Carson now hold wide lead in Iowa as Trump collapses

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

As Carson is coalescing the Evangelicals around his campaign he surges past Donald Trump, do you think he is peaking too early? How do you interpret this?

Two polls came out today that had Carson at 31% and 32% respectively.

[The Mikado]

Collapses is way too strong a word for Trump in 2nd with ~20%.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Collapses is way too strong a word for Trump in 2nd with ~20%.

Gotta have those hyperboles though.

[RI]

The good thing about Carson is that he has zero appeal in a state like New Hampshire.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The good thing about Carson is that he has zero appeal in a state like New Hampshire.

Yet he's in 2nd and going up, is that zero appeal?

[weixiaobao]

I am wondering what exactly is the major factor that brought Trump down in Iowa?

We do know that it has to do with attack ads against him.  But it must have more to do with the slate of Carson's controversial comments especially the muslim president comment and liking everything to slavery.  

But those aren't on Trump's end.  Did Trump said something specific that brought him down?  Or people just don't buy how insincere he is trying to pose as a religious person.  

And did his contention with JEB over 9/11 and other foreign policies matters hurt him in Iowa?

I knew he losing touch with the GOP voters on these things.  Iraq was one thing.  But Afghanistan and Libya.  And as much as people criticize Bush, the GOP always defend him on Afghanistan and 9/11 and even Iraq war.

But overall, I still think it is Carson's controversial comments that brought him up.  

[Bull Moose Base]

I am wondering what exactly is the major factor that brought Trump down in Iowa?

We do know that it has to do with attack ads against him.  But it must have more to do with the slate of Carson's controversial comments especially the muslim president comment and liking everything to slavery.  

But those aren't on Trump's end.  Did you said something specific that brought him down?  Or people just don't buy how insincere he is trying to pose as a religious person.  

And did his contention with JEB over 9/11 and other foreign policies matters hurt him in Iowa?

I knew he losing touch with the GOP voters on these things.  Iraq was one thing.  But Afghanistan and Libya.  And as much as people criticize Bush, the GOP always defend him on Afghanistan and 9/11 and even Iraq war.

But overall, I still think it is Carson's controversial comments that brought him up. 

Definitely this. Carson beat Trump at his own game plus he's more Christian to boot. Look for some doozies from Cruz and Huckabee in the debate.

[dudeabides]

I think when Iowans look at Ben Carson, they see a good-natured man who cares about the country. When they look at Donald Trump, they see an elitist who couldn't care less about the concerns of ordinary people. Iowa is not known for it's wealth in dollars, and Trump's attitude might not sell so well in the midwest long term.

[King]

I think when Iowans look at Ben Carson, they see a good-natured man who cares about the country. When they look at Donald Trump, they see an elitist who couldn't care less about the concerns of ordinary people. Iowa is not known for it's wealth in dollars, and Trump's attitude might not sell so well in the midwest long term.

And when they look at Jeb Bush they still see a LOW ENERGY LOSER.

[President Johnson]

Well he doesn't collapse. However, I don't think losing Iowa would hurt The Donald; he has big leads in almost every other state.

If he wins SC and NH he has a good chance to remain in the race for the big states. And, frankly, Trump will likely defeat Carson in big states like NY and CA (probably TX) easily.

[mencken]

Not necessarily a good thing from the anti-Trump forces' perspective. Whereas such a puncture to Trump's ego might have been fatal if it occured at or shortly before caucus day, Trump now has three months to dismiss Iowa as a bunch of hick corn farmers while focusing on New Hampshire and South Carolina. Plus, now the Iowa frontrunner is a social conservative with little to no economic policy, and the CfG-backed candidates (Cruz and Rubio) are going to have to expend energy trying to dislodge Carson from his perch. We've seen this show where a polite social conservative wins Iowa, a bombastic liberal wins New Hampshire, and the CfG-backed candidates try to recover momentum by flooding the Florida airwaves. Spoiler alert: it does not end well for the CfG-backed candidates.

[pikachu]

Considering who the last two winners of the state were, I'd say the current polling situation has more to do with Carson than it does with Trump.

[Likely Voter]

It is actually possible that the $1M Club for Growth spent on ads in IA are working. Trump hasn't campaigned much in IA and isn't doing any paid TV. Also Carson is spending money on TV.

The results in IA will likely encourage establishment funded outside groups to put money into anti-Trump TV spends in other states, something that has been rumored for a long time but hasn't happened yet.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This was covered a week ago by Politico:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Believe it or not, Ben Carson apparently has the best ground game in Iowa.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump presumption as the nominee angered voters and voters want a clear choice, so now they have it with Carson.

[Skye]

I think when Iowans look at Ben Carson, they see a good-natured man who cares about the country. When they look at Donald Trump, they see an elitist who couldn't care less about the concerns of ordinary people. Iowa is not known for it's wealth in dollars, and Trump's attitude might not sell so well in the midwest long term.

Though they didn't seem to think that two weeks ago.

[I support Sanders]

I'm not surprised, and I don't see this as meaning anything. Huckabee won Iowa in 2008, and Santorum won Iowa in 2012. Carson, Cruz, Huckabee, Santorum, or Jindal will probably win Iowa. Trump isn't finished yet, and his campaign certainly hasn't "collapsed."

[Lief 🗽]

Good, good. Iowa is a poison pill for the Republican primaries. Just ask Santorum and Huckabee. TRUMP should stay as far away from this corn-filled hellhole as possible.

[DINGO Joe]

Trump should respond to the latest polls by smashing a bunch of canned hams.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Good, good. Iowa is a poison pill for the Republican primaries. Just ask Santorum and Huckabee. TRUMP should stay as far away from this corn-filled hellhole as possible.

Imagine if the first primary was held in Mississippi.

[Lyin' Steve]

This is good for Trump.  Now all the candidates focused on winning Iowa (all of them except Jeb basically) will switch their focus to attacking Carson, and Trump gets to do whatever he wants while they destroy his main rival.

Also Trump's numbers aren't exactly collapsing.  Carson is almost exclusively focused on Iowa and he has a giant operation there, it's not a big surprise that he's running away with it right now.

[Badger]

Good, good. Iowa is a poison pill for the Republican primaries. Just ask Santorum and Huckabee. TRUMP should stay as far away from this corn-filled hellhole as possible.

W and Dole say hello.

[BlueSwan]

Probably a good thing for the party. Up until now they have more or less ignored Carsons succes, probably expecting him to go away soon as he is weak on policy, terrible in debates and is...black. With him leading in Iowa, the others are gonna have to try to take him down. I believe they will succeed.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Good, good. Iowa is a poison pill for the Republican primaries. Just ask Santorum and Huckabee. TRUMP should stay as far away from this corn-filled hellhole as possible.

YES!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Good, good. Iowa is a poison pill for the Republican primaries. Just ask Santorum and Huckabee. TRUMP should stay as far away from this corn-filled hellhole as possible.

W and Dole say hello.

You're saying it's been 16 years since religion mattered to the rest of America? Wow, time flies.