UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[YL]

Re Orkney & Shetland, I'm not a lawyer, but I'd be a little surprised if the courts found against Carmichael.  The argument that what he did was covered by the law in question seems rather contrived.

[YL]

Reports suggest that the writ will be moved for Oldham West & Royton tomorrow, with polling day on 3 December.  Labour will select their candidate on Thursday; one name being mentioned is Jim McMahon, leader of Oldham council.

[YL]

Oldham West & Royton candidates (so far):
LAB: Jim McMahon
UKIP: John Bickley
CON: James Daly
LDEM: Jane Brophy

Apparently we now also have Simeon Hart (Green) and "Sir Oink-a-Lot" (that party who are a bit more sensible than UKIPOMRLP).

Nominations close at 4pm today.

[YL]

... and there are indeed just those six candidates.

Sir Oink A-LOT (Raving Loony)
John BICKLEY (UKIP)
Jane BROPHY (Lib Dem)
James DALY (Con)
Simeon HART (Green)
Jim MCMAHON (Lab)

http://www.oldham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3886/statment_of_persons_nominated_notice_of_poll_and_situation_of_polling_stations_oldham_west_and_royton_constituency

[YL]

The thing is, Labour should not even be close in a seat like this, especially in a by-election under a Tory government.

Well, yes, if it actually is close (or heaven forbid if UKIP actually win) it will be a very poor result, but let's not judge it in advance.

Labour actually did rather well here in May, but so did UKIP.  Given the likely poor turnout and Conservatives tactically voting for UKIP the thing to watch is Labour's vote share, not the majority (unless they actually lose).  For comparison, Labour got 54.8% in May (better than 2001!) and 45.5% in 2010.  The latter might actually be uncomfortably close if the Tories are really squeezed.

[YL]

You would hope that some people in the media are feeling a little bit embarrassed.

[YL]

The official figures (on Oldham Council's website) are

McMahon (Lab) 17,209 (62.1%)
Bickley (UKIP) 6,487 (23.4%)
Daly (Con) 2,596 (9.4%)
Brophy (Lib Dem) 1,024 (3.7%)
Hart (Green) 249 (0.9%)
A-Lot (OMRLP) 141 (0.5%)

Changes: Lab +7.3, UKIP +2.8, Con -9.6, LD no change, Green -1.0

[YL]

Labour shortlist for Ogmore:

Chris Elmore - a councillor in Barry, member of GMB and the Co-op Party, Labour candidate for the Vale of Glamorgan at the last General Election.

Christine Gwyther - based in Pembrokeshire; former AM for Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire (1999-2007), Minister of Agriculture 1999-2000, Labour candidate for Dyfed-Powys Police Commissioner 2012

Geraint Hopkins - local councillor (Llanharan ward in RCT borough) and currently on the council cabinet in RCT. Member of Unison. One time Deal Or No Deal contestant.

Alex Owen - local councillor (Penprysg ward in Bridgend borough). Member of the FBU.

So all from South Wales and no parachuted Corbyn cronies.  Certain people will be disappointed.

I understand that the expectation is that Irranca-Davies is going to resign from the Commons be appointed Steward of the Manor of Northstead in time for this by-election to happen together with lots of other elections (including the Welsh Assembly election he's standing in) on 5 May.

Ogmore is one of those constituency names you have to be a bit of a geography geek to know where it is: it's named after the River Ogmore/Afon Ogwr and is a bit reminiscent of Strangford in that this place isn't in the constituency, nor is this one, and nor is this castle.

What actually is in the constituency is the valleys in the northern part of Bridgend county borough, north of the town of Bridgend itself, including the upper Ogmore/Ogwr itself, the Garw and the Llynfi.  It also contains a bit of south-western Rhondda-Cynon-Taff.  The largest town is Maesteg, in the Llynfi valley.  As far as I know it's a fairly typical Valleys seat, and certainly votes like one.  The constituency of the same name before 1983 apparently contained Bridgend town, so probably shouldn't be compared with this one.  No doubt Al can give a better profile than I can.

[YL]

Labour shortlist for Ogmore:

Chris Elmore - a councillor in Barry, member of GMB and the Co-op Party, Labour candidate for the Vale of Glamorgan at the last General Election.

Christine Gwyther - based in Pembrokeshire; former AM for Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire (1999-2007), Minister of Agriculture 1999-2000, Labour candidate for Dyfed-Powys Police Commissioner 2012

Geraint Hopkins - local councillor (Llanharan ward in RCT borough) and currently on the council cabinet in RCT. Member of Unison. One time Deal Or No Deal contestant.

Alex Owen - local councillor (Penprysg ward in Bridgend borough). Member of the FBU.

Elmore won the selection.

[YL]

I get the impression that Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough is now likely to be on 5 May with all the other elections (including the Ogmore by-election as well).

Labour are selecting at the beginning of March.  Candidates for the Labour nomination include Gill Furniss, who is Harry Harpham's widow and a councillor for Southey ward in the constituency, Oliver Coppard, who cam fairly close to beating Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam [1] in 2015, and Stephen Hutchins, a Sheffield-trained junior doctor and Chesterfield councillor.  EDIT: add Solomon Curtis, who stood in 2015 in Wealden.

The name might suggest that the constituency is a merger of the cores of the old Sheffield Brightside and Sheffield Hillsborough constituencies.  This isn't really the case: it's really an expanded Sheffield Brightside which took on the Hillsborough area (but not the rest of the constituency) when Sheffield Hillsborough was dismembered by the last boundary review [2].  It consists of five wards of Sheffield City Council: Burngreave, Firth Park, Hillsborough, Shiregreen & Brightside, and Southey.

A fairly large part of the consituency (dominating Southey, Firth Park and Shiregreen & Brightside wards) is made up of current or former council housing in so-called "cottage estates", low density, low rise housing built in a period starting as early as 1907 and continuing to just after the Second World War.  Like many large areas of council housing, these areas suffered a lot from the problems of the 1980s and still have high unemployment, high deprivation levels and low educational attainment; they also have low diversity.  Media stereotypes suggest UKIP do well in places like this, and they have indeed had some high vote shares, though they've never won a council seat in the constituency.

To the south of the cottage estates, dominating Burngreave ward and extending into the south and east of Firth Park and Shiregreen & Brightside, is an area which was already largely urbanised by the First World War.  This is something of a classic inner city area, with many of the problems of such areas, including, again, high deprivation levels.  It has a mixture of surviving Victorian housing (ranging from bylaw terraces to some quite big villas) and 1960s/70s council estates built in slum clearance areas.  (One of the 1960s estates has now been cleared itself.)  It's much more ethnically diverse than the cottage estates: when immigrants come to Sheffield they quite often settle in Burngreave and neighbouring areas, as with the recent Roma migration from Slovakia.  Burngreave ward hasn't always been a Labour fortress, but it is at the moment and had the highest Labour share in the city in 2015.  The area also contains one of Sheffield's two large hospitals, the Northern General Hospital in Fir Vale.

Hillsborough, west of the rest of the constituency and best known for its football stadium, is generally a less deprived area with a more socially mixed population.  Much of the housing here is private; there are some council estates, but not on the scale of the areas to the east, and there are some more middle class bits.  Some "young professionals" priced out of areas to the south-west have moved here, attracted by the tram route into the city.  (If it were in the US, it'd be called a "streetcar suburb", and that still fits.)  Hillsborough is the only ward in the constituency to have elected non-Labour councillors on the current ward boundaries, voting Lib Dem in 2007 and 2008; if you go far enough back (and on different ward boundaries) it was relatively likely to vote Tory by Sheffield standards, remaining marginal into the 1970s.

[1] It should be pointed out that if you wanted to find two constituencies in the same city which are as different as possible, Sheffield Hallam and Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough would be a reasonable choice.

[2] The constituency which the largest part of Sheffield Hillsborough ended up in is actually Penistone & Stocksbridge.

[YL]

Labour shortlist is...

Gill Furniss (councillor for Southey ward and Harpham's widow), Jayne Dunn (councillor for Broomhill ward, which is in the Broomhill constituency), Jayne Lim (a doctor and Fabian Society member from London).

You mean in the Central constituency o/c.

I'm a bit surprised Oliver Coppard didn't make the list.  However, I thought Furniss was favourite as soon as her candidacy was announced and I think that even more now.

[YL]

In totally surprising and earth-shattering news, Gill Furniss has been selected as the Labour candidate for Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough.

The Lib Dems have selected Ecclesall councillor Shaffaq Mohammed, and the Greens have selected Christine Gilligan Kubo, a lecturer at Sheffield Business School.

[YL]

Huw Irranca-Davies was appointed Steward of the Manor of Northstead yesterday, and writs were moved for both Ogmore and Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough today, with polling on 5 May.

Candidates announced so far (from Wikipedia):

Ogmore:

Janet Ellard (Lib Dem)
Chris Elmore (Lab)
Abi Thomas (Plaid)

SB&H:

Gill Furniss (Lab) - Sheffield councillor (Southey ward) and Harpham's widow
Christine Gilligan Kubo (Green) - candidate in 2015
Stevie Manion (Yorkshire First)
Shaffaq Mohammed (Lib Dem) - Sheffield councillor (Ecclesall ward) and former leader of the Lib Dem group
Spencer Pitfield (Con) - contested Sheffield Hallam in 2005 and Penistone & Stocksbridge in 2010
Bobby Smith - a "fathers' rights" candidate who stood against Cameron in 2015
Steven Winstone (UKIP) - contested Sheffield South East in 2015

[YL]

Both May by-elections have relatively few candidates.

Sheffield B&H: 7 candidates

Gill Furniss (Lab)
Christine Gilligan Kubo (Green)
Stevie Manion (Yorkshire First)
Shaffaq Mohammed (Lib Dem)
Spencer Pitfield (Con)
Bobby Smith (Give Me Back Elmo)
Steven Winstone (UKIP)

Ogmore: 5 candidates

Glenda Davies (UKIP)
Janet Ellard (Lib Dem)
Christopher Elmore (Lab)
Abi Thomas (Plaid)
Alex Williams (Con)

No OMRLP, Church of the Militant Elvis etc.

[YL]

Looks like these were so dull that no-one posted them overnight.

Sheffield B&H

Lab 14087 (62.5%, up 5.9)
UKIP 4497 (20.0%, down 2.1)
Lib Dem 1385 (6.1%, up 1.6)
Con 1267 (5.6%, down 5.4)
Green 938 (4.2%, down 0.1)
Yorks First 349 (1.5%)
Give me back Elmo 58 (0.2%)

Good to see the UKIP vote down on the GE and a decent Labour increase.  Bad result for the Tories in a no hope area, overtaken by the Lib Dems and not far off losing their deposit.

Ogmore

Lab 12383 (52.6%, down 0.3)
UKIP 3808 (16.2%, up 1.2)
Plaid 3683 (15.7%, up 5.6)
Con 2956 (12.6%, down 3.3)
Lib Dem 702 (3.0%, no change)

Underwhelming for Labour, I feel.  Not much else to say.

[YL]

The next by-election will presumably be Tooting, caused by the resignation of Sadiq Khan following his London win.  9 June is being talked about as a date.  Tooting is not a safe seat, but I would hope they would not lose it in a by-election when in opposition.

[YL]

Candidates for Tooting (from here[/url):

Rosena Allin-Khan (Lab) [1]
Des Coke (Christian People's Alliance)
Alexander Glassbrook (Lib Dem)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Zirwa Javaid (Independent) [2]
Elizabeth Jones (UKIP)
Ankit Love (One Love Party) [3]
Akbar Malik (Immigrants Political Party) [4]
Graham Moore (Eng Dem)
Esther Obiri-Darko (Green)
Zia Samadani (Independent) [5]
Smiley Smillie (Independent)
Bobby Smith (Give me back Elmo) [6]
Dan Watkins (Con) [7]

[1] Junior doctor.
[2] A quick Google finds out essentially nothing.
[3] Came last in the mayoral election.  Party has [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Love_Party]a Wikipedia page.
[4] New party who seem to be pretty much what you'd expect from the name.
[5] Someone of this name has an inactive Twitter feed and is described there as "Chairperson of British Economic Forum & Chairperson of Taleem Charity".
[6] Smith fought Witney at the General Election and the Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough by-election.
[7] Fought the seat at the General Election.

[YL]

Regrettably, but not particularly surprisingly, "Liberty GB", an Islamophobic right-wing splinter party, have announced that they intend to buck the trend set by the Tories and contest Batley & Spen.

(The Greens, UKIP and the Lib Dems have all followed the Tories and said they won't, AIUI.)

[YL]

14 candidates for Witney

Emilia Arno (One Love Party)
Dickie Bird (UKIP) [1]
David Bishop (Bus Pass Elvis)
Robert Courts (Con)
Duncan Enright (Lab)
Mad Hatter (OMRLP)
Lord Toby Jug (Eccentric Party)
Adam Knight (Independent)
Elizabeth Leffman (Lib Dem)
Winston McKenzie (Eng Dem)
Helen Salisbury (National Health Action)
Larry Sanders (Green)
Daniel Skidmore (Independent)
Nicholas Ward (Independent) [2]

[1] Not the cricket umpire.
[2] Anti-HS2

Eccentric Party vs. OMRLP vs. Bus Pass Elvis...  vs. Winston McKenzie

[YL]

10 candidates for Batley & Spen

Corbyn Anti (By Election Protest) [1]
Tracy Brabin (Lab)
Jack Buckby (No to terrorism, yes to Britain) [2]
Richard Edmonds (NF)
David Furness (BNP)
Therese Hirst (Eng Dem)
Waqas Ali Khan (Ind) [3]
Garry Kitchin (Ind)
Ankit Love (One Love)
Henry Mayhew (Independent)

[1] Registered description of something called "English Independence".  Yes, the candidate is using that name.
[2] Registered description of Liberty GB
[3] UKIP member and 2015 candidate in Shipley

You'd have thought that the fascists might be a bit embarrassed by this by-election, but apparently not.

[YL]

The electoral history of Batley & Spen runs as follows:

1983 Con 1.6, 1987, Con 2.3, 1992 Con 2.3, 1997 Lab 13.1, 2001 Lab 13.2, 2005 Lab 14.8, 2010 Lab 8.5, 2015 Lab 12.0

I think it reflects Elizabeth Peacock's personal vote more than any real change in the constituency but the different between those two numbers is strikingly small.

I realise the title for most disgusting leaflet delivered in a UK by-election is a heavily contested one but the one talked about in this article is a contender.

[YL]

It looks like Zac Goldsmith is about to resign as an MP over the Heathrow decision, triggering a Richmond Park by-election.

I don't think he's ever specified whether he'd actually stand in it, but it would make most sense if he did stand as an independent.  (It surely makes no sense for him to be an official Tory candidate, standing as the Government party's candidate to protest against a Government decision.)

Richmond Park was Lib Dem held from 1997 to 2010.

[YL]

Eight candidates for Richmond Park:

Zac Goldsmith, "Independent"
Howling Laud Hope, OMRLP
"Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir", One Love Party
Sarah Olney, Lib Dem
David Powell, no description
Dominic Stockford, Christian People's Alliance
Fiona Syms, Independent
Christian Wolmar, Labour

I think "Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir" is Ankit Love, that party's founder.

Fiona Syms was married to the Tory MP for Poole and is explicitly standing as an Independent Conservative; she says she'll apply to join the Tories if she wins.  She describes herself as "broadly pro-Heathrow".

I can't find anything about David Powell, not that I've tried very hard.

[YL]

10 candidates for Sleaford & North Hykeham

The Iconic Arty-Pole (OMRLP)
Victoria Ayling (UKIP)
David Bishop (Bus Pass Elvis)
Jim Clarke (Lab)
Paul Coyne (no description)
Caroline Johnson (Con)
Marianne Overton (Lincolnshire Independents)
Ross Pepper (Lib Dem)
Sarah Stock (Ind)
Mark Suffield (no description)

Overton has stood here before and saved her deposit in both 2010 and 2015.  Suffield is a North Kesteven councillor elected for the Lincolnshire Independents, and Coyne is a Sleaford town councillor who also appears to have been affiliated with them.  Stock is a hospital campaign independent who has been endorsed by the Greens.

[YL]

Richmond Park was today. Polls closed within the past hour.

The predictable "Vote Lib Dem to stop Hard Brexit" line going around; of course if this were Cambridge it'd be "Vote Lib Dem to stop the Hard Left", and if this were Bermondsey it'd be...

TBF it might be "Stop Hard Brexit" in Cambridge too.

I agree that the Lib Dems' campaigning is cynical -- and here in Hallam I've seen a lot of it -- but if they really have unseated Goldsmith -- and it's beginning to look that way -- I'll be delighted.