UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

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Most 'speculation' at this stage (i.e. the late incumbent has been dead for only a few days and his death was not widely expected) = political journalists neatly demonstrating why they deserve every bit of the contempt that sensible people hold them in.

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But the EU referendum has hardly grabbed the publics imagination and UKIPs poll ratings are significantly lower than a year ago.

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Longlist for Labour selection widely reported as being:

Mohammed Azam (former Oldham councillor)
Jane East (candidate in Colne Valley this year)
Abdul Jabbar (Oldham councillor)
Sabina Khan (Brent councillor)
Jim McMahon (Leader of Oldham council)
Sophie Taylor (Trafford councillor)
Chris Williamson (MP for Derby North 2005-10)

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Labour shortlist is...

Mohammed Azam (former borough councillor, used to be on the NEC, left-winger)
Jane East (candidate for Colne Valley at this years General Election; works for Christian Aid)
Jim McMahon (leader of Oldham Borough Council, is on the NEC and leads the Labour group on the LGA. Right-winger but not really a factionalist)
Chris Williamson (MP for Derby North 2010-15 and a former leader of Derby City Council. Left-winger).

There were rumours that Williamson was withdrawing, but they don't appear to be true.

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LibDems are running Jane Brophy, who is a longstanding activist in Trafford borough. UKIP are running John Bickley, because apparently no one else is allowed to stand for them in a North West by-election.

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Jim McMahon will be the Labour candidate: it is being reported that he took 59.6% on the first ballot with Azam winning almost all the remaining votes.

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Actually what the Torygraph article claims is:

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Trash.

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Does hilariously transparent mendacious 'journalism' that is as hilariously transparent and as palpably mendacious as that actually count as stirring things up though?

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A little bit of background on the constituency, which is a bit more complex than media reports (not that there have been many of these yet) suggest, largely because when journalists see terraced houses they make certain assumptions without ever bothering to check any of those irritating 'facts'...

The constituency covers the western half of Oldham town and some old mill towns that are now functionally Manchester suburbs (the largest are Royton and Chadderton). Oldham is a struggling postindustrial town and this seat includes the most rundown half of it (not that the half in Oldham East & Saddleworth is exactly...) which also happens to be the more multiethnic part; the seat thus has substantial Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities (note they do not form one block of people/the electorate and live in clearly defined areas. And there are still plenty of white people in West Oldham). Perhaps unsurprisingly Oldham itself is very much a traditional Labour town.

The other parts of the seat (which are fairly to very white) are more working class than not but are not unprosperous nor solidly proletarian and until only a few decades ago were strongholds of the very peculiar form of Working Class Toryism that used to be so common in South East Lancashire. There are ethnic and communal tensions in Oldham and surrounding towns (which manifested in race riots in 2001 which were followed by relative electoral success for the BNP). We can be fairly sure that turnout will be rather low and that much too much will be read into the result, whatever it happens to be.

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Obviously the polls have closed and the magical counting process is underway. Very, very early rumours (which may not be exactly accurate) suggest that Labour think they've won but are jittery about turnout/the size of the majority.

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Rumours are UKIP have ran Labour close on the day, but Labour have won the postal vote by a landslide; Labour expected to be around 50%.

Labour's usual by-election strategy (and this is true no matter the ethnic makeup of the seat) is to set a vague target in terms of raw votes and to try to get as many of those as possible locked in via postal ballots.

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A new rumour is that Labour may have increased its percentage on the GE.

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Rumours of a possible five figure majority...

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Paul Nuttall making a tit of himself on TV right now.

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Labour hold, 11k majority.

The moment the Labour vote total was read out; really sweet:

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Jim McMahon, Labour, 17,332, 62.2% (+7.5%)
John Bickley, UKIP, 6,487, 23.3% (+2.7%)
James Daly, Conservative, 2,596, 9.3% (+9.6%)
Jane Brophy, LibDem, 1,024, 3.7% (+-0%)
Simeon Hart, Green, 249, 0.9% (-1.0%)
Sir Oink A-Lot, OMRLP, 141, 0.5% (n/a)

Lab maj. 10,811 (38.9%)

edit: some confusion over exact figures (as often happens) but all will be clear in the morning. Percentages are correct I believe.

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A little bit of historical context is always good (sorry I didn't get round to this before the vote; for entirely positive reasons I'm busier than I was a few months ago) so here's some. This constituency has existed in some form since the 1950 General Election when the old two member Oldham borough constituency¹ was divided in two and the western part of the town paired with the large mill town/Manchester suburb of Chadderton to form Oldham West. Oldham West's first MP was Leslie Hale, a Leicestershire solicitor (and former Liberal Party member) who had been elected for the double member Oldham constituency in 1945. He held the seat with comfortable and growing majorities - as the ancient working class Tory vote in South East Lancashire began to disintegrate with the decline of the cotton industry and the prosperity it had brought - until he resigned for health reasons in 1968. By that time the Wilson government was extremely unpopular and New Zealand born Conservative Bruce Campbell² won the ensuing by-election on a massive swing. The defeated Labour candidate was Michael Meacher who won the seat back at the 1970 General Election. Boundary changes for the 1983 saw the removal of parts of inner Oldham (to the new Oldham Central & Royton seat; a strange bastard constituency of the kind the Boundary Commission was very keen on drawing that year for reasons known only to themselves) and their replacement by Failsworth (another large mill town-cum-Manchester suburb). The effect of this was to halve Meacher's majority going in to the 1983 General Election which in many other constituencies would have spelled trouble, but the swing in Oldham West turned out to be minuscule. The seat then continued on its merry road towards safety and was redrawn substantially again for the 1997 General Election, losing Failsworth to Ashton-under-Lyne but gaining parts of inner Oldham and the insular mill town of Royton³ from the abolished Oldham Central & Royton. Oldham was hit by race riots in 2001 and this had a grim electoral impact with Nick Griffin polling 16% for the BNP at that year's General Election to near universal horror. This proved to be a flash in the pan and the BNP were never to reach such heights in the area again. One odd consequence of that episode was that Meacher actually polled a higher share of the vote (with a bigger majority) in 2015 than in 2001.

Composition

1950: Oldham (pt: Coldhurst, Hollinwood, Werneth), Chadderton
1974: Oldham (pt: Coldhurst, Hollinwood, Werneth), Chadderton
1983: Oldham (pt: Hollinwood, Werneth), Chadderton, Failsworth
1997: Oldham (pt: Coldhurst, Hollinwood, Werneth), Chadderton, Royton
2010: Oldham (pt: Coldhurst, Hollinwood, Werneth), Chadderton, Royton

Majorities

1950 Lab 10.1, 1951 Lab 8.9, 1955 Lab 9.2, 1959 Lab 10.0, 1964 Lab 17.5, 1966 Lab 22.5, 1968b Con 12.9, 1970 Lab 5.0, 1974Feb Lab 17.0, 1974Oct Lab 23.2, 1979 Lab 17.0
1983 Lab 7.9, 1987 Lab 14.5, 1992 Lab 20.4
1997 Lab 35.4, 2001 Lab 33.5, 2005 Lab 27.8, 2010 Lab 21.8, 2015 Lab 34.2

Member of Parliament

Charles Leslie Hale (Labour) 1950-68, Keith Bruce Campbell (Conservative) 1968-70, Michael Hugh Meacher (Labour) 1970-2015, James 'Jim' Ignatius O'Rourke McMahon (Labour) 2015-

<sub>1. Notable members included William Cobbett (Liberal, 1832-35), Winston Churchill (Conservative then Liberal, 1900-06) and Duff Cooper (Conservative, 1924-29).
2. Who's post-parliamentary career as a Circuit Judge ended in farcical disgrace when he was convicted of smuggling in the 1980s.
3. Which had been part of the bizarrely shaped - an inverted horseshoe over Rochdale basically - Lancashire marginal of Heywood & Royton before 1983. Its MP from 1964 until 1983 was Joel Barnett of Barnett Formula fame.</sub>

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A few census figures...

Ethnicity & Etc.

White 70.1%, Asian 26.5%, Mixed 1.7%, Black 1.4%, Other 0.3%

Looking at the more detailed categories:

White, British 68.1%, Bangladeshi 13.6%, Pakistani 10.4%

No other group is exactly large. Oldham's sizeable Bangladeshi population is very unusual for a Northern industrial town.

Only 0.8% of the population was born in Eastern Europe, Oldham being rather less affected by the latest significant shift to England's ethnic makeup than previous ones.

Religious figures don't really tell you anything that the ethnic ones don't, so I won't bother.

Industry of Employment

Wholesale/Retail/etc 19.8%, Health/Social Work 13.3%, Manufacturing 11.5%, Education 8.9%, Construction 7.5%, Accommodation/Food Services 7.2%, Transport/Storage 6.1%, Public Administration/Defence 5.0%, Administration/Support Services 5.0%, Professional/Scientific/Technical 3.8%, Finance/Insurance 3.1%, Information/Communication 2.1%, Real Estate 1.4%, Utilities 1.1%, Primary Industries 0.1%, Other 3.7%

Wholesale/Retail is notably above average (typical for the Manchester region) as are Manufacturing and Accommodation/Food Services. The smaller private sector service categories are all notably below average. Other categories don't differ significantly from national averages.

Occupation Groups

Managerial Occupations 8.1%, Professional Occupations 11.5%, Associate Professional & Technical Occupations 10.1%, Administrative & Secretarial Occupations 11.7%, Skilled Trades 13.4%, Caring, Leisure & Other Service Occupations 10.4%, Sales & Customer Service Occupations 9.6%, Process, Plant & Machine Operatives 10.5%, Elementary Occupations 14.7%

Skilled Trades, Process Etc Operatives and Elementary Occupations are all notably above average. Managerial and APT are both notably below average; Professional Occupations are significantly below average. I should note that I don't particularly like some of these categories but they are indicative.

NS-SEC

Large Employers & Higher Managerial and Administrative Occupations 1.5%, Higher Professional Occupations 4.1%, Lower Administrative, Managerial and Professional Occupations 15.1%, Intermediate Occupations 12.7%, Small Employers & Own Account Workers 7.7%, Lower Supervisory & Technical Occupations 8.2%, Semi Routine Occupations 16.0%, Routine Occupations 15.7%, Never Worked/Long Term Unemployed 10.4%, Students 8.5%

The first three categories are all significantly below average, Intermediate is about average, Small Employers etc. is below average, Lower Supervisory etc. and Semi Routine are above average, Routine and Never etc. significantly above average, students about average. The NS-SEC thing has its issues but (again) is indicative.

Economic Activity

Economically Active and Employed 55.9% (Full Time Employed 34.8%, Part Time Employed 14.3%, Self Employed 6.8%), Economically Active and Unemployed 5.9%, Economically Active Full Time Students 3.1%, total Economically Active 65.0%
Retired 13.2%, Students 5.6%, Carers 6.6%, Long Term Sick or Disabled 6.2%, Other 3.3%, total Economically Inactive 35.0%

Economic activity rates are lower than the national average (about 70%) and it notable that despite that the percentage in part time employment is actually slightly higher. Caring/Sick rates are also higher ditto unemployment.

Housing

Let's look at tenure first:
 Owned Outright 29.2%, Mortgaged 33.8%, Social Rented 23.8%, Private Rented (Landlord/Letting Agency) 10.0%, Other Categories 3.1%

Both owner-occupier categories are around about average, social renting isn't massive but is quite a bit above average and private renting is below.

And how about the type of house?

Detached 10.0%, Semi Detached 35.2%, Terraced 40.9%, Purpose built Flats 12.8%, Converted Flats 0.4%, Commercial Building 0.6%, Caravan 0.01%

Terraced figure isn't far off twice the national average; Detached is half the national average. Semis a bit above average, Flats below.

Some Other Stuff

The proportion educated to at least Degree level is 16.4%; more than ten percentage points lower than the national average. The proportion with no qualification is 31.8%; this is more than ten percentage points higher.

The percentage of households in which English is not the primary language for anyone is 6.3%. The national average is 4.4%.

15.9% of the population has no passport; this is about average nationally but slightly below for the North West.

77.9% of the population reported themselves to be in good or very good health; this is slightly below the national average.

13.9% of the population is over the age of 65; lower than the national average. 16.4% are between the ages of 18 and 30, which is about average.

No one in the constituency claimed to have a Cornish identity.

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Failure to prove reasonable doubt is not a technicality.

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Labour shortlist for Ogmore:

Chris Elmore - a councillor in Barry, member of GMB and the Co-op Party, Labour candidate for the Vale of Glamorgan at the last General Election.

Christine Gwyther - based in Pembrokeshire; former AM for Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire (1999-2007), Minister of Agriculture 1999-2000, Labour candidate for Dyfed-Powys Police Commissioner 2012

Geraint Hopkins - local councillor (Llanharan ward in RCT borough) and currently on the council cabinet in RCT. Member of Unison. One time Deal Or No Deal contestant.

Alex Owen - local councillor (Penprysg ward in Bridgend borough). Member of the FBU.

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So all from South Wales and no parachuted Corbyn cronies.  Certain people will be disappointed.

Well, three from South Wales and one from Pembrokeshire (which is in the south of Wales but not South Wales). And two that are very local.

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Yes, and the area that is in RCT borough was in the Pontypridd constituency before 1983.* Ogmore is sort of like Rother Valley up your way in that there's been a seat of that name for a long time and the core of the seat has always been much the same but it really can't be considered to be the same seat...

_{*And is why it was rock solid despite said constituency extending all the way down to genepool Tory territory around Cowbridge.}

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Anyway there will (very regrettably) also be a by-election at Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough due to the death of Harry Harpham at the start of the month.

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So in PLP terms 'Right hold'.

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Labour shortlist is...

Gill Furniss (councillor for Southey ward and Harpham's widow), Jayne Dunn (councillor for Broomhill ward, which is in the Broomhill constituency), Jayne Lim (a doctor and Fabian Society member from London).

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In totally surprising and earth-shattering news, Gill Furniss has been selected as the Labour candidate for Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough.

I'm amazed.