UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Clyde1998]

Some speculation that a Labour 'big name' may go for it - Balls, Alexander, Murphy etc. Probably nothing more than speculation.

Alexander and Murphy will probably be on the Labour regional list for the Scottish election, ahead of all of the ones that currently hold seats.

[Clyde1998]

Re Orkney & Shetland, I'm not a lawyer, but I'd be a little surprised if the courts found against Carmichael.  The argument that what he did was covered by the law in question seems rather contrived.

There's enough evidence that the case wasn't thrown out; they're back in court on the 9th November. There's a number of issues raised - and if one accusation fails, the entire case collapses - I believe.

[Clyde1998]

UKIP are a mere 6/1 to gain this seat:


Remember this is the seat where Nick Griffin got 16% of the vote in 2001 (although that election did occur just after the Oldham Riots) - and the BNP never lost their deposit here. Most previous BNP voters would have voted UKIP in May. A low turnout may help UKIP here - as their voters may be more likely to turnout than Labour voters, and Conservative voters may vote tactically to prevent Labour from winning this seat. Additionally, the upcoming referendum may see anti-EU voters move toward UKIP (if they haven't already) - as the others all support the EU. This will be interesting.

[Clyde1998]

But the EU referendum has hardly grabbed the publics imagination

Not yet; the referendum bill hasn't passed through Parliament - so the main campaigns haven't really begun.

UKIPs poll ratings are significantly lower than a year ago.

UKIP will be stronger in by-elections - as local issues become more important than national issues. People's votes won't affect who becomes the Government in a by-election, also.

[Clyde1998]

An 120% postal vote turnout will see Labour through. No need to worry

They won't know the turnout, after they lose the voter list.

[Clyde1998]

Obviously the polls have closed and the magical counting process is underway. Very, very early rumours (which may not be exactly accurate) suggest that Labour think they've won but are jittery about turnout/the size of the majority.

Rumours are UKIP have ran Labour close on the day, but Labour have won the postal vote by a landslide; Labour expected to be around 50%.

[Clyde1998]

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-12-03/farage-ukip-may-lose-election-as-voters-dont-speak-english/
Ukip is likely to lose the Oldham West and Royston by-election because many voters in the area "do not speak English", Nigel Farage has told ITV News.

No comment required for that...

[Clyde1998]

Obviously the polls have closed and the magical counting process is underway. Very, very early rumours (which may not be exactly accurate) suggest that Labour think they've won but are jittery about turnout/the size of the majority.

Rumours are UKIP have ran Labour close on the day, but Labour have won the postal vote by a landslide; Labour expected to be around 50%.

In fact Labour List is suggesting that Labour have won the postal votes by 55% to 30% over UKIP.

Declartion expected around 2am.

[Clyde1998]

@faisalislam: Bigger than expected turnout at #oldhamwest of 40.26%
@faisalislam: Total of 27795 electors in #OldhamWest

[Clyde1998]

The Guardian appear to be reporting Labour at 62%, UKIP at 23%. Crushing win if this is true.

[Clyde1998]

On the Northern Isles issue: http://www.scotland-judiciary.org.uk/9/1534/Timothy-Morrison-and-others-v-Alistair-Carmichael-MP-and-Alistair-Buchan

A petition challenging the election of Alistair Carmichael as Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland has been refused after judges ruled it had not been proved beyond reasonable doubt that he had committed an “illegal practice”.

The decision could be appealed, however.

[Clyde1998]

On the Northern Isles issue: http://www.scotland-judiciary.org.uk/9/1534/Timothy-Morrison-and-others-v-Alistair-Carmichael-MP-and-Alistair-Buchan

A petition challenging the election of Alistair Carmichael as Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland has been refused after judges ruled it had not been proved beyond reasonable doubt that he had committed an “illegal practice”.

The decision could be appealed, however.

The petitioners won two of the three points, and lost the third on a technicality:

In the ruling, Lady Paton said Mr Carmichael had told a "blatant lie" in the Channel 4 interview - but that section 106 of the Representation of the People Act did not apply to lies in general.

"It applies only to lies in relation to the personal character or conduct of a candidate made before or during an election for the purpose of affecting that candidate's return," she said.

The judges said they had been left with a "reasonable doubt" about whether the lie could be characterised as a false statement of fact "in relation to [his] personal character or conduct"

Had the judges been without "reasonable doubt", the election result in Orkney and Shetland would've been void and a by-election would've had to have been held.

[Clyde1998]

They're always in safe Labour seats aren't they?

Both are very safe Labour seats - UKIP require a 39.4% swing to gain the Sheffield seat. Ogmore could throw up something interesting, given that it's on the same day as the Welsh Assembly election though - the Conservatives require a 34.4% swing to gain the Westminster seat and Plaid need a 40.3% swing to gain the equivalent Welsh Assembly seat - unless something cataclysmic happens to Labour in the Welsh election campaign they should retain the seat.

[Clyde1998]

That's still less than 1% of the total. Actually less die than used to, largely because Westminster is less alcohol-centric these days.

There were 8 deaths in the 2005-10 Parliament and only 4 in the 2001-5 Parliament. A lot more common before that.

Could that partially be because MPs are getting younger, on average?

[Clyde1998]

Goes to show how ridiculous the House of Lords is.

[Clyde1998]

I honestly don't see them actually gaining any votes though: there's been little to no shift in the polls since 2015, and any shift has been negative for both the SNP and Labour and towards the Conservatives (not that the latter are at all relevant anywhere in Glasgow).  I mean even a modest swing towards them (for by-election standards, no higher than 5%) would be good for them and probably the best I could see them doing unless Labour pick their best candidate and the SNP pick Hitler, or unless McGarry decides to do something dumb like resign and stand in the by-election as an independent - she wouldn't win or do particularly well, but it'd split the SNP vote.

The most recent poll for Westminster in Scotland (9-15 Sep; Panelbase) shows SNP 47% (-3 on 2015); Con 24% (+9); Lab 16% (-8); Lib 5% (-3); UKIP 4% (+2); Grn 3% (+2).

Extrapolating the nation results for the Glasgow East, my calculations give me:
SNP 52.4 (-4.5)
Lab 24.3 (-8.1)
Con 13.3 (+7.3)
UKIP 4.4 (+1.8)
Lib 3.7 (+3.0)
Grn 2.0 (+0.9)
Oth 0.0 (-0.5)

Basically, the SNP would have a large lead in that seat, should a by-election occur, at the beginning of the campaign.

[Clyde1998]

I've been reading that the Lib-Dems are getting rather excited about the campaign; and whilst not expecting to win are expecting to cut Labour's majority down to 5,000-6,000.

Given the likely level of turnout and Galloway's candidacy, a majority in that ballpark wouldn't be a disaster.

A by-election in Liverpool Walton is likely to be held soon, is it not? The Lib Dems would be more than happy to repeat their performance in the last one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Walton_by-election,_1991

Leigh is another likely one. This is assuming that huge upsets aren't produced in the mayoral elections.

Mayors aren't required to resign as an MP following their election; Livingstone remained an MP until the end of his term - albeit it was only for a year. (Wasn't there a Lib Dem that was a councillor and an MP at the same time too?)

I would expect Labour to hold on to both seats, especially Liverpool Walton, in the event that there are by-elections though.

The Irrelevant Johnny Disco?

Nowhere near as good as Nick the Flying Brick or Sir Oink-A-Lot.

[Clyde1998]

No one seems to have a clue if the Manchester Gorton by-election will go ahead or not.

Sky have just said that it won't go ahead, as Parliament should be dissolved by then.

[Clyde1998]

Not a UK Parliamentary by-election, but a Scottish Parliamentary by-election (I didn't want to create a separate thread for it).

Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire will be holding a by-election on 8th June, as the sitting MSP is running for the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk seat in the General Election for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives won this seat in 2016 with a 55.2% vote share, compared to 31.8% for the SNP, 7.7% for the Lib Dems and 5.3% for Labour. It seems very unlikely that anyone other than the Tories will win this seat, especially due to the by-election coinciding with the General Election - which will keep turnout high.