UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Phony Moderate]

Some speculation that a Labour 'big name' may go for it - Balls, Alexander, Murphy etc. Probably nothing more than speculation.

[Phony Moderate]

And The Mail on Sunday is stirring things up by reporting that several frontbenchers are preparing to launch an immediate coup if Oldham is lost.

[Phony Moderate]

Probably not.

Btw, remember the days when questionable rumours about by-elections were based around the Lib Dems', rather than UKIP's, prospects?

[Phony Moderate]

One can draw too many conclusions from by-elections; remember that Miliband increased the Labour vote share by 10% in his first three.

The big test remains May next year.

And the Tories dropped by 11% in Cameron's first by-election.

[Phony Moderate]

They're always in safe Labour seats aren't they?

[Phony Moderate]

Historically speaking, 15 years is a pathetically short period of parliamentary service for a British prime minister.

[Phony Moderate]

Those farmyard animals that give us bacon I believe.

[Phony Moderate]

Tracy Brabin (who was appeared in and written for various television soaps and who is from Batley originally)

A poor man's Glenda Jackson then?

[Phony Moderate]

Probably even lower than Phil Woolas actually.

[Phony Moderate]

Today's the day. Polls of course close at 10PM our time and then a load of dubious Twitter rumours (now something of a tradition for by-election nights) will follow.

If the Lib Dems pull Witney off then please, for the sake of your organs, don't take a swig every time you hear/read the word 'Orpington' over the next 24 hours.

[Phony Moderate]

Sorry if I'm posting this in the wrong place, but it seems like the bottom might be falling out for Labour, at least for the 2020 election:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-mays-tories-open-up-18-point-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-a7370246.html

Labour's share of the vote is actually about the same as it got in 2015 - the large Tory lead is mostly due to many UKIP voters switching to the Tories (which would of course lead to seat losses for Labour anyway).  

[Phony Moderate]

They've been doing it in council by-elections for over a year now o/c.

[Phony Moderate]

I think that they will carry on doing well in areas like this, but I don't think we'll see them (credibly) trying to outflank Labour from the left in urban seats any time soon.

You can't really put anything past the Lib Dems...

[Phony Moderate]

They won't- but the Greens and Labour should stand down

Why? As a working-class person I couldn't care less whether the Tories or the Lib Dems win. It's a battle between cancer and dementia.

[Phony Moderate]

Richmond Park was today. Polls closed within the past hour.

The predictable "Vote Lib Dem to stop Hard Brexit" line going around; of course if this were Cambridge it'd be "Vote Lib Dem to stop the Hard Left", and if this were Bermondsey it'd be...

[Phony Moderate]

Word is the Lib Dems are ahead.

[Phony Moderate]

Highest by election turnout since 1984 Enfield Southgate.

Crewe & Nantwich in 2008 was higher.

I'm sure Wirral West just before the 1997 general election was incredibly high - like over 70%. I believe Tony Benn's victory at Chesterfield in 1984 was the last time a by-election had a higher turnout than at the previous GE.

The BBC has done a write-up on ten notable by-elections from the past: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38167746

[Phony Moderate]

British activity on this board has really dried up compared to the days of Brown.

Sleaford and North Hykeham result:

Caroline Johnson: (Conservatives) - 17,570
Victoria Ayling: (UKIP) - 4,426
Ross Pepper: (Liberal Democrats) - 3,606
Jim Clarke: (Labour) - 3,363
Marianne Overton: (Lincolnshire Independent) - 2,892
Sarah Stock: (Independent) - 462
The Iconic Arty-Pole: (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 200
Paul Coyne: (Independent) - 186
Mark Suffield: (Independent) - 74
David Bishop: (Bus Pass Elvis Party) - 55

[Phony Moderate]

This was a no-hoper for Labour, but coming fourth here is just embarrassing. If Corbyn is so wonderful, why aren't people voting for him?

Because most people don't live in Islington North and Islington North probably isn't going to vote until 2020 anyway.

[Phony Moderate]

The Labour vote in this seat was primarily from the white working class parts of Sleaford and we are perhaps seeing the beginning of the collapse of the WWC Labour vote.

Don't know why the word 'white' is included in the context of this seat. I don't know the exact census figures but I doubt there's more than about seven non-white people in it.

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And the same people have also claimed to represent the 'liberal, progressive' voice of Labour, yet they are now adopting quasi-UKIP rhetoric because muh public mood.  Kendall neither bothers nor surprises me as much as she made noises in that direction during her leadership campaign and seems to genuinely believe the nonsense she spews, but people like Kinnock, Umunna etc...f**k them. I actually don't disagree that immigration needs controls or whatever, but ffs some of the Progress lot give the impression that would happily take a photo op with the Westboro Baptist Church if the mood of the electorate turned homophobic for some reason - as opposed to, you know, standing up for 'liberal, progressive' values.

Also has Umunna managed to avoid 'the trash' recently?

[Phony Moderate]

What an utterly socialistic move!!

[Phony Moderate]

Stoke-on-Trent as a whole voted 69.4%-30.6% to Leave in the referendum.

Hunt was widely seen as an unpopular imposition of a Metropolitan Elite candidate on an industrial Midlands seat, so Labour would be best advised to pick someone local for this one

Or if they want to combine 'local' with 'celebrity' (Hunt was vaguely the latter) they could go for one of the many great professional darts players that Stoke has produced. Off the top of my head three world champions (Phil Taylor, Adrian Lewis and Ted Hankey) originate from there, as well as the former world finalist Andy Hamilton, and I believe Eric Bristow lived there for many years (possibly still does).

There was actually an MP's darts championship that took place at the Ally Pally last month (in conjunction with the actual world championship)...neither of the competitors was Labour (it was some SNPer and a Tory from Cornwall IIRC).

[Phony Moderate]

Owen Smith managed to take a more dovish stance on terrorism than Jeremy Corbyn...

[Phony Moderate]

As much hate as Corbyn receives (& I admit he has faults), the guy is a decent guy, as in very dignified even in attacking & he has got a really good quality voice. The other guy Owen looked a complete joke next to him!

He is a pathetic Arsenal loving Muppet thought. This football analogy has some substantive point: his brand of Labour is to national politics what Arsenal and their comedy support is to English football, a detached ridiculous London phenomena no one can see back in power.

Corbyn a London phenomena? I believe his support in the leadership elections was generally stronger outside of London than within it and he's hated (or at least seen as a complete joke) by the London media. Blairites (particularly a certain MP who is about to quit Parliament) are surely more metropolitan than Corbyn but they're supposedly more electable than him.

I'd suggest that talk about the 'metropolitan elite' is, generally speaking, a very metropolitan thing in itself.

[Phony Moderate]

Saw some awful BBC report about Stoke the other day. They featured some guy who they described as a "rare breed - a Remain voter in Stoke". Actually about 1 in 3 voters in Stoke backed Remain so that's a real stretch of the term 'rare breed', just as it would be to describe a Leave voter in Richmond Park as a 'rare breed'.

Anyhow, what chance that Farage returns to the leadership within the next week?