Who is the strongest Democratic candidate against Toomey?

[Talleyrand]

I think they would all lose to Toomey, but who would make it closest?

[Maxwell]

John Fetterman would obviously be the STRONGEST, but Joe Sestak would probably be the most electable.

[JMT]

I think it would be McGinty

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Joe Sestak, but Pat Toomey is likely going to have a race on his hands, regardless due to bent of Pa Dem leaning electorate.

[windjammer]

I think they would all lose to Toomey, but who would make it closest?

Talleyrand always being so pessimistic.


Toomey is so overrated.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's very hard to tell this far out. Sometimes it is tempting to say "oh the anti-establishment choice is always better" because party elites are fairly loathed, but that's what people said about Cunliffe in New Zealand. Sestak is anti-establishment, but he seems like a bit of a dick tbh. Sometimes those sorts of "clash with the party leadership people" aren't doing it because they're super principled men of the people, but merely egotistical prats (see: KRudd).

Similarly McGinty should not be dismissed as an establishment hack right away - but her terrible result in the gubernatorial primary means she is the equivalent of putting generic D on the ballot. Against a reasonably popular incumbent that could be fatal.

Fetterman, a man I hope gets traction, is the wild card. He doesn't look like a democrat or even a politician at all, and would definitely inspire ... comment. He could in the end be most damaging to Sestak, by outestablishmenting him. But is he too idiosyncratic to grease the joints of the machinists from Philladelphia and Pittsburgh that I imagine run the joint in the state party? Will he be the equivalent of a Mike Gravel? Will be unravel under pressure? It's all speculation at this point,

[windjammer]

It's very hard to tell this far out. Sometimes it is tempting to say "oh the anti-establishment choice is always better" because party elites are fairly loathed, but that's what people said about Cunliffe in New Zealand. Sestak is anti-establishment, but he seems like a bit of a dick tbh. Sometimes those sorts of "clash with the party leadership people" aren't doing it because they're super principled men of the people, but merely egotistical prats (see: KRudd).

Similarly McGinty should not be dismissed as an establishment hack right away - but her terrible result in the gubernatorial primary means she is the equivalent of putting generic D on the ballot. Against a reasonably popular incumbent that could be fatal.

Fetterman, a man I hope gets traction, is the wild card. He doesn't look like a democrat or even a politician at all, and would definitely inspire ... comment. He could in the end be most damaging to Sestak, by outestablishmenting him. But is he too idiosyncratic to grease the joints of the machinists from Philladelphia and Pittsburgh that I imagine run the joint in the state party? Will he be the equivalent of a Mike Gravel? Will be unravel under pressure? It's all speculation at this point,

Toomey is basically not a "reasonable popular incumbent".

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Against the metric of "generic R congressmen" (which is the important baseline) though; he is popular. That could change of course - some people in Atlas seem to be under the impression he is a universally beloved hero or some thing, and the fact that the RNC historically does not invest well in Penmsylvania in national years (they always make half-baked attempts, so they can continue to brag that they could really win it if they actually actually tried but whatever man)

[windjammer]

Against the metric of "generic R congressmen" (which is the important baseline) though; he is popular. That could change of course - some people in Atlas seem to be under the impression he is a universally beloved hero or some thing, and the fact that the RNC historically does not invest well in Penmsylvania in national years (they always make half-baked attempts, so they can continue to brag that they could really win it if they actually actually tried but whatever man)

I don't see any proof of his "superiority". He's just a generic republican who won only by 2 points in 2010, which was a republican year.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Against the metric of "generic R congressmen" (which is the important baseline) though; he is popular. That could change of course - some people in Atlas seem to be under the impression he is a universally beloved hero or some thing, and the fact that the RNC historically does not invest well in Penmsylvania in national years (they always make half-baked attempts, so they can continue to brag that they could really win it if they actually actually tried but whatever man)

I don't see any proof of his "superiority". He's just a generic republican who won only by 2 points in 2010, which was a republican year.

Of the three 'blue-state republican senators' that are up in 2016 (Kirk, Johnson, Toomey), Toomey clearly has the best chance at re-election. He also has a better chance than Ayotte and possibly Portman.

[Miles]

Its weird to see windjammer being so pessimistic for most other races, but downplay Toomey here.

[windjammer]

Against the metric of "generic R congressmen" (which is the important baseline) though; he is popular. That could change of course - some people in Atlas seem to be under the impression he is a universally beloved hero or some thing, and the fact that the RNC historically does not invest well in Penmsylvania in national years (they always make half-baked attempts, so they can continue to brag that they could really win it if they actually actually tried but whatever man)

I don't see any proof of his "superiority". He's just a generic republican who won only by 2 points in 2010, which was a republican year.

Of the three 'blue-state republican senators' that are up in 2016 (Kirk, Johnson, Toomey), Toomey clearly has the best chance at re-election. He also has a better chance than Ayotte and possibly Portman.

That doesn't mean he's particularly a strong candidate. I fail to see a single reason why Toomey would overperform over a generic republican incumbent.

Its weird to see windjammer being so pessimistic for most other races, but downplay Toomey here.

Well, I don't that's really weird. My point is that it is more and more difficult for a democrat to hold a statewide seat in a conservative area and a republican to hold a statewide seat in a blue-leaning area.

I don't believe that cannot happen, I'm just more cautious than most of the people here. But I know I can be wrong. And I hope I will be for LA, but I believe Vitter has an advantage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to history, Pa & NH are the bellweathers for the election. Dems cant afford to lose any of the 272 blue wall seats: CO; NV, WI, IL, Pa &NH giving Dems the majority.

[RRusso1982]

The problem for Republicans in Pennsylvania is Democrats often outperform the polls.  In 2010, the final polls all had Toomey 5 points or more ahead of Sestak.  He only won 51-49.  In 2000, IIRC, Bush was actually a couple of points ahead of Gore in the final Pennsylvania polls.  Gore won by 4.  Also in 2000, Santorum easily led Ron Klink in the polls by double digits, as much as 20 points in a few polls.  He only won by 7 points in the end. 

[socaldem]

Okay, wow. I've never heard of this John Fetterman guy, but I have a total crush on him. He is soooo adorably cute. I totally think he could totally build a following.

[Zioneer]

I'd like Fetterman to be the strongest, but realistically McGinty is the strongest, since Sestak is prone to going off the rails (see his incessant walking across the state instead of fundraising), and Fetterman is still too unknown.

[socaldem]

I'd like Fetterman to be the strongest, but realistically McGinty is the strongest, since Sestak is prone to going off the rails (see his incessant walking across the state instead of fundraising), and Fetterman is still too unknown.

But Fetterman has serious viral potential. A nasty McGinty v Sestak fight provides an openong. I see a wellstonian politician whose paul bunyan looks give him blue collar appeal.

[Vega]

I would eat my hat if Fetterman became a U.S. Senator. That being said, it would be awesome.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Against the metric of "generic R congressmen" (which is the important baseline) though; he is popular. That could change of course - some people in Atlas seem to be under the impression he is a universally beloved hero or some thing, and the fact that the RNC historically does not invest well in Penmsylvania in national years (they always make half-baked attempts, so they can continue to brag that they could really win it if they actually actually tried but whatever man)

I don't see any proof of his "superiority". He's just a generic republican who won only by 2 points in 2010, which was a republican year.

Of the three 'blue-state republican senators' that are up in 2016 (Kirk, Johnson, Toomey), Toomey clearly has the best chance at re-election. He also has a better chance than Ayotte and possibly Portman.

Toomey is in a blue state like Pa, that has a Dem bent. Although, he is favored now, GOTV effort in Philly will go 2-1 to Sestak or McGinty causing Dems to slip by, & Pa has a 2.45 PVI in electoral college. Giving Dems an edge. Dems cant afford a loss there.