OH-BGSU/Zogby: Marijuana legalization too close to call in Ohio

[MT Treasurer]

Issue 3 would create a monopoly for the commercial sale of marijuana in the Buckeye State.  When 782 likely November 2015 voters were asked their views, 44.4 percent said they support it, 42.9 percent oppose it, and 12.7 percent are undecided. Issue 3 remains too close to call when the sample is limited to “definite” November voters: 46 percent support legalization, 45 percent are opposed and 9 percent are unsure.

http://www.bgsu.edu/bgsupoll

[ElectionsGuy]

Ugh. The olds are going to ruin this streak.

[rpryor03]

Ugh. The olds are going to ruin this streak.

Not really. There's a good deal of people who would support this if it wasn't for the monopoly clause.

[King]

Enough polls, are people organizing to put this on the ballot?

This should be a ballot initiative in every Democratic/swing state in 2016.

[Nhoj]

The other factor besides the monopoly is that they are holding it this year.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Enough polls, are people organizing to put this on the ballot?

This should be a ballot initiative in every Democratic/swing state in 2016.

No way in Tennessee (a GOP state).  Constitutionally, there can only be ballot initiatives in governor's races presented as a constitutional amendment, and they have to get a supermajority (3/4) of congress to back them as well (in addition to a bare majority two years before).

[bagelman]

Ugh. The olds are going to ruin this streak.

Not really. There's a good deal of people who would support this if it wasn't for the monopoly clause.

Yep, this is why I'm voting against it.

Still, it's amazing how attitudes have changed about mary jane that a clearly flawed bill like this is able to reach such levels of support in an eastern state.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Enough polls, are people organizing to put this on the ballot?

This should be a ballot initiative in every Democratic/swing state in 2016.

Nevada has already confirmed it, and Arizona/California/Michigan/mass/maine/Missouri/Montana also have ballots filed, of varying likelihood of being placed on the 2016 ballot. Quite a few other states have Medical Marijuana initiatives as well.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Let's hope that Ohio stops the pot party that has already gone through four states.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Enough polls, are people organizing to put this on the ballot?

This should be a ballot initiative in every Democratic/swing state in 2016.

Nevada has already confirmed it, and Arizona/California/Michigan/mass/maine/Missouri/Montana also have ballots filed, of varying likelihood of being placed on the 2016 ballot. Quite a few other states have Medical Marijuana initiatives as well.

I thought the Michigan measure was withdrawn.

[TJ in Oregon]

My absentee vote against it is in the mail.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I could easily see this losing in Ohio, because it doesn't have as much of a libertarian streak as the western states that have already voted to legalize.  Plus there are a lot of religious/socon voters in the western part of the state.

[Bojack Horseman]

Can someone please explain what their problem with the monopoly clause is?

[King of the Uzbeks]

Can someone please explain what their problem with the monopoly clause is?

It essentaly gives all pot money to 10 sites.

[Gass3268]

Support for Marijuana Legalization back up to 58%

[bagelman]

Can someone please explain what their problem with the monopoly clause is?

It's crony capitalism. Pot is "legal" as long as you buy it from the crony legalized cartels. 

[TJ in Oregon]

Can someone please explain what their problem with the monopoly clause is?

It's crony capitalism. Pot is "legal" as long as you buy it from the crony legalized cartels. 

It also doesn't help their case any that the folks who own the plots of land where it would be grown are funding the ballot initiative.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd vote yes and then then hope people start organizing a later iniative to break up the monopoly.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I want to know if the anti-gerrymandering measure is ahead.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Ads against it are a joke.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Ads against it are a joke.

You've gotta admit that picture's pretty funny.

[Badger]

Marijuana initiatives tend to follow the same polling pattern as gay marriage initiatives did: The pro vote deteriorates from the start of campaigning , and undecideds break heavily for voting No.

Consequently , based on this poll, and another Akron U. poll last week that showed the vote tied at 46%, i predict yes finishes in the mid to low 40's, with an outside chance a "shy No" vote and unexpectedly low turnout makes it a total rout for the No side.

[Badger]

The other factor besides the monopoly is that they are holding it this year.

I wondered about this too. At first one would think not putting this on the ballot with next year's presidential race with higher turnout among youth and minorities was idiocy. Upon reconsideration i wondered if the yes campaign hoped their more dedicated supporters would ultimately overwhelm the low turnout of "regular" voters in an off-off-year election. There arguably are a number of non-regular voters who may lean Democrat/liberal but aren't prime pot legalization supporters. Think of stereotypical soccer moms too busy/disinterested to vote for township trustee races next week but will turn out next year for Hillary.

Considering the Yes vote organizers had no shortage of funds for polling and consultants to forecast turnout models, i wouldn't be shocked that this was their "crazy like a fox" plan all along. how well it'll work remains to be seen.

[Badger]

Ugh. The olds are going to ruin this streak.

Not really. There's a good deal of people who would support this if it wasn't for the monopoly clause.

This is very true, both according to polls and anecdotally. The state Greens actually came out against Issue 3 because of this. Sure, the Green Party is as anemic in OH as anywhere else, but judging from conversations my strongly pro-legalization neighbor has has with similarly-minded friends of his, it reflects a non-negligible share of marijuana supporters planning to vote No on 3 due to the monopoly provisions. That more than anything indicates why 3 likely won't pass.

As a side note, OH doesn't have medical marijuana like many states. I wonder if there's precedent for a state or municipality voting for outright legalization without first "experimenting" with medical marijuana? i doubt it, and if there is it's surely the exception to the rule. Which again, is another hint 3 won't pass.

[Badger]

I want to know if the anti-gerrymandering measure is ahead.

it almost certainly is, Bandit. there is literally no organized opposition. i can't even find a "No on Issue 1" website. The dems, GOP, and even the greens support it. i don't know of a single newspaper editorial against it. there's no nascient tea party/patriot opposition to my knowledge. it'd be shocked if it didn't pass.