Predict It Now: Illinois Gov. 2018

[Mr. Illini]

Who will be governor of Illinois after the Nov. 2018 general election?

Will be interesting to revisit this down the road.

[King]

A criminal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bill Daley or Lisa Madigan or Paul Vallas.

[Skye]

A criminal.

/dead

[Holmes]

A criminal.

[Rockefeller GOP]

A criminal.

[Kingpoleon]

Alex Giannoulius, Adam Kissinger, or another youngster seem like possibilities.

[JMT]

Lisa Madigan if she wants it. I think she beats Rauner by about 7-10 points. If she doesn't run, however, Bill Daley or maybe Cheri Bustos might try running. Either would defeat Rauner.

[Mr. Illini]

Lisa Madigan if she wants it. I think she beats Rauner by about 7-10 points. If she doesn't run, however, Bill Daley or maybe Cheri Bustos might try running. Either would defeat Rauner.

Rumor has it that if she does not want it, Treasurer Frerichs may pursue it. Bustos is more likely to succeed Durbin as Senator. Daley may make a run for it, but he's a poor candidate.

[Ebsy]

Rauner is toast.

[JMT]

Lisa Madigan if she wants it. I think she beats Rauner by about 7-10 points. If she doesn't run, however, Bill Daley or maybe Cheri Bustos might try running. Either would defeat Rauner.

Rumor has it that if she does not want it, Treasurer Frerichs may pursue it. Bustos is more likely to succeed Durbin as Senator. Daley may make a run for it, but he's a poor candidate.

Very good point. Seeing as you're from IL, I'm sure you are more knowledgeable about IL politics than I am. Would you say the Governor's seat would be easy for Madigan to win if she wanted it, would she be able to clear a primary? I would imagine she would be a very strong nominee and could beat Rauner.
I would also agree that Bustos will most likely wait for Durbin to retire and then run for senate instead.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

A criminal.

From 1961 to 2013, most of the Governors that served for Illinois were later imprisoned for corruption.

Statistically speaking, it's more likely that Illinois will elect a future criminal as their Governor than not.

[Mr. Illini]

Lisa Madigan if she wants it. I think she beats Rauner by about 7-10 points. If she doesn't run, however, Bill Daley or maybe Cheri Bustos might try running. Either would defeat Rauner.

Rumor has it that if she does not want it, Treasurer Frerichs may pursue it. Bustos is more likely to succeed Durbin as Senator. Daley may make a run for it, but he's a poor candidate.

Very good point. Seeing as you're from IL, I'm sure you are more knowledgeable about IL politics than I am. Would you say the Governor's seat would be easy for Madigan to win if she wanted it, would she be able to clear a primary? I would imagine she would be a very strong nominee and could beat Rauner.
I would also agree that Bustos will most likely wait for Durbin to retire and then run for senate instead.

She could likely clear a primary, perhaps with the exception of Bill Daley because he kind of does what he wants. Frerichs will not run if Madigan runs.

She would win in the general for sure, barring extreme circumstances. For whatever reasons, Illinois Pubs and many Dems dislike Mike Madigan but not his daughter, despite her essentially being a product of him (literally and figuratively). Those family members of mine that are Republicans dislike Mike strongly but vote for Lisa every time she is on the ballot.

[ElectionsGuy]

A Democrat, likely Madigan if so.

[muon2]

Based on 2010 and 2014 I would predict that Lisa Madigan will not run for Gov in 2018 unless Mike Madigan steps down as Speaker. She's declined twice already for that reason, I see no reason to predict a change in her behavior going forward.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bill Daley will Probably run or Paul Vallas.

[Mr. Illini]

Based on 2010 and 2014 I would predict that Lisa Madigan will not run for Gov in 2018 unless Mike Madigan steps down as Speaker. She's declined twice already for that reason, I see no reason to predict a change in her behavior going forward.

Don't you think that it is a possibility that he will retire though? He is 73 and she is in great position.

[muon2]

Based on 2010 and 2014 I would predict that Lisa Madigan will not run for Gov in 2018 unless Mike Madigan steps down as Speaker. She's declined twice already for that reason, I see no reason to predict a change in her behavior going forward.

Don't you think that it is a possibility that he will retire though? He is 73 and she is in great position.

In the summer of 2013 Speaker Madigan had successfully worked a remap and won seats in 2012 despite the tax hike of 2011. At the end of 2014 it would have been his 30th year as Speaker and an easy time to pass the baton. AG Madigan was very interested in running for Gov in 2013, but only on the condition that her father not be the Speaker. If he wouldn't step down then and his health remains good, why would he act differently in two years?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are father and daughter on speaking terms? I always wonder about these political families where the rough and tumble of politicking means they are always at loggerheads. I'm guessing Chrostmas dinner in the Madigon households are a chilly affair.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

A criminal.

Incumbent or non-incumbent criminal?

[RINO Tom]

A criminal.

Incumbent or non-incumbent criminal?

Does it matter?

Anyway, I'll guess another Democrat and Republican gains in the legislature to be a contrarian.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mike Frerichs, state Teasurer, def Rauner, and R's gain in State Senate. State House is locked up until 2023.

[Xing]

If I had to guess now, a Democrat.

[Figueira]

I'm not a fan of making these sorts of predictions this far out, but a Democrat seems like the most likely option.

[Bojack Horseman]

Democratic nominee: 62%
Bruce Rauner: 38%