm thinking a bit lower for Labour and Brexit, higher for the Tories and Libs).

Also the Tory MP for the marginal seat of Dover, Charlie Elphicke, has just been charged with multiple counts of sexual assault. At this point, I imagine a snap election is going to preempt the potential process of conviction/recall/by-election campaign, but Dover would be a hugely symbolic by-election amidst the Brexit chaos, for obvious reasons and could potentially be won by the Tories, Labour or Brexit.

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Jared O'Mara is thinking of resigning after the summer recess, according to the Sheffield Star.

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Shetland election happened btw:

Lib Dems - 48%
SNP - 32%
Independent (local councilor for the North Isles) - 11%

Everyone else sub-threshold, including an amusingly awful 1% for Labour. The fall in the Lib Dem vote on the face of it was pretty bad - 20% - but they lost their entrenched incumbent, which is always a big deal in these kind of seats and the SNP threw the kitchen sink at this poll.