IA/NH/SC-CBS/YouGov: Sanders leads NH, but Clinton leads IA and SC

[Mr. Morden]

New CBS/YouGov poll of IA, NH, and SC:

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/10/25/clinton-surges-early-states-carson-levels-trump-io/

[The Other Castro]

These look almost exactly the same as their last numbers, except with basically all of Biden going to Clinton and increasing her numbers by one Biden unit.

[YPestis25]

The Iowa and South Carolina numbers look reasonable, but those New Hampshire ones don't really lend any clarity to the situation there.

[Mr. Morden]

The age gap in all these states is enormous.  In Iowa for example…

voters age 18-29:
Sanders 76%
Clinton 21%

voters age 65+:
Clinton 52%
Sanders 22%
[with a whopping 22% undecided]

[Why]

T

The Iowa and South Carolina numbers look reasonable, but those New Hampshire ones don't really lend any clarity to the situation there.

Yeah, the polling in NH is all over the place. It could quite conceivably be a comfortable Clinton or a comfortable Sanders lead based on what we are seeing.

[weixiaobao]

Since post debate, Clinton won 3 NH polls.  Sanders won 3.  ROFL. 

[Mehmentum]

So...

Iowa: Small Clinton lead
South Carolina: Clinton domination
New Hampshire:

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So is Sanders getting literally all the white liberal Democrats in South Carolina? Because he always hovers around that number

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that these poll numbers are new record highs for Bernie in all 3 states.

[/]

Iowa doesn't look that bad. I wonder if Sanders will win any delegates in SC.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact:

In Iowa, Sanders has even closed the gap further with Clinton after the debate and with Biden out.

Average of the 3 recent IA polls: 48.3% Clinton, 41.3% Sanders (Clinton+7)

The average result is ironically the same result as that from Selzer/Bloomberg.

Average of the 3 late September polls: 38.7% Clinton, 27.0% Sanders, 17.0% Biden (Clinton+12)

...

Bottom line: Sanders gained 5% against Clinton in the past month.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sanders may win in Iowa or NH but he is too far down in SC and NV is set too and Clinton lesds there.

[DrScholl]

Interesting fact:

In Iowa, Sanders has even closed the gap further with Clinton after the debate and with Biden out.

Average of the 3 recent IA polls: 48.3% Clinton, 41.3% Sanders (Clinton+7)

The average result is ironically the same result as that from Selzer/Bloomberg.

Average of the 3 late September polls: 38.7% Clinton, 27.0% Sanders, 17.0% Biden (Clinton+12)

...

Bottom line: Sanders gained 5% against Clinton in the past month.

Oooh, yes, the Blaxicans are closing hard for Bernie! Whooohoo!

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact:

In Iowa, Sanders has even closed the gap further with Clinton after the debate and with Biden out.

Average of the 3 recent IA polls: 48.3% Clinton, 41.3% Sanders (Clinton+7)

The average result is ironically the same result as that from Selzer/Bloomberg.

Average of the 3 late September polls: 38.7% Clinton, 27.0% Sanders, 17.0% Biden (Clinton+12)

...

Bottom line: Sanders gained 5% against Clinton in the past month.

Oooh, yes, the Blaxicans are closing hard for Bernie! Whooohoo!

No, in the case of Iowa: the white people.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If Sanders can get more minority voters (which I think he eventually will) it will get tighter.

[Torie]

Let me know if and when Bernie starts cutting into the black and Hispanic vote. Until there is evidence of that, he's DOA. And I don't see how he's going to do that. Hillary is going full out to appeal/pander whatever you want to call it, with those constituencies.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cummings coming to Clinton's defense has all but solidiied her support from blacks. Julian & Joaquin Castro are shortlist contenders for VP. So NV & SC are her blue wall states

[Fusionmunster]

CBS/Yougov polls last month were terrible so Im going to assume this month there also terrible.

[Fusionmunster]

Interesting fact:

In Iowa, Sanders has even closed the gap further with Clinton after the debate and with Biden out.

Average of the 3 recent IA polls: 48.3% Clinton, 41.3% Sanders (Clinton+7)

The average result is ironically the same result as that from Selzer/Bloomberg.

Average of the 3 late September polls: 38.7% Clinton, 27.0% Sanders, 17.0% Biden (Clinton+12)

...

Bottom line: Sanders gained 5% against Clinton in the past month.

Going by Easerheads logic, we should only compare polling from the same firm. Hillary was down 10 points in Iowa last month according to YouGov, now she's up 3.

[IceSpear]

Wow, you know Hillary is surging when even YouGov shows her ahead in Iowa!

[Flake]

New Poll: Iowa President by YouGov on 2015-10-22

Summary:

Clinton:	46%
Sanders:	43%
Other:	4%
Undecided:	7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eraserhead]

Interesting fact:

In Iowa, Sanders has even closed the gap further with Clinton after the debate and with Biden out.

Average of the 3 recent IA polls: 48.3% Clinton, 41.3% Sanders (Clinton+7)

The average result is ironically the same result as that from Selzer/Bloomberg.

Average of the 3 late September polls: 38.7% Clinton, 27.0% Sanders, 17.0% Biden (Clinton+12)

...

Bottom line: Sanders gained 5% against Clinton in the past month.

Going by Easerheads logic, we should only compare polling from the same firm. Hillary was down 10 points in Iowa last month according to YouGov, now she's up 3.

Yes, these are probably better news for Clinton than they are for Sanders. Essentially they show almost all of the Biden people jumping to her in each state.

Overall, the polls still seem a little too pro-Bernie but less so than they did last time around.

So is Sanders getting literally all the white liberal Democrats in South Carolina? Because he always hovers around that number

He leads 51% to 44% among whites but gets crushed among blacks.

Iowa doesn't look that bad. I wonder if Sanders will win any delegates in SC.

If he gets 25% or more then he obviously will. There's a 15% threshold.

[HillOfANight]

Let me know if and when Bernie starts cutting into the black and Hispanic vote. Until there is evidence of that, he's DOA. And I don't see how he's going to do that. Hillary is going full out to appeal/pander whatever you want to call it, with those constituencies.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2015/10/22/bernie-i-wouldn-t-continue-obama-legacy.html
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/bernie-sanders-naive-obama-214222

I really doubt this asshole is going to gain traction with nonwhite voters.

[Bull Moose Base]

Let me know if and when Bernie starts cutting into the black and Hispanic vote. Until there is evidence of that, he's DOA. And I don't see how he's going to do that. Hillary is going full out to appeal/pander whatever you want to call it, with those constituencies.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2015/10/22/bernie-i-wouldn-t-continue-obama-legacy.html
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/bernie-sanders-naive-obama-214222

I really doubt this asshole is going to gain traction with nonwhite voters.

If Hillary Clinton is any guide, calling Obama naive is the exact assholish move that eventually wins over black voters.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sanders may win in Iowa or NH but he is too far down in SC and NV is set too and Clinton lesds there.

No one honestly has any idea what's going on in NV.